公司内销基本 盘稳定，外销订单高增。考虑到行业需求仍处于缓慢弱复苏过程中，市场竞争激烈，我们小幅下调盈利预测，预计公司2024-2026 年EPS 为2.92/3.22/3.50 元，（原值3.02/3.36/3.73 元，下调幅度3%/4%/6%）,Introduction to this report:
The company's export customer is parent company SEB, and long-term order supply remains stable. Domestic sales are expected to grow steadily and increase in domestic sales as the product structure improves and new channels and products continue to contribute more.
Key points of investment:
The company's domestic sales base is stable, and there is a high increase in export orders. Considering that industry demand is still slowly recovering and market competition is fierce, we slightly lowered our profit forecast. We expect the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to be 2.92/3.22/3.50 yuan (original value of 3.02/3.36/3.73 yuan, a reduction of 3%/4%/6%),
+7%/+10%/+9% YoY Considering the company's high dividend rate and steady operating capacity, and referring to the same industry, we gave the company 21xPE in 2024, lowered the target price to 61.3 yuan, and maintained the “gain” rating.
Performance summary: The company achieved revenue of 10.965 billion yuan in 2024H1, +10% year over year, performance of 0.941 billion yuan, and +6.81% year over year. Split to Q2, the company's Q2 revenue was 5.586 billion yuan, +11% year over year, and performance 0.47 billion yuan, +6% year over year.
The company's domestic sales are expected to increase slightly and export sales to grow rapidly in Q2. The company's performance is in line with expectations. At the domestic sales level, according to Jiuqian data, sales of small kitchen appliances including cooking utensils, hot and cold drink processing, cooking, insulation, electric heating, food pretreatment, and water purification equipment in Q2 of 2024 were -3%/+9%/-10%, respectively. Although sales are under pressure on the industry side, the company's traditional small kitchen appliances such as rice cookers and cookware are relatively strong, and have strong brand influence, and are expected to reap superior revenue performance to the industry. At the same time, in the process of slow recovery in industry demand, the company increased investment in imported goods and continued to implement the strategy of promoting new and expensive sales. On the basis of ensuring that the scale of revenue does not decrease, the impact of reduced cost investment efficiency on profit margins is expected to remain flat. The company's domestic sales revenue in Q2 is expected to remain flat, and the overall performance is superior to the industry level.
At the export level, the number of orders gradually increased after customer inventory was digested, and the export sales growth rate is expected to reach more than 30% in Q2. At the performance level, we expect that the increase in the share of export sales with lower gross margin will reduce the company's gross margin. In a situation where demand is weak, the company's actual gross margin has been affected to a certain extent. The company continues to improve marketing efficiency and strictly control various expenses, and profit margins are expected to remain stable in the future.
Looking forward to the future, SEB is expected to maintain stable long-term sales performance as a small European kitchen electric faucet.
The company has announced that the estimated amount of transactions related to the sale of the company to SEB in 2024 is 6.11 billion yuan, compared with the estimated amount of related transactions in 2023. Export sales are expected to grow steadily; domestic sales are expected to grow steadily as the product structure improves and new channels and products continue to contribute more.
Risk warning: Risk of fluctuations in raw material prices and increased industry competition.
