Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Author: Xu Wenqiang.

BlackRock said in a post that the tense situation of the 2024 US presidential election is becoming increasingly intense, and this political war not only signifies the restructuring of the US political landscape, but its chain reaction will also profoundly affect the global political and economic situation and may bring more uncertainty to the stock market. The US election cycle has its unique internal logic, and the summer slump of the US stock market often improves in the autumn. BlackRock believes that this may be related to investors' wait-and-see attitude before the election, and the market will be more affected by the election only when the party congress and the autumn campaign really start.

BlackRock pointed out that historical data shows that the period from May to September is usually the 'soft period' of the US stock market, and the average monthly return during this period (about 0.1%) is far lower than the return level of other months (about 1%). But under the special background of 'election years', this seasonal rule often shifts from summer to autumn. Although the US stock market has shown good performance under the support of strong corporate profit growth this year, in this period full of variables, investors need to be more alert to some seasonal factors and upcoming major events. In addition, BlackRock stated that market sentiment also has a significant impact on short-term investments. Faced with high inflation, Fed policy adjustments, and escalating geopolitical risks, investor sentiment is gradually becoming cautious.

In addition, BlackRock stated that market sentiment also has a significant impact on short-term investments. Faced with high inflation, Fed policy adjustments, and escalating geopolitical risks, investor sentiment is gradually becoming cautious.

Editor/Jeffy