Sands China Limited (1928.HK): VIP and midfield revenue recovery fell short of industry property refurbishment or continued loss of share

華泰證券 · Jul 25 · Researches

金沙中国：维持买入，目标价19.5 港元，对应25 年EV/EBITDA 为10x港股金沙中国的母公司美股LVS 于美国时间7 月24 日盘前发布24Q2 财报，金沙中国净收入1754 百万美元，同比+7.7%，环比-3.1%；经调整EBITDA为561 百万美元，同比+3.7%，环比-8%，恢复至19 年的73.3%；EBITDAMargin 为32%，低于19Q2/23Q2/24Q1 的36.1%/33.2%/33.7%。24Q2 金沙中国并未派息。由于业绩持续低迷，导致母公司LVS 盘后一度跌-3.6%。

我们分别将公司24/25/26 年博彩毛收入从547/634/746 亿港元下调至535/603/693 亿港元，恢复至19 年的 80%/90%/103%，经调整EBITDA为185/210/248 亿港元，恢复至19 年的 75%/85%/100%，EBITDA margin为32.8%/33.2%/34.0%。

24Q2 VIP 及中场恢复不及行业，物业翻新改善营收有望在25 年体现LVS 指引威尼斯人的金光综艺馆装修在24 年11 月恢复开放，伦敦人内喜来登一二期翻新则分别于24Q4、25 年5 月完成，届时金沙接待能力有望提升，但翻新期间业绩受客流量低迷影响，VIP 与中场业务均不及行业恢复情况。金沙中国24Q2 博彩毛收入1710 百万美元，同比+13.8%，环比持平，恢复至19Q2 的81.2%，超过行业恢复的77%。其中，VIP 毛收入179 百万美元，恢复至32%（行业38%），同比-1.6%，环比+39.8%；中场毛收入1365 百万美元，恢复至98%（行业114%），同比+16.7 %，环比-3.5%；老虎机毛收入166 百万美元，恢复至103.3%（行业86%），同比+9.9%，环比-1.2%。非VIP 业务毛收入的环比下降或导致公司整体份额的丢失。

非博彩恢复受物业翻新拖累，EBITDA margin 同比环比均有所下降金沙24Q2 EBITDA Margin 同比较低主系去年同期张学友演唱会带来一定客流，但由于业绩复苏受物业翻新影响较大，EBITDA Margin 环比同样下降。作为金沙“台柱”，威尼斯人24Q2 净收入686 百万美元，占总体净收入的39%，经调整EBITDA 262 百万美元，恢复至19 年的78%，EBITDAMargin 为38.2%，对比低于19Q2/23Q2/24Q1 的39.3%/38.6%/40.7%；伦敦人24Q2 净收入444 百万美元，EBITDA 103 百万美元，EBITDA Margin为23.2%，对比低于23Q2/24Q1 的25.6%/ 30.6%。公司于业绩会承诺至2032 年在澳门投资至少45 亿美元，其中93%用于非博彩项目；承诺资本支出共计34 亿美元，其中24 年向金沙中国支出7 亿美元。

上半年访澳旅客数据达预期，但博彩业后续是否有望丁财两旺？

对比澳门政府预计的24 年访澳游客3300 万人，24H1 访澳旅客已过预期的一半，达1672 万人，恢复至19 年的82.4%，大陆游客为主力。其中五一/端午假期入境旅客为60.4/34.3 万人次，分别恢复至19 年的76%/87%，日均12.1/11.4 万人次，超过去年同期的9.8/9.5 万人次。此外，目前澳门总GGR 达1138 亿澳元，同样超过政府预期2160 亿澳元的一半。旅客数与博彩业恢复均有望达政府预期。我们预计24/25 年行业GGR 有望恢复至19年的79%/86%，即2310/2521 亿澳元，VIP GGR 与中场及老虎机GGR 则恢复至19 年的34%/36%、118%/130%。

风险提示：政策落地不及预期，测算存在误差，海外博彩市场竞争加剧。

Sands China: Maintaining purchases, target price of HK$19.5, corresponding to a 25-year EV/EBITDA of 10x Hong Kong shares, the parent company of Sands China, released 24Q2 earnings on July 24, US time. Sands China's net revenue was 1,754 million US dollars, +7.7% year over year, -3.1% month on month; adjusted EBITDA was 561 million US dollars, +3.7% year over month, back to 73.3% in 2019; eBitdamargin was 32%, lower than 19Q2/23Q2 36.1%/33.2%/33.7% of /24Q1. 24Q2 Sands China did not pay dividends. Due to continued sluggish performance, parent company LVS fell -3.6% after the market.

We reduced the company's gross gaming revenue in 24/25/26 from HK$54.7/63.4/74.6 billion to HK$53.5/60.3/69.3 billion, to 80%/90%/103% in 2019, adjusted EBITDA of 18.5/21/24.8 billion to 75%/85%/100% in 2019, and the EBITDA margin was 32.8%/33.2%/34.0%.

The 24Q2 VIP and midfield recovery falls short of the industry. The improved revenue from property refurbishment is expected to reflect LVS's guidance for the Venetian's Cotai Arena renovation to resume opening in November 24, while the Londoner Sheraton Phase 1 and 2 renovations will be completed in 24Q4 and May 25 respectively. At that time, Sands's reception capacity is expected to improve, but performance during the renovation period was affected by low traffic, and the VIP and midfield businesses fell short of the industry's recovery. Sands China's 24Q2 gaming gross revenue was 1,710 million US dollars, +13.8% year over year, flat month-on-month, recovering to 81.2% in 19Q2, exceeding 77% of the industry's recovery. Among them, VIP gross revenue was $179 million, recovering to 32% (38% of the industry), -1.6% YoY, +39.8%; midfield gross revenue of 1365 million dollars, recovering to 98% (industry 114%), +16.7% YoY, -3.5% month-on-month; gross slot machine revenue of 166 million dollars, recovering to 103.3% (86% of the industry), +9.9% YoY and -1.2% month-on-month. The month-on-month decline in gross revenue from non-VIP businesses may have led to a loss of the company's overall share.

The recovery of non-gaming was dragged down by property renovations. EBITDA margins all declined month-on-month. Sands 24Q2 EBITDA margin was also relatively low. Mainly, Zhang Xueyou's concert in the same period last year brought in some traffic, but due to the recovery in performance being greatly affected by property refurbishment, EBITDA margin also declined month-on-month. As the “pillar” of Sands, Venetian's 24Q2 net revenue was 686 million dollars, accounting for 39% of the overall net revenue, after an adjusted EBITDA of 262 million dollars, recovering to 78% in 2019. EbitDamargin was 38.2%, compared with 39.3%/38.6%/40.7% lower than 19Q2/23Q2/24Q1; Londoners 24Q2 net income was 444 million dollars, EBITDA 103 million dollars, EBITDA margin was 23.2%, compared to less than 25.6%/30.6% of 23Q2/24Q1. The company will pledge to invest at least 4.5 billion US dollars in Macau by 2032, of which 93% will be used for non-gaming projects; it will commit a total capital expenditure of 3.4 billion US dollars, of which 0.7 billion US dollars will be spent on Sands China in 24 years.

The number of visitors to Australia in the first half of the year met expectations, but can the gaming industry expect Ding Cai to prosper in the future?

Compared to the Macau government's estimate of 33 million visitors to Macao in '24, the 24H1 visitors have already surpassed half of expectations, reaching 16.72 million, returning to 82.4% in '19, with mainland tourists as the main force. Among them, 0.604/0.343 million visitors arrived during the May 1st and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, recovering to 76%/87% respectively in '19, with an average of 0.121/0.114 million per day, exceeding 0.098/0.095 million in the same period last year. Furthermore, Macau currently has a total GGR of 113.8 billion Australian dollars, which also exceeds half of the government's estimate of 216 billion Australian dollars. Both the number of visitors and the recovery of the gaming industry are expected to meet government expectations. We expect the industry GGR to return to 79%/86% in '19, or A$231/252.1 billion, while VIP GGR and midfielder and slot machine GR will return to 34%/36%, 118%/130% in '19.

Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations, estimates are erroneous, and competition in overseas gaming markets is intensifying.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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金沙中国有限公司(1928.HK)：VIP及中场收入恢复不及行业 物业翻新或导致份额持续流失

Sands China Limited (1928.HK): VIP and midfield revenue recovery fell short of industry property refurbishment or continued loss of share

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金沙中国有限公司(1928.HK)：VIP及中场收入恢复不及行业物业翻新或导致份额持续流失