Key points of investment
The company released 24H1 performance forecast:
Q2 achieved net profit of 0.198-0.218 billion yuan (median value of 0.21 billion yuan), +80%-102% (median value +89%), after deducting non-return net profit of 0.191-0.211 billion yuan (median value of 0.201 billion yuan), and +68% to +85% (median value +76%). After Q1 exceeded expectations, Q2's performance exceeded expectations.
The thermos cup circuit is booming, and the scale effect shows that the combined performance of Stanley, the company's main customer, continues to grow rapidly in the US core region (according to Sorftime, the sales volume of the US TOP100 products grew 182% in June), and the non-US region expanded in an orderly manner (the UK/Germany race increased 156%/197% year on year in June). Furthermore, the company's product prices are stable. As the volume expands, the scale effect continues to show. It is expected that the increase in net interest rates will drive the continued release of performance.
The trend of thermos cup trend continues to be interpreted, and the company's global production capacity layout & manufacturing advantage has increased Stanley's share through strong marketing, joint branding, etc. In the future, Stanley has sufficient room to grow in both non-thermos cup categories and non-US regional expansion. As a core supplier, Jiayi will fully benefit from this trend. In addition, the company's surface treatment and cost control advantages are outstanding. With the release of Vietnam's production capacity, the global supply chain advantage is expected to continue to increase.
Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings
Q2 The company exceeded expectations. We raised our annual performance forecast. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 2.71/3.4/4.15 billion yuan in 24-26, +53%/25%/22%, respectively, and achieve net profit of 0.71/0.88/1.06 billion yuan, respectively, +50%/24%/21% year over year, corresponding to PE 11/9/8, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Raw material risk, exchange rate risk, competition exacerbate the risk.