Incident: Jiayi Co., Ltd. announced a pre-increase in results for the first half of 2024. After conversion, the company expects to achieve net profit of 0.198-0.218 billion yuan in 2024Q2, YoY +79.7%-97.9%; net profit without deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.191-0.211 billion yuan, YoY +67.8% -85.3%. We believe that the company's 24Q2 performance achieved relatively rapid year-on-year growth, mainly due to the continued excellent performance of popular orders from major customers and the fact that the RMB exchange rate remained low in 24Q2, which favoured exchange performance.
Major customer PMI order performance is still excellent: we took an average of 0.208 billion yuan as the net profit value, and at the same time pushed back on the assumption that the 2024Q4 historically high profit margin of 28.9% was used to obtain a revenue value of 0.72 billion yuan. Based on the average price of 45.2 yuan obtained by the company's revenue/sales volume in 2023, Jiayi sold 15.93 million thermos cups in 2024Q2, and is still full of orders. Considering that the company's largest customer accounts for a relatively high PMI business, we believe that the current performance of Jiayi shows that PMI orders are still strong.
The transformation of thermos mugs to multi-scene fashion has driven overseas industry demand to remain strong: According to export data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of thermos cups in the first half of the year were 1.25 billion US dollars, YoY +26.0%, June exports were 0.26 billion US dollars, YoY +36.9%. The export growth performance is excellent. We think it is mainly because the trend of thermos mug consumption in overseas markets is still penetrating from functionality to fashion and multiple scenarios, which will drive terminal demand to remain high.
Investment advice: Jiayi Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of thermos cups and pots. Product sales from major overseas customers continue to be booming, which is beneficial to Jiayi's order performance. Based on the intense sales situation exceeding our previous expectations, we have appropriately raised our profit forecast. Maintaining a buy-A investment rating, the company was given 15x PE in 2024, with a 6-month target price of 102.15 yuan.
Risk warning: raw material prices are rising, industry competition is intensifying, and there is a risk of exchange rate fluctuations.