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研报掘金丨中金:消费品以旧换新措施可拉动GDP增长0.3个百分点 或能提升家电销售15%

Research Report Nuggets | CICC: Consumer goods' old-for-new measures can drive GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points and may increase home appliance sales by 15%.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jul 26 14:17  · Ratings

Gelonghui, July 26 | CICC issued a report stating that the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on “Certain Measures to Strengthen Support for Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in”, proposing to coordinate the arrangement of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds of around 300 billion yuan to increase support for large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in. This shows that active fiscal policies have been further implemented. Overall, the bank is expected to drive GDP growth by about 0.3 percentage points. There are two changes worth paying attention to in this fiscal increase. First, compared with similar support measures in the past, the central financial administration's share has increased. Second, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds support not only investment (equipment renewal), but also consumption (trade-in of consumer goods), focusing on the boosting effects of automobile and household appliances policies. Judging from the specific measures, there are the following points of concern. First, the scope of policy support has been expanded, and the scope of support has been extended to equipment updates in fields such as energy and electricity, old elevators, etc., as well as energy saving, carbon reduction, and safety transformation in key industries, and adding “supporting the scrapping and renewal of old operating ships and old operating trucks.” Second, the funding threshold for ultra-long-term special treasury bonds has been lowered, and the “total project investment must not be less than 0.1 billion yuan” requirement is no longer set to support equipment upgrades for small and medium-sized enterprises. Third, support has been increased, agricultural machinery, new energy buses, etc. renewal subsidy standards have been raised, and the financial interest rate discount ratio for equipment renewal loans has been raised from 1 percentage point to 1.5 percentage points for bank loan principal of “eligible operators. The interest rate discount period is 2 years, and the total interest rate discount amount is 20 billion yuan.” The bank calculated that the principal amount of the loan subject to the fiscal discount was approximately $666.7 billion. In response to the trade-in of household appliances, the measures are proposed: “Individual consumers will be given trade-in subsidies for purchasing 8 types of household appliances, such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, water heaters, household stoves, and range hoods with energy efficiency or water efficiency standards of level 2 or above. The subsidy standard is 15% of the sales price of the product. For the purchase of products with energy efficiency or water efficiency standards of grade 1 or above, an additional 5% subsidy of the product sales price is given. This subsidy is higher than the 2009 10% trade-in standard for home appliances. Based on the 15% subsidy ratio and flexibility, the bank may be able to increase home appliance sales by 15%, accounting for about 0.3% of social zero in 2023.

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