US Stock Market Overview: US Q2 GDP Exceeds Expectations! Three major equity index futures all turned upward. During the earnings season, Ford Motor plummeted more than 13% before the market opened, while American Airlines fell more than 7%.

Futu News · Jul 25 20:38

全球宏观

周四盘前，二季度实际GDP超预期，美股三大股指期货全线转涨

美国第二季度实际GDP年化初值环比升2.8%，预期升2.0%，第一季度终值升1.4%。美国第二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值录得2.9%，高于预期的2.7%。

美国经济分析局：最新GDP数据反映了消费支出等三方面的增长

根据美国经济分析局发布的“预先”估计，2024年第二季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）年增长率为2.8%。第一季度，实际GDP增长了1.4%。实际GDP的增长主要反映了消费支出、私人库存投资和非住宅固定投资的增长。消费支出的增加反映了服务和商品的增长。在服务业中，贡献最大的是保健、住房和公用事业以及娱乐服务。在商品方面，贡献最大的是汽车和零部件、娱乐用品和车辆、家具和耐用家用设备，以及汽油和其他能源产品。私人库存投资的增加主要反映了批发贸易和零售业的增长，这部分被采矿业、公用事业和建筑业的减少所抵消。在非住宅固定投资中，设备和知识产权产品的增长部分被结构投资的减少所抵消。进口增长主要是由不包括汽车在内的资本货物带动的。

11月前美联储应按兵不动？诺奖得主：9月降息对大选“影响不大”

诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗-克鲁格曼日前表示，考虑到货币政策对实体经济的滞后影响，美联储9月份降息对大选“应该影响不大”，克鲁格曼表示“美联储当下所采取的行动在相当长的几个月内都不会对实体经济产生影响，直到大选之后。” 他还表示，无论谁担任美联储主席，我们都将看到货币政策的政治化。

美银：牛市还没结束！四个看涨信号暗示美股将再创新高

美国银行技术分析师Stephen Suttmeier表示，正在进行的牛市健康状况良好，投资者普遍转向较小公司的股票，强劲的技术因素加上选举年末期的良好季节性因素，可能有助于推动股市在今年晚些时候创下新高。以下是支撑股市持续上涨的四个看涨指标：垃圾债券利差收窄；企业债券利差紧缩；投资者持有创纪录的6万亿美元货币市场基金；美联储金融状况指数确认了股市上涨。

小盘股“大轮动”还能持续多久？可能由这三件事说了算！

板块轮动令美股发生了翻天覆地的变化，但小盘股走高的趋势是否会持续下去？对此市场专业人士指出，可能撼动小盘股涨势的因素包括：(1)美联储降息，“如果美联储是因为看到经济疲软而需要开始降息，对经济更为敏感的小盘股可能面临困境”;(2)企业盈利，对小盘股盈利增长的预期一直在升温，但如果这种乐观情绪消失，小盘股可能无法保持积极势头;(3)特朗普交易，未来特朗普政府的政策似乎将有利于规模较小、更加专注于国内市场的公司。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前多数下跌，英伟达、特斯拉、博通跌超1%

特斯拉盘前续跌超1%，Q2业绩逊预期，多家大行下调目标价

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$最新公布的业绩显示，第二季度调整后每股收益0.52美元，低于预期的0.6美元；营收255亿美元，预期246.3亿美元；净利润14.78亿美元，低于预期的18.06亿美元；毛利润率18%，预期17.4%。第二季度自由现金流(FCF)为13.4亿美元，低于预期的19.2亿美元。

绩后多家投行下调目标价，其中，高盛将其目标价从248美元下调至230美元，维持中性评级；花旗将其目标价从274美元下调至258美元；杰富瑞认为次季业绩无助大幅提升市场预期，维持予其“持有”评级，目标价为165美元。

特斯拉遭猛烈抛售？Wedbush力挺：AI故事刚开始，还能再涨39%！

华尔街投行韦德布什分析师Dan Ives认为，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$仍有很多值得看好的地方，真正的增长故事在于其在AI方面的雄心。艾夫斯预测，特斯拉的人工智能机器人出租车计划将为新的增长铺平道路，而其备受期待的廉价车型将提振销量。此外，他重申了韦德布什对特斯拉300美元的目标价，这意味着该股能较当前水平上涨约39%。

花旗：英伟达推出NVIDIA AI Foundry是进一步为企业解锁AI的最新举措

花旗发表研究报告指，$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$宣布推出NVIDIA AI Foundry，该服务面向企业和国家，旨在利用Llama 3.1以及NVIDIA软件、运算基础设施和专业知识，帮助其特定领域的行业用例创建客制化超级模型。该行将此视为英伟达进一步为企业解锁AI的最新举措。在SIGGRAPH 2024即将到来之际，该行相信Meta和英伟达将重点放在这个消息，作为两间公司在AI GPU以外的AI领域合作的例子。花旗对英伟达持“买入”评级，目标价为150美元。

福特汽车盘前大跌超13%，Q2盈利大幅低于预期，全年业绩展望未改

二季度$福特汽车 (F.US)$的营收为478亿美元，同比增长6.2%；调整后息税前利润为28亿美元，同比下降26.3%，此前分析师预期同比降1.8%至37.3亿美元。二季度调整后每股收益(EPS)为0.47美元，同比下降34.7%，大幅低于预期，体现在汽车市场增长放缓之际，保修成本严重拖累公司盈利。

美国航空盘前跌超7%，公司下调全财年经调整后每股收益预期

$美国航空 (AAL.US)$第二季度经调整后每股收益1.09美元，预估1.05美元；第二季度客运收入132亿美元，预期132.1亿美元。美国航空预计第三季度经调整后每股收益为零，市场预估为0.49美元。预计全财年经调整后每股收益0.7-1.3美元，此前预计2.25-3.25美元。

IBM盘前涨近3%，二季度AI业务预订规模大幅增加

$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$第二季度营收同比增长2%，达到158亿美元，高于分析师预期的156亿美元；调整后每股盈利2.43美元，高于分析师预期的2.2美元。自2023年年中以来，IBM人工智能咨询和人工智能软件的预订规模已超过20亿美元，这是IBM在4月份公布的上一季度业绩报告中披露的大约10亿美元业务帐簿的足足两倍。此外，IBM预计全年自由现金流将超过120亿美元。

意法半导体盘前跌超12%，Q2营收下滑25%逊预期，再次下调今年营收指引

$意法半导体 (STM.US)$第二季度营收为32.3亿美元，同比下降25%，略低于分析师一致预期的32亿美元；稀释后每股盈利为0.38美元，高于预期的0.35美元。此外，由于此前库存过剩和汽车制造商销量下降抑制了需求，该公司下调今年的营收预期至132亿-137亿美元，此前预期为140亿-150亿美元。

波音承认在与美国司法部的交易中犯有欺诈罪

法庭文件显示，$波音 (BA.US)$承认犯有欺诈罪，这是与美国司法部达成协议的一部分，并同意支付2.436亿美元的罚款。美国司法部指出，这家飞机制造商在其工厂犯了错误，未能确保关键飞机记录的准确性和完整性。波音公司证实已向司法部提交了一份详细的认罪协议。

全球最大温控仓储及物流商Lineage在美IPO传集资44.5亿美元，或成今年全球最大IPO

外媒引述消息人士指，全球最大温控仓储及物流商$Lineage (LINE.US)$将透过美国IPO集资44.5亿美元，有望成为今年全球最大宗IPO。总部位于密歇根州的Lineage发行近5700万股，消息指每股定价78美元，位于指导价范围70至82美元的较高水平。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前涨跌不一，蔚来、京东、小鹏涨超2%

新东方美股盘前跳水跌超5%，董宇辉官宣离职

$东方甄选 (01797.HK)$宣布董宇辉离职，董宇辉还将收购与辉同行100%股权。东方甄选在港交所公告称，董宇辉已决定不再担任公司雇员及公司一个合并联属实体的高级管理层，该离任乃由于董宇辉的职业抱负、对彼其他事业的投入及个人时间安排，并于2024年7月25日生效。

摩根大通：重申网易为行业首选，第三季起网游收入增长加快

摩通重申$网易 (NTES.US)$为中国网络游戏行业的首选股，预期《永劫无间》手游的强劲表现，加上《七日世界》于7月初成功于全球推出，应可推动网络游戏收入自第三季起加速增长及股价重估。摩通认为网易目前12倍2024年市盈率的估值为过去五年的低位水平，相对于全球领先线上游戏同业20倍以上的估值，是一个有吸引力的入市点。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

编辑/emily

Global macro

Before the opening of the market on Thursday, the actual GDP of the second quarter exceeded expectations, and the three major equity index futures of the U.S. stock market all turned up.

The actual annualized quarterly initial value of US GDP in the second quarter increased 2.8% QoQ, higher than the expected 2.0%, and the final value of Q1 increased 1.4%. The initial value of the core PCE price index for the second quarter of the United States recorded a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of 2.9%, higher than the expected 2.7%.

USA Bureau of Economic Analysis: The latest GDP data reflects growth in three areas, including consumer spending.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' 'advance' estimate, the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 2.8% annually in the second quarter of 2024. Real GDP increased by 1.4% in the first quarter. The growth in real GDP mainly reflects the growth of consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. The increase in consumer spending reflects growth in both services and goods. In the service sector, the largest contributions come from health care, housing and utilities, and entertainment services. In terms of goods, the largest contributions come from autos and parts, entertainment supplies and vehicles, furniture and durable household equipment, and RBOB gasoline and other energy products. The increase in private inventory investment mainly reflects growth in wholesale trade and retail trade, which was offset partly by decreases in mining, utilities, and construction. In nonresidential fixed investment, the growth in equipment and intellectual property products was partly offset by a decrease in structural investment. The increase in imports was mainly driven by capital goods other than automotive.

Should the Federal Reserve hold steady before November? Nobel laureate says, "Interest rate cut in September has little influence on the election."

Nobel laureate in economics Paul Krugman recently stated that considering the lagging impact of monetary policy on the real economy, the Fed's rate cut in September should have little effect on the election. Krugman said that the action currently taken by the Fed will not have an impact on the real economy for several months until after the election. He also said that whoever becomes the Fed chairman, we will see the politicization of monetary policy.

Bank of America: The bull market is not over yet! Four bullish signals suggest that the US stock market will hit a new high.

Stephen Suttmeier, a technical analyst at Bank of America, said that the ongoing bull market is in good health. Investors generally turn to stocks of smaller companies. The strong technical factors plus the good seasonal factors at the end of the election year may help push the stock market to new highs later this year. Here are four bullish indicators to support the continuous rise of the stock market: the spread of junk bond yields is narrowing; corporate bond spreads are tightening; investors hold a record $6 trillion money market fund; the Fed's financial conditions index confirms the rise of the stock market.

How long can the small-cap stock 'great rotation' last? It may depend on these three things! Professional analysts in the market pointed out that factors that may shake the upward trend of small-cap stocks include: (1) The Fed's rate cut. 'If the Fed needs to start cutting interest rates because it sees a weak economy, small-cap stocks that are more sensitive to the economy may face difficulties.'; (2) Corporate earnings. Expectations of earnings growth for small-cap stocks have been increasing, but if this optimism disappears, small-cap stocks may not maintain their positive momentum; (3) Trump's trade deal. The Trump administration's policies in the future seem to favor smaller companies that focus more on the domestic market.

The sector rotation has caused a huge change in the US stock market, but will the upward trend of small-cap stocks continue? Market professionals pointed out that factors that may shake the upward trend of small-cap stocks include: (1) The Fed's rate cut. 'If the Fed needs to start cutting interest rates because it sees a weak economy, small-cap stocks that are more sensitive to the economy may face difficulties.'; (2) Corporate earnings. Expectations of earnings growth for small-cap stocks have been increasing, but if this optimism disappears, small-cap stocks may not maintain their positive momentum; (3) Trump's trade deal. The Trump administration's policies in the future seem to favor smaller companies that focus more on the domestic market.

Hot news

Most Star Tech stocks fell before the market. Nvidia, Tesla, and Broadcom fell more than 1%.

Tesla continued to decline by more than 1% before the market, and Q2 performance was lower than expected. Several major banks lowered their target price.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The latest published results show that the adjusted EPS in the second quarter was $0.52, lower than the expected $0.6; revenue was $25.5 billion, expected $24.63 billion; net profit was $1.478 billion, lower than expected $1.806 billion; gross profit margin was 18%, expected 17.4%. The FCF in the second quarter was $1.34 billion, lower than the expected $1.92 billion.

After the earnings, several investment banks lowered their target prices, including Goldman Sachs, which lowered its target price from $248 to $230 and maintained a neutral rating; Citigroup lowered its target price from $274 to $258; Jefferies believes that the Q2 performance is not enough to significantly improve market expectations, maintaining a 'hold' rating with a target price of $165.

Is Tesla facing fierce selling? Wedbush supports: AI story has just begun, can rise another 39%!

Dan Ives, an analyst at Wall Street investment bank Wedbush, believes that$Tesla (TSLA.US)$There are still many things worth looking forward to, and the real growth story lies in its ambition in AI. Ives predicts that Tesla's AI robot taxi plan will pave the way for new growth, and its highly anticipated low-priced model will boost sales. In addition, he reiterated the target price of $300 for Wade Bush, which means that the stock may rise by about 39% from its current level.

Citi: NVIDIA AI Foundry is a further step to unlock AI for enterprises.

According to Citigroup's research report,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$announced the launch of NVIDIA AI Foundry, a service aimed at enterprises and countries, to use Llama 3.1 and NVIDIA software, computing infrastructure, and expertise to help create customized supermodels for specific industry use cases. The bank sees this as NVIDIA's latest move to unlock AI for enterprises. As SIGGRAPH 2024 is about to arrive, the bank believes that Meta and NVIDIA will focus on this news as an example of the two companies' cooperation in the AI field outside of AI GPUs. Citigroup maintains a 'buy' rating on NVIDIA and a target price of $150.

Ford Motor fell more than 13% in pre-market trading, with Q2 earnings significantly lower than expected and full-year performance unchanged.

Q2 revenue was $47.8 billion, up 6.2% YoY; Adjusted EBIT was $2.8 billion, down 26.3% YoY, the previous analyst expectation was a YoY decline of 1.8% to $3.73 billion. Q2 adjusted EPS was $0.47, down 34.7% YoY, much lower than expected, reflecting the serious drag on company profits caused by warranty costs as auto market growth slows. $Ford Motor (F.US)$American Airlines fell more than 7% in pre-market trading, with the company lowering its adjusted EPS outlook for the full year. Q2 adjusted EPS was $1.09, estimated $1.05; Q2 passenger revenue was $13.2 billion, estimated $13.21 billion. American Airlines expects Q3 adjusted EPS to be zero, while the market estimates $0.49. It is expected that the full-year adjusted EPS will be $0.7-1.3, compared to the previous expectation of $2.25-3.25.

IBM rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading, with Q2 AI business bookings significantly increasing. Q2 revenue grew 2% YoY to $15.8 billion, higher than the analyst expectation of $15.6 billion; adjusted EPS was $2.43, higher than the analyst expectation of $2.2. Since mid-2023, IBM's AI consulting and AI software bookings have exceeded $2 billion, twice the approximately $1 billion business booked disclosed in the previous quarter's earnings report in April. In addition, IBM expects free cash flow to exceed $12 billion for the full year.

$American Airlines (AAL.US)$STMicroelectronics fell more than 12% in pre-market trading, with Q2 revenue down 25% below expectations and a further downward revision to revenue guidance for the year. Q2 revenue was $3.23 billion, down 25% YoY, slightly below the consensus analyst expectation of $3.2 billion; diluted EPS was $0.38, higher than the expected $0.35. In addition, due to prior inventory overhang and demand dampening from declining auto manufacturer sales, the company lowered its revenue guidance for the year to $13.2 billion-13.7 billion, down from the previous expectation of $14 billion-15 billion.

IBM rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading, with a significant increase in second quarter AI business bookings.

$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$As part of the agreement with the US Department of Justice, the aircraft manufacturer has admitted to committing fraud and agreed to pay a $243.6 million fine. The US Department of Justice pointed out that the airplane manufacturer made mistakes at its factories and failed to ensure the accuracy and completeness of critical airplane records. Boeing confirmed that it has submitted a detailed plea agreement to the Department of Justice.

Lineage Logistics, the world's largest temperature-controlled warehousing and logistics company, is reportedly planning to raise $4.45 billion through an IPO in the United States, potentially becoming the world's largest IPO this year. Headquartered in Michigan, Lineage plans to issue nearly 57 million shares, with each share priced at $78, at the higher end of the indicative range of $70 to $82.

$STMicroelectronics (STM.US)$China concept stocks were mixed in pre-market trading, with Nio Inc., JD.com, and XPeng rising by more than 2%.

Boeing admits to committing fraud in its trade with the USA Department of Justice.

New Oriental Education & Technology Group fell more than 5% in pre-market trading, with Dong Yuping announcing his resignation. Dong Yuping announced that he will no longer serve as an employee of the company and a senior management team member of a subsidiary of the company due to his career aspirations, personal investment, and personal time arrangements, effective as of July 25, 2024. Dong Yuping will also acquire 100% equity of a startup with Hui Tongxing. $Boeing (BA.US)$As part of an agreement with the United States Department of Justice, the company admits to committing fraud and agrees to pay a fine of 0.2436 billion dollars. The Department of Justice stated that the aircraft manufacturer made errors at its factories and failed to ensure the accuracy and completeness of critical aircraft records. Boeing confirmed that it has submitted a detailed plea agreement to the Department of Justice.

JPMorgan reaffirmed Netease as the top pick for the industry, with accelerating net game revenue growth expected from Q3.

Software industry: Pre-market trading of popular Chinese concept stocks had mixed gains and losses, with Nio Inc., JD.com, and Xpeng rising by more than 2%. $Lineage (LINE.US)$The quarterly revenue of Q2 of 2021 is $47.8 billion, a YoY growth of 6.2%; the adjusted EBIT is $2.8 billion, a YoY decrease of 26.3%; the previous forecast of analysts was a YoY decline of 1.8% to $3.73 billion. The adjusted EPS of Q2 reduces 34.7% YoY to be $0.47, which is much lower than the expectation. The serious drag on the profit of the company was mainly caused by warranty costs as the auto market growth slows. The estimation of the passenger revenue in Q2 is 13.2 billion dollars, which was lower than the expected 13.21 billion dollars. Though the estimation of Q2 adjusted EPS is 1.09 dollars, which is higher than the expected 1.05 dollars, the share of American Airlines had dropped over 7% in pre-market trading as the company lowered the full-year adjusted EPS outlook. The adjusted EPS of Q3 is estimated to be zero, compared to the market estimate of 0.49 dollars. The full-year adjusted EPS is expected to be 0.7-1.3 dollars, while the previous expectation was 2.25-3.25 dollars.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

After mid-2023, IBM's AI consultation and software booking has exceeded two billion dollars, twice the business booked disclosed in the previous quarter. Q2 revenue grew by 2% YoY to 15.8 billion dollars, higher than the analyst estimation of 15.6 billion dollars. The adjusted EPS was 2.43 dollars, greater than the 2.2 dollars expected by the analysts. IBM is expected to have a free cash flow exceeding 12 billion dollars for the full year.

Lineage Logistics, the world's largest temperature-controlled warehousing and logistics company, is reportedly planning to raise $4.45 billion through an IPO in the United States, potentially becoming the world's largest IPO this year. Headquartered in Michigan, Lineage plans to issue nearly 57 million shares, with each share priced at $78, at the higher end of the indicative range of $70 to $82.

$EAST BUY (01797.HK)$Dong Yuhui announced his resignation and will also acquire 100% equity of Hui Tongxing. East Buy announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that Dong Yuhui has decided to no longer serve as an employee of the company or a senior management team member of a related entity due to his professional ambitions, investment in other businesses, and personal time arrangements, effective on July 25, 2024.

As part of the agreement with the US Department of Justice, the aircraft manufacturer has admitted to committing fraud and agreed to pay a $243.6 million fine. The US Department of Justice pointed out that the airplane manufacturer made mistakes at its factories and failed to ensure the accuracy and completeness of critical airplane records. Boeing confirmed that it has submitted a detailed plea agreement to the Department of Justice.

JPMorgan reaffirmed Netease as the top pick for the industry, with accelerating net game revenue growth expected from Q3. $NetEase (NTES.US)$STMicroelectronics fell more than 12% in pre-market trading, with Q2 revenue down 25% below expectations and a further downward revision to revenue guidance for the year. Q2 revenue was $3.23 billion, down 25% YoY, slightly below the consensus analyst expectation of $3.2 billion; diluted EPS was $0.38, higher than the expected $0.35. In addition, due to prior inventory overhang and demand dampening from declining auto manufacturer sales, the company lowered its revenue guidance for the year to $13.2 billion-13.7 billion, down from the previous expectation of $14 billion-15 billion.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Editor/Emily

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美股前瞻 | 美国二季度GDP超预期！三大股指期货全线转涨；财报季再迎痛击，福特汽车盘前暴跌超13%，美国航空跌超7%