On July 25th, Caixin reporter Tang Zhixiao reported that mobile phone manufacturers had recently released several new models of folding screen phones, including Xiaomi's first folding screen phone.

During the launch event, Lei Jun addressed criticisms that small folding screens were just "useless decorations." He hoped that Xiaomi's new product would change that impression. "Xiaomi's technology is fully capable of satisfying users' needs. I hope everyone will call it a 'beautiful little cutie' after using it."

According to Caixin reporters who visited physical stores, although Xiaomi's small folding screen MIX Flip is marketed towards female users, the majority of people interested in buying the product were male. In addition, salespeople stated that large folding screens were more popular.

Currently, most major mobile phone manufacturers have released both types of folding screens, and there are reports that Apple, who had been observing the market, will finally release its own folding screen phone in 2026. Some industry insiders believe that since the cost of folding screen components have decreased and the necessary technology has matured, it is a reasonable time for Apple to release such a product.

Is the small folding screen phone not selling as well as its larger counterpart? Sales are incrementally targeting female consumers.

"Is anyone still using the iPhone Mini? Small-screen enthusiasts, let's chat in the comments!" Lei Jun asked netizens on Weibo before the Xiaomi launch event.

Soon after, Xiaomi's first small folding screen phone, the MIX Flip, was unveiled at the event. The answer was unveiled: the external screen size of the product is 3.5 inches, which is the same as the classic iPhone 4 series. Lei Jun stated that Xiaomi had adapted input methods and multiple applications for this external screen, even adding a microphone to facilitate use of the phone while it is folded.

At first, small folding screens were just a way to save space, but users eventually found it inconvenient to flip the screen open every time they wanted to view a notification. This pushed manufacturers to add another screen on the back of the phone. Eventually, the external screen became larger and started to display personalities and perform simple tasks.

However, according to data from Counterpoint Research, sales of vertical folding screen phones in the Chinese market have decreased by 1% compared to a 91% year-on-year increase in foldable large folding screen phones. Recently, IDC released data for 2023 stating that sales of folding screen phones in China would reach approximately 7.007 million units, a year-on-year increase of 114.5%. Market analysts pointed out that the vertical folding screen product still lacks the necessary user scenarios and has a significant gap in the user experience when compared to traditional flat screen phones. However, the quality of the product is expected to improve in the future.

IDC data also shows that vertical folding product market acceptance has decreased. In 2022, the vertical folding screen product had a market share of 42.3% in the Chinese folding screen phone market, but by 2023, this figure had decreased by 10.4%. IDC analysts pointed out that vertical folding products still lack necessary user scenarios and have a significant gap in the user experience when compared to traditional flat-screen phones.

Analysts from Tianfeng Securities revealed in a report that OPPO and Vivo have both halted plans to release new up-and-down folding phone models in 2024 due to low profits.

In the face of dwindling demand, some manufacturers actually continue to add models, and even lower the prices of already expensive small folding screen phones. In the previous month, Honor introduced its Magic V Flip for 4,999 yuan, while Nubia's nubia Flip, released in April, became the first folding screen phone priced at over 3,000 yuan.

Ding Shaojiang, founder of 91 Tech and industry observer, believes that "Honor and Xiaomi entered the small folding screen market, firstly because they saw a need that was not being fulfilled, particularly for flagship configurations and experience. By starting with small folding screens, they may have an advantage in creating follow-up products."

Honor CEO Zhao Ming revealed that this pricing is "extremely difficult" for Honor, and Magic V Flip needs to sell at least 1 million units to achieve breakeven.

According to market research firm IDC, the market share of Xiaomi's folding screen phone was only 0.9% in the first quarter of 2024. Insiders in the mobile phone industry told reporters from Caixin that on one hand, Lei Jun mentioned in the launch event that Xiaomi's small folding screen project started research five years ago and was approved three years ago, so the launch was not rushed. On the other hand, the MIX Flip is facing a highly competitive market with low market share, even as it targets female users who are a potential source of growth for Xiaomi. "At the launch event, Lei Jun also emphasized that the proportion of women who purchased Xiaomi SU7 reached 28%, and it is expected that a proportion of female car owners will be 40-50%."

According to data from the market research firm IDC for the first quarter of 2024, Xiaomi's folding screen phone had a market share of only 0.9% in China's folding screen phone market.

Some insiders in the mobile phone industry mentioned that during the launch event, Lei Jun mentioned that Xiaomi started working on small folding screen research five years ago and approved it three years ago; this launch was not rushed. Xiaomi's market share for folding screens overall is low, and the MIX Flip is intended for female consumers, another area for Xiaomi to increase its market share. "At the launch event, Lei Jun also emphasized that the proportion of women who purchased Xiaomi SU7 reached 28%, and it is expected that the proportion of female car owners will be 40-50%."

Previously, data from Penguin Intelligence showed that 75% of Xiaomi phone users are male and only 25% are female.

Caixin reporters visited several Xiaomi stores in Shenzhen, where male customers were the majority interested in the new folding screen products, with some men being accompanied by their female partners. Sales staff told Caixin that "The first batch of large and small folding screens have sold around 30 units, and mostly were bought as gifts for significant others. Female consumers were mostly interested in mobile photography equipment."

The salesman added that there are also many male users who buy MIX Flip for personal use. "The previous small foldable screen configurations are not good, now that the hardware performance of MIX Flip has improved, many men will also prefer to buy the black version for personal use."

As the foldable screen industry chain matures, Apple has also arrived.

Although Xiaomi and Honor are both betting on the high-end small foldable screen segment, the large foldable screen is more popular and seems to be a general consensus in offline sales stores.

A salesperson at a Honor offline store told a Cailian Press reporter:"Our best-selling model in the store is the Magic V3s. The price difference between it and the Magic V Flip is really not that big, and it has much better configurations. If you buy it for your partner, the screen is bigger and it's more comfortable to browse Little Red Book, and it also balances business attributes."

Recently, the sixth generation foldable screen product of Samsung Galaxy Z series was launched, and Cailian Press reporter observed that there were also more consumers experiencing in-store of large foldable screen Galaxy Z Fold6 than small foldable screen.

A salesperson at a store told Cailian Press reporter: "Among our old customers, the proportion of users who repurchase Galaxy Z Fold is higher, and there are also many users who previously used Galaxy Z Flip and switched to it, the battery life of the large foldable screen is much stronger."

A mobile phone maintenance practitioner told Cailian Press reporter:"Take the example of OPPO's Find N3 and Find Flip3, the screen assembly purchase price difference between the large foldable screen and the small foldable screen is less than one thousand yuan, but the new machine prices of the two are almost double."

Cailian Press reporter learned that for a folding screen mobile phone product, the main cost is concentrated on the screen and hinge. If viewed purely from the part perspective, the profit margin of large foldable screens is obviously higher, and with the overall cost of components decreasing, the profit margin will be further improved.

Previously, Japan Economic News and Tokyo professional disassembly institution Fomalhaut Techno Solutions disassembled the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold4, and the estimated component cost was $670, which is less than 40% of the selling price. In comparison, the hardware cost of the iPhone 14 Pro Max released at the same time was 46% of the selling price.

Trend Force stated that the future development of the foldable smartphone market is closely related to the pace of cost optimization. Key components such as UTG and hinges can be mass-produced after standardization, thereby significantly reducing costs. In addition, compared with Korean suppliers, Chinese panel manufacturers have increased shipments of foldable panels, and it is expected that the cost of foldable phones will be further reduced.

With the growing maturity of the foldable screen supply chain, Apple's folding phone may also be unveiled. According to The Information's latest report, the foldable screen iPhone that Apple has secretly researched for years has finally ended the testing stage and is expected to be launched as early as 2026.

According to the information, Apple was granted a large number of patents related to foldable screens in early spring this year, including the core hinge part of the foldable screen and the spring layer design to reduce the pressure on the foldable screen. These patents show that Apple will focus on solving the pain points of folding creases and lightness.

In addition to the common small and large foldable screens, Apple has also applied for a "continuation patent" for foldable devices, which can be traced back to 2016.

It is reported that a continuation patent is based on a previously submitted patent application and is usually used to protect aspects or inventions that were not covered in the original application. If the original application is rejected or partially rejected, the applicant may submit a continuing application to protect those unaccepted inventions.

From the patent diagram showing the cross-sectional side view of the electronic device, it can be seen that the electronic device has two or more pivot points, allowing the device to fold in multiple directions. This patent may form the basis for the development of Apple's three-fold or multi-fold screen devices in the future.

Recently, there has also been news in the supply chain that Huawei will launch a three-fold screen device in the third or fourth quarter of this year. Yu Chengdong, a Huawei executive director, terminal BG director, and intelligent automotive solution BU director, also revealed during a live broadcast that Huawei's next-generation foldable screen has undergone 5 years of development and is about to debut.

Cailian Press reporter found from the official website of the National Intellectual Property Administration that Huawei did register two patents related to three-fold screens in March and July 2022. The patent description clearly mentions that the electronic device has three shells and two connecting parts.

According to the conclusion of Japan Economic News and Tokyo professional disassembly institution's disassembly of Huawei Mate Xs, the ratio of its cost to retail price is about 30%, which means that Huawei's profit margin on its foldable phones is higher than that of Samsung.

An industry insider estimates that from the perspective of technology reserves, brand positioning, and product pricing, Huawei and Samsung are the most likely manufacturers to challenge three-fold screen phones. "Foldable screen products recently released by domestic Android manufacturers are mainly priced at under ten thousand. Huawei's three-fold screen product is priced at least between 15000-20000 yuan."