HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) will release its interim results for the end of June next Wednesday (31), dragged down by slowing loan growth and a narrowing half-year net spread, and Morgan Stanley forecasts a year-on-year pre-tax profit of $20.586 billion, down 4.9% year-on-year from $21.657 billion in the same period last year. Excluding the listing basis revenue of notable items was $33.319 billion, down 0.7% year-on-year from $33.54 billion in the same period last year. The bank forecasts HSBC's second-quarter dividend of $0.1 per share, consistent with last year, with a half-year cumulative dividend of $0.41, including the sale of HSBC's Canadian business and a special dividend of $0.21 per share. The Bank forecasts HSBC's common equity tier one capital ratio of 15.3% for the end of June, up 57 basis points year on year and forecast a net margin of 1.51% for the second quarter.
[Loan growth falls in focus on share buybacks]
JPMorgan Chase Hong Kong entered Q2 loan growth under pressure, and the net interest margin was also likely to be affected by a drop in the bank's industry-wide interest rate. Commercial real estate bad loans or risk being pressured, even if expected credit losses are under control. The Bank pointed out that HSBC's operating costs continued to grow strongly in the first quarter, excluding listing base operating expenses for notable projects up by more than 7% year-on-year, but believed that it remained in control of 5% growth for the full year, while Q2 growth slowed to less than 3%. The bank also expects HSBC's capital return outlook to remain solid, following the announcement of a $3 billion buyback in the first quarter, and an additional $2 billion in repurchases will be announced at the interim results.
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Projects│ Forecast for the first half of 2024 │ Year-on-year change
Listing Base Revenue (excluding Noteworthy Items) │ $33.319 billion │ -0.7%
Accounting Baseline Operating Expenditure (excluding Noteworthy Items) │ $16.171 billion │ +5.1%
Expected Credit Loss and Other Credit Impairment Preparedness Changes │ $1.796 billion │ +33.5%
Postage-based pre-tax profit │ $20.586 billion │ -4.9%
Dividend per share │ $0.41*│ +105%
Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio │ 15.3% │ up 0.6 percentage points
* Including the sale of the Canadian business by HSBC, a special dividend of $0.21 per share is distributed.