Hang Seng Bank (00011.HK) will release its interim results next Wednesday (31st) this year, and under the challenge of the macroeconomic situation in Hong Kong, due to the decline in loan growth and the half-year narrowing of net interest margin, we have compiled the predictions of four brokerage firms. Hang Seng's mid-2024 pre-tax profit is expected to range from HKD 10.225 billion to 10.977 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% to 6.7% compared to HKD 10.961 billion in mid-2023, with a median of HKD 10.499 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%.

Based on the predictions of three brokerage firms, Hang Seng's net revenue after deducting expected credit losses and other credit impairment charges for the mid-2024 period is expected to be between HKD 20.17 billion to 20.457 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to 2.6%. We have compiled predictions from four brokerage firms, all of which predict that Hang Seng's second interim dividend in 2024 will be HKD 1.2, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. Investors expect Hang Seng's net interest income to remain stable this year in the context of the macro environment. Based on the completion of the share purchase plan in September, we will pay attention to whether the group will further implement a share repurchase plan. Morgan Stanley expects that Hang Seng may potentially repurchase an additional HKD 2 billion of shares in the fourth quarter.

The table below lists the investment ratings and target prices from 6 brokerages:

Brokerage | Investment Rating | Target Price

Citigroup | Neutral | HKD 109->106

Goldman Sachs │ Sell │ HKD 107

Bank of America Securities │ Buy │ HKD 103.5

Credit Suisse │ Hold │ HKD 100

Morgan Stanley │ In line with market │ HKD 97.1

UBS Group │ Neutral │ HKD 94.5