Futu Securities has learned that Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, said that the import volume of Chinese imported cars has continued to decline at an average annual rate of about 8% since 2017, reaching only 800,000 units by 2023. From 2024, the number of automobile imports in the first half of the year will be 0.332 million units, a decrease of 4% year-on-year. With the rise of domestic brands and the acceleration of international brand localization, automotive imports have been continuously depressed in recent years, with negative growth in the first half of the year for three consecutive years.

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1. General Trend of China's Car Imports

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By 2023, the import scale would fall sharply with only 800,000 imports that year, a 10% drop compared to the previous year. The monthly import volume in 2024 remains at around 50,000 units, with significant pressure from continuous shrinkage. From January to May 2024, car imports were 63,000, a year-on-year increase of 7%, an increase of 22% from April, and a rare May growth.

In 2024, the number of imported cars was 0.061 million, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a decrease of 3% month-on-month in May. This is a rare low growth rate in June. From January to June, the number of car imports was 0.332 million, a decrease of 4% year-on-year. With the rise of domestic brands and the acceleration of international brand localization, automotive imports have been continuously depressed in recent years, with negative growth in the first half of the year for three consecutive years.

In 2021, the imported car market stabilized, with a total import volume of 0.93 million units, staying the same year-on-year. In 2022, the import volume of automobiles reached 0.88 million units, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, a relatively large decrease compared to the import volume in 2020. In 2023, the number of imported cars imported was 0.799 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10%.

Recently, the international automobile production has rebounded, and the potential to promote year-on-year consumer growth through increased import of cars still exists.

2. Monthly Trend of Whole Vehicle Imports

The import of passenger cars has returned to a normal trend after the pandemic. Looking at the monthly trend, imports have shown a trend of recovery and growth in recent years, which is basically the same as the trend of domestic cars.

In 2024, the trend is normal for the season. From January to April, imports were weaker than the same period in 2023. In May, the import trend warmed up, but in June, it resumed its downturn. Whether the trend of going up all the way after June 2023 can be realized in the latter part of 2024 is still uncertain.

3. Characteristics of Importing Whole Vehicles

The imported car market was relatively stable from 2017 to 2019. In 2023, the number of imported whole vehicles was 0.8 million, which was relatively large compared to 2022. Passenger car imports are still the best in 2024, and traditional truck imports are worse than average.

Passenger cars account for 98% of the structure of imported cars in the automotive industry this year, of which passenger cars accounted for 44% of the imported sedans in the first half of 2024, and four-wheel-drive SUV imports accounted for 33%. The import of unnamed new energy vehicles was 0.0123 million units, accounting for 4%.

The import of commercial vehicles performed well in 2024, especially the recovery of truck imports in March, but tractors and medium trucks were not strong in May and June.

4. Characteristics of Importing New Energy Vehicles

In recent years, the import of new energy passenger cars has achieved sustained high growth. In June, 1,205 pure electric passenger cars were imported, a decrease of 68%. Plug-in hybrids decreased by 56%, and the import share of new energy vehicles reached 4.3%. The import of pure electric passenger cars performed weakly from January to June.

The market for traditional fuel-powered imported cars has declined significantly. The ratio of diesel trucks has increased, while the ratio of gasoline trucks has decreased, which is related to the demand for traction vehicles. The performance of upscale gasoline pickup truck imports in 2024 was slow.

Recently, the performance of the new energy passenger vehicle market has been relatively strong, and the imported pure electric vehicle market has also performed relatively well.

This year, the import share of new energy passenger cars accounted for 5.9%, and pure electric passenger cars increased slightly compared to last year. Passenger cars are still the absolute main force. The proportion of gasoline cars in trucks is still relatively high, but diesel cars have improved.

5. Characteristics of imported car engine displacement structure The imported passenger car models are concentrated in gasoline models with a displacement of less than 2 liters, accounting for 48% of the entire import volume of passenger cars. The sales volume of large-displacement imported cars in 2.5L-3L, which had strong early import trends, has dropped, while the proportion of 2L-2.5L has rebounded significantly, and the high-end trend of the market is not strong. Large-displacement cars above 4 liters showed a temporary increase in May, with obvious hedging factors.

The imported car models for passenger cars are concentrated in gasoline models with a displacement of less than 2 liters, accounting for 52% of the total imported passenger cars. The sales of large-displacement imported cars with a displacement of 2.5-3 liters, which had a strong trend of imports in the previous period, have declined, and the proportion of 2-2.5 liters has increased significantly, but the trend of market high-end is not strong. In June, cars with a displacement of more than 4 liters temporarily increased, and the risk-avoidance factor was obvious.

II. Automobile Import Market Structure 1. Characteristics of Imported Cars by Country Imported cars are mainly owned by enterprises in Beijing, which has a strong advantage in headquarters economics. The decrease in the scale of imported cars in Jilin Province indicates that there are more imported new energy vehicles.

1. Characteristics of Importing Countries

The import countries of Chinese passenger cars are still Japan, Germany, and the United States as the core, and recent imports from Hungary have performed well, while import volume from Slovakia has slightly decreased.

2. Characteristics of imported regions

Imported cars are mainly owned by enterprises in Beijing, which has a strong advantage in headquarters economics. The decrease in the scale of imported cars in Jilin Province indicates that there are more imported new energy vehicles.

3. Monthly trend of imported vehicles

The import growth of cars such as Hungary and Germany was good in June. In June 2024, the highest imports were from Germany (19,428 vehicles), Japan (17,648 vehicles), the United States (10,612 vehicles), Slovakia (3,566 vehicles), and the United Kingdom (3,109 vehicles). The largest increase in June was from Hungary (1,838 vehicles), Germany (1,060 vehicles), Belgium (93 vehicles), the United States (77 vehicles), and India (70 vehicles). The highest imported cars from January to June 2024 were from Japan (99,782 vehicles), Germany (87,283 vehicles), the United States (56,725 vehicles), Slovakia (27,384 vehicles), and the United Kingdom (24,159 vehicles). The largest increase from January to June was from Japan (25,351 vehicles), Hungary (2,062 vehicles), the Netherlands (1,572 vehicles), and the United States (352 vehicles).

4. Characteristics of imported new energy vehicles

Before 2019, the import volume of new energy vehicles was relatively large, but the significant decline in pure electric vehicles caused by the domestic production of Tesla in 2021.

The development of new energy in 2022-2023 is very good, allowing more companies to import new energy.

In 2024, the import of pure electric vehicles from Germany slowed down, the import of plug-in hybrids from the United States showed strong performance, and the overall trend of hybrid vehicles from Japanese companies was strong.

III. Automobile Market Sales Structure At present, the sales performance of imported cars is slightly worse than that of domestic luxury cars. In 2021, the sales of imported cars reached 940,000 units, a 6% decrease from the previous year.

At present, the sales performance of imported cars is slightly worse, weaker than the trend of domestic luxury car market. In 2021, the sales volume of imported cars reached 940,000 units, a 6% decline compared to 2020. In 2022, the sales volume of imported cars was 840,000 units, a significant decrease of 10% compared to 2021, and it was also relatively weaker than the performance of domestic cars. Finally, in 2023, sales resumed normal growth and reached 910,000 units, an 8% increase.

Currently, the sales of imported cars are slightly worse than the trend of domestic luxury cars. In 2021, the sales of imported cars reached 0.94 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6% compared to 2020.

In 2022, the sales of imported cars were 840,000 units, a significant decrease of 10% compared with 2021, and relatively weaker than the performance of domestic cars. In 2023, it finally returned to positive growth, reaching 910,000 units, an increase of 8%.

The compulsory insurance data for imported cars from January to June 2024 was 0.4 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. Due to the promotion of a low base, the retail of imported cars in the first half of this year was generally weak, and there is still great pressure in the future.

2. Characteristics of imported car brands

In the past few years, the import of ultra-luxury cars has continued to grow, but there has been a 12% decline since 2023, with an accelerated decline from January to June 2024. The overall weakness of luxury cars reflects a temporary slowdown in the purchasing power of the ultra-high-end consumer group.

Currently, the import car market is mainly supported by the demand for luxury cars, with a significant increase in the proportion of imported luxury cars, and the import of Lexus has surged by 20%, showing good performance. BMW, Audi, and Land Rover have performed well overall, while Porsche's recent performance has been weaker.

Imported cars from joint venture brands are rapidly shrinking, and some brands of imported cars from Toyota, Volkswagen, and Subaru have shrunk sharply.

3. Characteristics of regional changes in imported car brands

The demand for the imported car market is generally weak, and the import luxury car market in traditional affluent areas such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hangzhou is under great pressure.

Characteristic of regional changes in luxury car demand.

The demand for the luxury car market is generally weak, and the luxury car market in traditional affluent areas such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing is under great pressure.