The company released the 2024 semi-annual results forecast
24H1 estimated net profit to mother 0.305 billion yuan - 0.325 billion yuan, YoY +87.1%-99.3%; net profit without return to mother 0.3 billion yuan - 0.32 billion yuan, +81.6%-93.8% YoY; 24Q2 estimated net profit to mother 0.198 billion yuan - 0.218 billion yuan, YoY +79.7%-97.9%; net profit without return to mother 0.191 billion yuan - 0.211 billion yuan, +67.8%-85.3% YoY.
The main reasons for the impressive growth in performance are: 1. The company's main product industry boom continues to rise, the terminal market continues to improve, and customer orders are growing steadily. At the same time, the company focuses on main business development, insists on being customer-centered, deepens cooperative relationships with core customers, and continuously improves service quality and response speed.
2. The large-scale effect of the company's production is remarkable. It actively promotes lean management, continuously improves operational efficiency, and further strengthens the company's comprehensive operating capabilities.
With the accelerated growth of major customers, there is no risk that shipping and exchange will be affected
The thermos mug boom continues in the US, and leading brand name Stanley continues to promote Quencher product line marketing through the emerging social media TikTok, gradually changing the thermos mug from a “functional” product to a “consumer” product. The segmentation of the scenario promotes the segmentation of products in terms of capacity, volume, and material, and continues to drive an increase in consumption frequency; in addition, we believe that Stanley's ability to shape popular models gives continuity to growth. In addition to the Quencher series, the Iceflow series continues to be released, which is expected to open up room for growth.
Faced with systemic risks such as rising shipping rates and exchange rates in Q2, the company's export revenue uses the FOB model. In addition, by closely monitoring the trend of the US dollar exchange rate, price adjustment mechanisms due to agreed exchange rates with customers, and measures such as forward foreign exchange settlement, etc., and the thermos cup circuit and the company's major customers are growing strongly. We expect effective coverage of cost fluctuations, with limited overall impact.
Global layout of production capacity, continuous improvement in order response capacity
The scale of the company's production capacity has been steadily released, and the “annual output of 10 million stainless steel vacuum cups” project has reached the scheduled state of use in 23. We expect the “Vietnam produces 13.5 million stainless steel vacuum cups per year” project to be released one after another. The global layout is conducive to further meeting customer needs, improving the company's service capacity and order response capacity, and laying the foundation for increasing share.
Adjust profit forecasts to maintain “buy” ratings
The boom in downstream thermos cups continues, and segmented scenarios drive diverse needs, and the company binds major customers to accelerate growth. According to the performance forecast, we raised our profit forecast. We expect the company's net profit to be 0.69/0.83/0.97 billion in 24-26 (the previous value was 0.61/0.74/0.9 billion, respectively), and the corresponding PE was 12/10/8X, respectively, to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of declining core customer share; overseas demand falling short of expectations; capacity expansion falling short of expectations; performance forecasts are only preliminary estimates. The specific data is subject to the company's official financial report.