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大行评级|大摩:预计渣打中期除税前基本溢利同比增12.5% 或宣布额外10亿美元回购

DBS Ratings: DB: It is expected that Standard Chartered's pre-tax basic excess profit in the medium-term will increase by 12.5% year-on-year or announce an additional $1 billion buyback.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jul 26 10:26  · Ratings

On July 26, Globe quoted that StanChart will release its mid-year performance report till the end of June next Tuesday(July 30th). Morgan Stanley predicts that, the pre-tax core profit of StanChart for mid-2024 stage is 3.72 billion US dollars, a year-on-year rise of 12.5% compared to the same period last year, when it was 3.306 billion US dollars. Pro forma core profit of medium-term accounts was 3.4 billion US dollars, compared to 3.323 billion US dollars a year earlier, a 2.3% increase. In terms of mid-term basic performance, operating income was 9.886 billion US dollars, compared to 8.951 billion US dollars a year earlier, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. The common equity tier one capital adequacy ratio is expected to be 14% at the end of June this year, the same as last year, up 0.4 percentage points from the end of March. Morgan Stanley expects pressure on Hong Kong bank’s loan growth in the second quarter, as well as the bank's net interest margin which may be affected by the decline in interbank interest rates. Morgan Stanley also sees risks of non-performing loans in Hong Kong's commercial real estate, though it is anticipated that the credit losses will be under control. The Bank noted that, since the beginning of this year, the focus of banks' stocks has been on non-interest income. StanChart's non-interest income increased by 33% in the first quarter, but growth in the second quarter is expected to slow to less than 4%. Meanwhile, StanChart's consumer credit costs may become the focus, with total loan impairment expenses in the second quarter expected to rise by 74% YoY, and double on a half-yearly basis. Also, the bank expects to announce an additional $1 billion in repurchases after announcing a $1 billion repurchase at its last annual performance announcement.

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