2024H1 公司预计实现营收18.3-19.0 亿元，同比+36%-+41%，其中Q2 实现营收12.4-13.1 亿元，同比+33.0%-+40.1%，基本符合市场预期，收入实现快速增长，我们判断主要系在手订单充足，加速确认收入。新接订单方面，公司 2024 H1 新签合同 39.4 亿元，同比增长 9.7%，其中半导体行业新签合同同比+11.4%。考虑到23Q2 订单基数较大，新接订单依然实现稳步增长，我们判断主要系头部晶圆厂持续扩产以及气体材料、零部件等业务持续扩张。截至2024H1 末，公司在手合同82.亿元，同比+46%，其中半导体行业占比52%，在手订单充足支撑后续业绩快速增长。Incident Overview
The company released the 2024 mid-year report forecast.
The revenue side achieved rapid growth, and on-hand orders continued to reach new highs.
2024H1 is expected to achieve revenue of 1.83-1.9 billion yuan, +36%-+41% year-on-year. Of these, Q2 achieved revenue of 1.24-1.31 billion yuan, +33.0%-+40.1% year-on-year, which is basically in line with market expectations and achieved rapid revenue growth. We judge that it is mainly due to sufficient on-hand orders and accelerated revenue recognition. In terms of new orders, the company signed a new contract of 3.94 billion yuan in 2024 H1, an increase of 9.7% over the previous year. Among them, the semiconductor industry signed new contracts +11.4% year over year. Considering the large order base in 23Q2, new orders are still growing steadily. We judge that it is mainly due to the continuous expansion of production by leading fabs and the continuous expansion of the gas materials and components business. By the end of 2024H1, the company had contracts of 8.2 billion yuan, +46% over the same period last year, of which the semiconductor industry accounted for 52%, with sufficient orders in hand to support rapid growth in subsequent performance.
Changes in fair value affect profit-side performance, and net profit after deduction is growing rapidly.
The 2024H1 company expects to achieve net profit of 0.1-0.11 billion yuan, -27%-33%% year over year, and Q2 to achieve net profit of 0.075-0.085 billion yuan, 4.5.9%-38.6% year over year. The net profit pressure on the mother is mainly due to the year-on-year decline in the fair value of equity investment of Qingdao Juyuan Yinxin Equity Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership); 2024H1 net profit after deduction is 0.112-0.117 billion yuan, YoY +50.0% -+ 57.0%, 24Q2 net profit not returned to mother was 0.096-0.1 billion yuan, +42.4%-+49.9% year-on-year. Net profit after deducting non-return to mother achieved rapid growth, in line with expectations. Based on the central value, the net interest rate for 2024H1 after deduction was 6.14%, +0.60pct year on year, and the net interest rate for Q2 was 7.69%, +0.50pct year on year. The actual profit level increased steadily. We speculate that the main effect of scale gradually became apparent. The cost ratio declined during the period. Considering the significant month-on-month increase in revenue in the second half of the year, the profit level is expected to continue to rise in the future.
The new business layout was very effective, and OPEX businesses such as parts and materials began to expand.
1) Components: GAS BOX has been widely certified by leading domestic semiconductor equipment companies. Revenue was +104% year-on-year in 2023. We expect new orders to continue to increase in 2024. 2) Gas materials: The company is one of the few domestic enterprises that can stably mass-produce electronic grade arsenic and phosphane. The fund-raising project focuses on electronic gases, and focuses on increasing electronic bulk gas to expand product and regional coverage. In 2023, it achieved 0.42 billion yuan, +73% year-on-year, achieving rapid growth; the precursor is the core raw material for semiconductor thin film deposition. The precursor manufacturing base built by the company at the Tongling electronic materials production base will cover more than 20 kinds of precursor products, involving silicon-based, metal-based, high-K and low-K products This category is expected to become another important growth point for OPEX business.
Investment advice
Taking into account the effects of changes in fair value, we maintained our 2024-2026 revenue forecasts of $53.96, 71.46, and 9.043 billion yuan, respectively, and adjusted 2024-2026 net profit of 5.52, 7.94, and 1,092 billion yuan (original values of 5.93, 8.48, and 1,159 million yuan), respectively, +38%, and the EPS for 2024-2026 was adjusted to 1.92, 2.76, and 2.76, respectively 3.80 yuan (original value 2.07, 2.95, and 4.04 yuan), the 2024/7/24 stock price was 29.78 yuan, corresponding to PE 16, 11, and 8 times, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
Downstream capital expenditure declined, market competition intensified, and new business expenses fell short of expectations.
