Got the news from the Intelligence Financial APP, that Shouchuang Securities released a research report that the domestic industrial metal demand has entered the off-season, and the expectation of the US economic recession is gradually increasing, the industrial metal prices may remain weak, and attention should be paid to the changes in downstream demand during the off-season. In addition, as the expectation of a rate cut gradually ferments and the US dollar credit system weakens, the gold price may maintain a high and volatile trend in the short term.

The price of industrial metals continued to weaken, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand during the off-season.

1) Copper: SHFE copper fell by -2.8% this week, closing at 76,740 yuan/tonne; LME copper fell by -5.94%, closing at 9,290 US dollars/tonne. The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 19,835 tons to 0.552 million tons, of which LME copper inventories increased by 25,200 tons to 0.2314 million tons, SHFE copper inventories decreased by 6,926 tons to 0.3092 million tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased by 1,561 tons to 0.0114 million tons. According to Bai Chuan Ying Fu, this week's imported copper mine TC average price rose slightly to 5 US dollars/tonne, the CSPT third-quarter processing fee guidance price was set at 30 US dollars/tonne, and the spot TC continues to maintain an upward trend.

2) Aluminum: SHFE aluminum fell by -1.97% this week, closing at 19,615 yuan/tonne; LME aluminum fell by -5.6%, closing at 2,350 US dollars/tonne. The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 1,328 tons to 1.2729 million tons, of which LME aluminum inventories decreased by 16,650 tons to 0.9601 million tons, SHFE aluminum inventories increased by 3,622 tons to 0.2658 million tons, and COMEX aluminum inventories increased by 11,700 tons to 0.047 million tons. According to Bai Chuan Ying Fu, this week, the domestic social inventory increased by 0.0079 million tons to 0.8099 million tons. Yunnan has continued to resume production, and the output of aluminum rods and aluminum plates of enterprises has increased compared with last week, and the overall export of aluminum materials has improved. With the domestic industrial metal demand entering the off-season, and the gradually increasing expectation of the US economic recession, the industrial metal prices may remain weak.

The price of lithium carbonate continues to fall, waiting for the bottom to appear.

The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by -3.68% this week, with a national average price of 0.0864 million yuan/tonne, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide fell by -1.14%, with a national average price of 0.0868 million yuan/tonne. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 560 tons to 27,610 tons, and lithium hydroxide inventory increased by 53 tons to 16,250 tons. According to Bai Chuan Ying Fu, the supply of lithium carbonate decreased slightly this week, but it is still at a high level, and the imported lithium mine and lithium salt are relatively sufficient. Overall, the lithium carbonate market is still in short supply, and the demand side has weak support for the price of lithium carbonate.

The price of magnesium has slightly dropped, and there is no profit left in the smelting end.

According to Bai Chuan Ying Fu, the price of metallic magnesium in the market has slightly decreased this week. As of July 18, 2024, the average price of 99.90% magnesium ingots is 17,749 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of -0.28%; the weekly average price in Shaanxi is 17,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of -0.73%. At present, the profit of magnesium smelting end is meager, and the space for magnesium price to decline is limited.

Expectations of a rate cut are gradually heating up, and gold prices have fallen after hitting a historical high.

Affected by factors such as recent US economic data falling short of expectations and repeated expectations for the US election, the spot gold price in London fell by -0.14% this week, closing at 2,403.5 US dollars/ounce, hitting a record high in the middle of the week; the US dollar index rose by 0.26%, closing at 104.38; COMEX gold fell by -0.55%, closing at 2,402.8 US dollars/ounce; COMEX silver fell by -5.22%, closing at 29.41 US dollars/ounce. As the expectation of a rate cut gradually ferments and the US dollar credit system weakens, the gold price may maintain a high and volatile trend in the short term.

Risk Warning: Macroeconomic demand falls short of expectations, and the Fed's rate cut is delayed.