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Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) Shareholders Have Lost 14% Over 3 Years, Earnings Decline Likely the Culprit

Simply Wall St ·  Jul 26 18:51

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) shareholders, since the share price is down 29% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 17%. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 5.0%. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Verizon Communications isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years that the share price fell, Verizon Communications' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 18% each year. In comparison the 11% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

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NYSE:VZ Earnings Per Share Growth July 26th 2024

This free interactive report on Verizon Communications' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Verizon Communications the TSR over the last 3 years was -14%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Verizon Communications shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 28% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 1.0% per year over five years. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Verizon Communications better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Verizon Communications that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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