US Stock Market Outlook: Core PCE is higher than expected! Three major indices are strong, and growth tech stocks are booming before the market opens; Wedbush is not afraid of the cooling of the "AI fever": the valuation of growth tech stocks is more heal

Futu News · Jul 26 20:34

全球宏观

周五盘前，6月核心PCE超预期，三大股指期货走强

美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.6%，高于预期。美国6月核心PCE物价指数月率录得0.1%，与上月持平，符合预期。

贝莱德联合创办人：若特朗普当选美国总统，将对美股构成风险

贝莱德联合创办人Ralph Schlosstein表示，一旦特朗普当选美国总统，将对美国股市构成风险。他称，特朗普曾提出对其他国家的进口产品全面征收10%的关税，关税可能会推高通胀，并且打击股市，虽然美联储不太可能透过加息来直接回应特朗普的关税，但如果通胀最终飙升，亦不能排除加息的可能。

Wedbush无惧“AI热”降温：科技股“挤泡沫”后估值更健康

Wedbush Securities强调，人工智能和云计算迅猛发展趋势下，科技巨头谷歌以及特斯拉相对疲软的季度业绩导致科技股暴跌乃“暂时现象”。全球企业对于人工智能的支出浪潮堪比“第四次工业革命”，人工智能最终将全面提升生产率，因此英伟达等与AI相关的热门科技股回调是正常现象，经调整过后的估值更加健康，为后续创新高奠定基础。

美银：若美国经济继续降温，美股科技巨头将进一步承压

美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett表示，如果美国经济继续降温，美国大型科技股的涨势可能会进一步消退，经济放缓的迹象将推动投资者转向今年落后于昂贵科技巨股的股票。此外，近期数据显示全球经济"疲弱"，大型科技股"离失去主导地位"仅差一份糟糕非农就业数据。

瑞银“逆势唱高”大宗商品：年底上看金价2600美元、布油87美元

对需求疲软的担忧最近打压了大宗商品价格。不过，瑞银继续认为，由于需求强劲而供应有限，大宗商品价格将继续走高，并预计该资产类别将在投资组合中带来强大的多元化优势。瑞银预计金价将在今年年底达到每盎司2600美元，到2025年年中达到每盎司2700美元。欧佩克+原油出口的下降将有助于石油市场趋紧，维持年底布伦特原油目标在每桶87美元不变。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前多数上涨，英伟达、特斯拉、博通涨超2%，阿斯麦涨超4%

本土对手来势汹汹，iPhone在华份额四年来首次跌出前五

IDC的数据显示，在最近一个季度，华为出货量增长了50%，其复苏以及Vivo和小米等本土厂商之间的激烈竞争，将$苹果 (AAPL.US)$推到了市场第六的位置。在这一季度，iPhone的全球发货量较为稳定。苹果将于8月1日公布季报数据。

瑞银维持特斯拉“沽售”评级及197美元目标价，关注自动驾驶及人工智能

瑞银认为，难以为$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$的未来业务给予估值，但目前股价已给予该等领域可观估值。自动驾驶方面，挑战在于时间表，以及成功的可能性不明朗，公司亦承认自动驾驶出租车投入服务视乎科技进展及监管审批。该行认为股价中仅约74美元涉及核心电动车及能源业务，相信建立在股价之上的未来业务估值已经昂贵。该行维持对特斯拉“沽售”评级及197美元目标价。

美银维持Meta“买入”评级，预计次季广告收入按年升20%

美银发表报告，预期$Meta Platforms (META.US)$第二季收入将会超出或符合预期的385亿美元，广告收入按年升20%，EBITDA估计为230亿美元，每股盈利4.98美元，两者均超出市场预期，当中IG用户使用时间及用户增长健康。该行对Meta维持“买入”评级，目标价为550美元，反映明年市盈率预测22倍。

Deckers盘前涨超12%，Q1盈利收入超预期，上调全年利润预测

$Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US)$Q1营业收入8.25亿美元，预估为8.0794亿美元，每股收益4.52美元，预估为3.48美元。公司仍预计2025财年净销售同比增长约10%至4.7亿美元，毛利率现预计为54%，还将其2025财年全年收益指导提高至每股29.75至30.65美元的区间。

高露洁Q2销售额、EPS超预期，上调全年业绩指引

$高露洁 (CL.US)$Q2销售额同比增长5%至505.8亿美元，好于市场预期的501亿美元。有机销售增长率为9%。调整后的每股收益为0.91美元，好于市场预期的0.87美元。该公司重申今年全年销售额增长2%至5%的预期，但将有机销售增长率的指引从此前的5%-7%上调至6%-8%。

淡水河谷Q2净利润增长逾两倍，营收同比增长3%

$淡水河谷 (VALE.US)$Q2净营收为99.20亿美元，较上年同期96.73亿美元增长3%，分析师预期为99.4亿美元;归属于股东的净利润为27.69亿美元，同比大增210%，远远高于分析师预期的17亿美元。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前多数上涨，台积电、蔚来涨近2%

台积电：德国设厂按计划进行，美国亚利桑那厂进展顺利

媒体称，$台积电 (TSM.US)$在德国德累斯顿的半导体晶圆厂，将在几个星期内动工建设，预计今年秋天开工。对此，台积电7月26日下午回应表示，德国设厂按照计划进行，美国亚利桑那厂进展也很顺利。按照规划，台积电德国德累斯顿厂预计今年第四季度开始兴建，2027年量产。

俞敏洪：剥离与辉同行非常遗憾，但确实不可避免

$新东方 (EDU.US)$创始人俞敏洪今日在$东方甄选 (01797.HK)$股东沟通会上表示，对与辉同行剥离这样的结果非常遗憾，但可以说面对公司所面临的现实情况，这一结果确实是不可避免的，甚至这一结果对于公司的发展是有好处的。海通国际研报表示，新东方股价下跌属过度反应，估值为每股97美元。

杰富瑞：网易《永劫无间》首月收入可望突破10亿元

杰富瑞发表研究报告指，$网易 (NTES.US)$新发布的游戏《永劫无间NARAKA：BLADEPOINT》目前在iOS游戏总收入榜排名第三，又拥有4000万预注册量，预计将成为一款注重游戏平衡和创新的大型DAU游戏。该行认为，如果该游戏能持续稳居游戏畅销榜持续头三位，相信首月收入可望突破10亿元的预测。该行维持集团“买入”评级，美股目标价为116美元。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

北京时间22:00 美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值

编辑/emily

Global macro

Before the Friday market, June core PCE exceeded expectations, and the three major stock index futures strengthened.

The annual rate of US June core PCE price index was recorded at 2.6%, higher than expected. The monthly rate of US June core PCE price index was recorded at 0.1%, the same as last month, in line with expectations.

BlackRock Co-Founder: If Trump is elected president of the United States, it will pose a risk to US stocks.

Ralph Schlosstein, co-founder of BlackRock, said that once Trump is elected president of the United States, he will pose a risk to the US stock market. He said that Trump has proposed to levy a 10% tariff on imported products from other countries, which could push up inflation and hit the stock market. Although the Fed is unlikely to respond directly to Trump's duties through interest rate hikes, if inflation ultimately surges, it cannot rule out the possibility of interest rate hikes.

Wedbush is not afraid of the 'AI hot' cooling: Technology stocks 'squeeze the bubble' and their valuations are healthier after the adjustment.

Wedbush Securities emphasizes that the plummeting of technology stocks due to weaker-than-expected quarterly performance of technology giants such as Google and Tesla under the rapid development trend of artificial intelligence and cloud computing is a 'temporary phenomenon'. The wave of enterprise spending on artificial intelligence is comparable to the 'fourth industrial revolution', and artificial intelligence will ultimately improve productivity across the board. Therefore, the callback of hot technology stocks related to AI such as NVIDIA is a normal phenomenon, and their adjusted valuations are healthier and lay a foundation for subsequent highs.

Bank of America: If the US economy continues to cool down, American technology giants will come under further pressure.

Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, said that if the US economy continues to cool, the rise of large US technology stocks may further fade, and signs of economic slowdown will drive investors to turn to stocks that have lagged behind expensive technology giants this year. In addition, recent data shows that the global economy is 'weak', and large technology stocks are only a bad non-farm employment data away from 'losing their dominance'.

UBS: Commodities will rise to $2,600 per ounce at the end of the year and Brent crude oil will rise to $87 per barrel.

Concerns about weak demand have recently pushed commodity prices down. However, UBS continues to believe that limited supply and strong demand will continue to drive commodity prices higher, and this asset class will provide strong diversified benefits in investment portfolios. UBS expects gold prices to reach $2600 per ounce by the end of this year and $2700 per ounce by mid-2025. The decline in OPEC+ crude oil exports will help tighten the oil market, and the year-end Brent crude oil goal will remain unchanged at $87 per barrel.

Hot news

Most of the popular technology stocks rose before the market, and NVIDIA, Tesla, Broadcom rose more than 2%, and ASML Holding rose more than 4%.

Local competitors are rising strongly, and iPhone has fallen out of the top five in China for the first time in four years.

IDC data shows that Huawei's shipments increased by 50% in the last quarter, and its recovery and fierce competition among local manufacturers such as Vivo and Xiaomi pushed it to sixth place in the market. In this quarter, iPhone's global shipments were relatively stable. Apple will announce quarterly data on August 1.$Apple (AAPL.US)$UBS maintains a 'sell' rating and a target price of $197 for Tesla, focusing on autonomous driving and artificial intelligence.

UBS believes that it is difficult to give Tesla a valuation for future business, but the current stock price has given it considerable value in this area. In terms of autonomous driving, the challenge lies in the timetable, and the possibility of success is uncertain. The company also admits that the deployment of self-driving taxis depends on technological progress and regulatory approval. The bank believes that only about $74 of the stock price involve core electric vehicle and energy business, and believes that the future business valuation built on the stock price is already expensive. The bank maintains a 'sell' rating and a target price of $197 for Tesla.

UBS maintains a 'buy' rating on Meta and expects advertising revenue to increase by 20% year-on-year in the second quarter.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$UBS believes it is difficult to give Tesla a valuation for future business, but the current stock price has given it considerable value in this area. In terms of autonomous driving, the challenge lies in the timetable, and the possibility of success is uncertain. The company also admits that the deployment of self-driving taxis depends on technological progress and regulatory approval. The bank believes that only about $74 of the stock price involve core electric vehicle and energy business, and believes that the future business valuation built on the stock price is already expensive. The bank maintains a 'sell' rating and a target price of $197 for Tesla.

Bank of America maintains a 'buy' rating on Meta, and expects advertising revenue to increase by 20% year-on-year in the second quarter.

According to Bank of America's report, it is expected that the revenue in the second quarter will exceed or meet the expected $38.5 billion, advertising revenue will increase by 20% year-on-year, EBITDA is estimated to be $23 billion, earnings per share are $4.98, both are higher than market expectations, and the usage time and user growth of IG are healthy. The bank maintains a 'buy' rating on Meta, with a target price of $550, reflecting a forecast PE of 22 times next year.$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Deckers rose more than 12% before the market, Q1 profits and revenues exceeded expectations, and raised its full-year profit forecast.

Deckers rose more than 12% before the market, Q1 profits and revenues exceeded expectations, and raised its full-year profit forecast.

$Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US)$Q1 revenue of 0.825 billion USD, estimated at 0.80794 billion USD. EPS of 4.52 USD, estimated at 3.48 USD. The company still expects a year-on-year net sales growth of about 10% to 0.47 billion USD for the 2025 fiscal year. The gross margin is now expected to be 54%, and the company has raised its full-year earnings guidance for 2025 to a range of $29.75-$30.65 per share.

Colgate-Palmolive's Q2 sales and EPS exceeded expectations, raising full-year performance guidance.

$Colgate-Palmolive (CL.US)$Q2 sales increased 5% year-on-year to 50.58 billion USD, better than the expected 50.1 billion USD. Organic sales growth rate was 9%. Adjusted EPS was 0.91 USD, beating the market expectation of 0.87 USD. The company reiterated its full-year sales expectations of a 2%-5% increase, but raised its organic sales growth rate guidance from the previous 5%-7% to 6%-8%.

Vale SA's Q2 net profit doubled, revenue increased 3% year-on-year.

$Vale SA (VALE.US)$Q2 net revenue was USD 9.92 billion, up 3% from USD 9.673 billion in the same period last year, and the analyst's expectation is USD 9.94 billion. Net income attributable to shareholders was USD 2.769 billion, an increase of 210% year-on-year, far exceeding the analyst's expectation of USD 1.7 billion.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

Most popular China concept stocks rose before the market, Taiwan Semiconductor and Nio increased nearly 2%.

Taiwan Semiconductor: The German plant is proceeding according to plan, and the Arizona plant in the United States is progressing smoothly.

According to the media,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The semiconductor wafer plant in Dresden, Germany will start construction in a few weeks and is expected to start in the fall of this year. Taiwan Semiconductor responded on the afternoon of July 26 that the German plant is proceeding according to plan, and the Arizona plant in the United States is also progressing smoothly. According to the plan, Taiwan Semiconductor's Dresden plant is expected to start construction in the fourth quarter of this year and will start mass production in 2027.

Yu Minhong: It is very regretful to separate from Hui Tongxing, but it is indeed unavoidable.

$New Oriental (EDU.US)$Founder Yu Minhong today at$EAST BUY (01797.HK)$Founder Yu Minhong expressed regret about the divestment of this result of both companies during the shareholders communication meeting today, but he said that this result was indeed inevitable in the face of the reality that the company faced, and even this result was good for the development of the company. Haitong International research report believes that the drop in the New Oriental stock price is an overreaction, and the estimated value is $97 per share.

Jefferies Financial: Netease's "NARAKA: BLADEPOINT" is expected to break 1 billion yuan in first-month revenue.

Jefferies released a research report stating that the newly released game "NARAKA: BLADEPOINT" ranks third in iOS game total revenue and has 40 million pre-registrations. It is expected to become a large-scale DAU game that emphasizes game balance and innovation. The bank believes that if the game continues to rank in the top three of the game's bestseller list, the predicted revenue for the first month is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan. The bank maintains a "buy" rating for the group, with a target price of $116 for U.S. stocks.$NetEase (NTES.US)$The newly released game "NARAKA: BLADEPOINT" is currently ranked third in the total iOS game revenue chart, with 40 million pre-registrations, and is expected to become a large-scale DAU game that focuses on game balance and innovation. The bank believes that if the game can continue to occupy the top three of the best-selling games, it is expected that the first month's income will exceed the forecast of 1 billion yuan. The bank maintains a "buy" rating for the group with a target price of $116 per share.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July is at 22:00 on July 22.

Editor/Emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

美股前瞻 | 核心PCE超预期！三大期指走强，明星科技股盘前齐嗨；Wedbush无惧“AI热”降温：科技股“挤泡沫”后估值更健康