The company announced its 2024 semi-annual performance forecast. 24H1 expects to achieve net profit of 0.305-0.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.1%-99.3%, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.3-0.32 billion yuan, an increase of 81.6%-93.8% year-on-year. The company achieved net profit of 0.198-0.218 billion yuan in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%-97.9%, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.191-0.211 billion yuan, an increase of 67.8% to 85.3% year-on-year.
The company released a semi-annual performance forecast for 2024, and the profit growth rate once again exceeded expectations. 24H1 expects to achieve net profit of 0.305-0.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.1%-99.3%, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.3-0.32 billion yuan, an increase of 81.6%-93.8% year-on-year. In Q2, the company expects to achieve net profit of 0.198-0.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%-97.9%, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.191-0.211 billion yuan, an increase of 67.8% to 85.3% year-on-year.
The industry is booming, and the number of major core customers continues to grow. The cumulative export value of China's thermos cups in January-June was +21.6% year-on-year, +32.6% year-on-month in June, the cumulative sales volume of Amazon's US glass and water cup industry was +21.5% year-on-year in January-June, and +62.9% year-on-month in June. The overall industry boom continued to be at a high level. Stanley, the company's core customer, continues to innovate in product color and pattern, and sales have maintained a high growth rate based on last year's high base.
Adverse factors have limited impact on the company, and we are optimistic about long-term growth space. The company has refined and automated production capacity, leading surface treatment capacity and flexible production capacity, and Vietnam's production capacity continues to climb, and cooperation with major overseas customers has strong adhesiveness; under the FOB model, shipping is carried by customers, and the high level of industry prosperity will not slow down the pace of customer orders due to higher sea freight levels; the US thermos cup industry is highly dependent on China's export products, and tariffs are still not levied after the four-round tariff list is introduced. If tariffs are imposed and distributed between production processes, it is less likely that future tariffs will increase significantly. The impact is also limited.
The company is a leading manufacturer of thermos cups. It has released industry dividends and has a deep competitive advantage, and its annual performance is expected to maintain a high growth rate. The company enjoys the industry dividends of thermos mug attributes transformation under social marketing. At the same time, with production and supply chain advantages, it is deeply tied to major overseas customers, achieved a high increase in order volume, continued development of production capacity in the future, and is optimistic about long-term growth space. The company's net profit from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 0.7/0.84/0.95 billion yuan respectively, +48%/20%/14% year-on-year, corresponding to a PE of 11.9 in 24, maintaining a “highly recommended” investment rating.
Risk warning: The transformation of thermos cup attributes falls short of expectations, increased risk of competition, risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and risk of large stock price fluctuations.