FUTU Morning Post

U.S. stock market preview: Technology giants are shrouded in gloom! Tesla's pre-market crash exceeded 8%, Google fell more than 3%; Goldman Sachs: The possibility of the S&P 500 index approaching 6,000 points at the end of the year has increased.

Futu News · Jul 24 19:54

全球宏观

周三盘前，三大股指期货走低，纳指期货跌超1%

哈里斯发表首次竞选演讲，观点与特朗普针锋相对

美东时间周二，美国副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在威斯康星州的密尔沃基郊区发表了集会演讲，这是哈里斯发表的首次竞选集会演讲。在17分钟的演讲中，哈里斯积极地抨击特朗普的弱点，将其曾担任检察官的背景，与特朗普的重罪犯记录进行了对比；她表示，如果当选，她将采取行动，扩大堕胎渠道，让工人更容易加入工会，并解决枪支暴力问题——这与特朗普所声称的政策立场形成鲜明对比。

瑞银：资金或从现金及债券转投股市，标普500年底目标为5900点

瑞银发表报告指，随着宏观经济环境理想，投资者或会大幅将资金由现金及债券，改为投资到股票，或会推动标普500指数升至6500点。瑞银表示，仍然维持其核心投资策略，专注于优质增长股，并利用好AI相关机遇，对标普500指数今年底目标为5900点，最牛目标为6500点，但前提是通胀要完美地放缓，以及AI推动持续的高生产力增长。

大摩：标普500指数年底接近6000点的可能性增加

摩根士丹利投资总监Jim Caron发表今年下半年投资主题展望，指出截至5月标普500指数的预期收益较年初提升，反映出今年以来累积收益表现强于预期，相信除非经济突然减速，否则2025年收益预估至年底可能会更高。同时，截至5月底止标普500的前瞻市盈率为20.5倍，对比年初为19.7倍，两者均支持标普500指数年底接近6000点可能性，较接近5000点的可能性为高。

美银：上周客户减持70亿美元美股，创2020年11月以来最大规模

美银股票分析师团队每周报告显示，美银证券客户上周出售约70亿美元的股票，这是自2020年11月以来的最大流出规模。上周只有四个板块出现净买入，包括通讯服务、非必需消费品、医疗保健及能源板块，而金融及科技股录得显著资金流出。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前多数下跌，特斯拉跌超8%，谷歌跌超3%

特斯拉盘前大跌超8%，Q2利润不及预期

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$最新公布的业绩显示，第二季度调整后每股盈利为52美分，低于分析师平均预期的60美分；营收增加到255亿美元，超过了分析师预期的246亿美元；归属于普通股股东的每股摊薄收益为0.42美元，同比下降46%。

谷歌盘前跌超3%，二季度YouTube广告收入逊预期

$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$Q2营收盈利增超预期，季度云收入首超百亿美元，但广告放缓，押注AI投资的资本支出超过一季度，盘后震荡转跌。分析指出，谷歌二季度广告收入基本稳定，云计算收入尤为强劲且季度营业利润首次超过10亿美元，但YouTube广告收入在来自TikTok的竞争减弱后仍不及预期，押注AI投资的资本支出为131.86亿美元，超过一季度的120亿美元，令人担心积压利润率。

德州仪器盘前涨近2%，Q2营收下滑但超预期，Q3展望明确

$德州仪器 (TXN.US)$公司第二季度营收为38.22亿美元，同比下滑15.6%，优于市场预期的36.8亿美元。暗示需求持续萎靡的模拟芯片出现复苏迹象。Q2摊薄后的每股收益为1.22美元，超过分析师们普遍预期的1.16美元。该公司预计第三季度总营收将在39.4亿至42.6亿美元之间，分析师预期为41.4亿美元。

德意志银行盘前一度跌超8%，四年来首次录得亏损

$德意志银行 (DB.US)$Q2归属于股东的净亏损为1.43亿欧元，结束了连续15个季度的盈利，分析师预期为亏损1.45亿欧元。四年来首次录得亏损的原因是交易放缓，且该行计入了与德国邮政银行零售部门遗留问题相关的费用。期内净营收增长2%，达到76亿欧元；不包括德国邮政银行拨备的税前利润为17亿欧元，高于去年同期的14亿欧元。

LVMH上半年盈利跌14%逊预期，Q2亚洲市场内生性销售额大幅下降

法国奢侈品牌LV母公司$LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY.US)$公布，上半年净利润72.67亿欧元，同比跌14.3%，且低于市场预期的74.5亿欧元。上半年，整体营业收入同比跌1%至416.77亿欧元。期内，核心时装和皮革部门收入跌2%，至207.71亿欧元。在亚洲(不包括日本)，集团第二季内生性销售额同比跌14%，第一季下降6%。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普跌，理想跌超3%，网易逆市上涨近3%

网易盘前涨近3%，《永劫无间》明日公测上线

$网易 (NTES.US)$旗舰武侠大逃杀类游戏《永劫无间》7月25日公测上线，目前参与预约的玩家已突破4000万人。小摩曾发研报指，网易将在2024年7月上线三款备受期待的游戏：《七日世界》(7月10日全球发布)，《永劫无间手游》(7月25日)，《燕云十六声》PC版(7月26日)。这些新游戏的发布将推动2024年下半年游戏收入增速加速，并推动股价自当前水平上行。

京东：将在香港发行基于公共区块链并与港元1:1挂钩的稳定币

据21财经，$京东 (JD.US)$将在香港发行与港元1:1挂钩的加密货币稳定币。据京东科技集团旗下公司京东币链科技 (香港) 官网信息，京东稳定币是一种基于公链并与港元 (HKD) 1:1挂钩的稳定币，将在公共区块链上发行。此前7月18日，香港金融管理局公布稳定币发行人“沙盒”参与者名单，其中包括京东币链科技 (香港)（JINGDONG Coinlink）。

杰富瑞：百度的Robotaxi业务可能在竞争中脱颖而出，维持买入评级

杰富瑞最新研究报告指出，$百度 (BIDU.US)$的Robotaxi业务可能会在竞争中脱颖而出，因其具有广泛的地理覆盖范围、技术和资源。他们认为，未来几年，Robotaxi的潜在市场规模可能达到1万亿元人民币，而百度在11个城市占据领先地位，累计乘坐次数超过600万次。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

本周重点业绩日历

编辑/emily

Global macro

Before the opening bell on Wednesday, the three major equity index futures fell, with Nasdaq futures down more than 1%.

Harris delivers her first campaign speech with views opposite to Trump's.

On Tuesday Eastern Time, US Vice President Kamala Harris gave her first campaign speech at a rally in suburban Milwaukee, Wisconsin. In her 17-minute speech, Harris actively condemned Trump's weaknesses, comparing her background as a prosecutor with Trump's criminal record. She stated that if elected, she will take action to expand abortion channels, make it easier for workers to join the union, and solve the problem of gun violence, which is in stark contrast to Trump's policy positions.

UBS Group: Funds may shift from cash and bonds to the stock market, with a year-end target of 5900 points for the S&P 500.

According to a report released by UBS, as the macroeconomic environment improves, investors may significantly shift funds from cash and bonds to stocks, which may push the S&P 500 index up to 6500 points. UBS stated that it still maintains its core investment strategy, focuses on high-quality growth stocks, and seizes AI-related opportunities. The year-end target for the S&P 500 index is 5900 points, and the most bullish target is 6500 points, but the premise is that inflation should slow down perfectly, and AI should promote sustained high productivity growth.

Morgan Stanley: The possibility of the S&P 500 index approaching 6000 points at the end of the year has increased.

Jim Caron, the investment director of Morgan Stanley, issued an investment outlook for the second half of this year, stating that the expected return of the S&P 500 index as of May exceeded the beginning of the year, reflecting better-than-expected cumulative performance since the beginning of this year, and believes that the estimated return by the end of 2025 may be higher. Unless the economy suddenly slows down, The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index as of the end of May was 20.5 times, compared with 19.7 times at the beginning of the year. Both support the possibility that the S&P 500 index will approach 6000 points at the end of the year, rather than the possibility of approaching 5000 points.

Bank of America: Customers sold $7 billion of US stocks last week, the largest outflow since November 2020.

Bank of America's stock analyst team's weekly report shows that Bank of America Securities' customers sold about $7 billion of stocks last week, the largest outflow since November 2020. Only four sectors had net purchases last week, including communication services, non-essential consumer goods, medical care, and energy sectors. Financial and technology stocks recorded significant outflows of funds.

Hot news

Most growth tech stocks fell before the market, with Tesla down more than 8% and Google down more than 3%.

Tesla fell sharply before the market, down more than 8%, with Q2 profits lower than expected.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The latest disclosed results show that the adjusted earnings per share for Q2 were 52 cents, lower than the analyst's average expectation of 60 cents; revenue increased to $25.5 billion, exceeding the analyst's expectation of $24.6 billion; diluted earnings per share attributable to ordinary shareholders were $0.42, a year-on-year decrease of 46%.

Google fell more than 3% before the market, and the Q2 YouTube advertising revenue was lower than expected.

$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Q2 revenue and profits exceeded expectations. Quarterly cloud revenue exceeded 10 billion US dollars for the first time, but advertising slowed down. Capital expenditures invested in AI exceeded the first quarter, causing post-market volatility. Analysis pointed out that Google's Q2 advertising revenue was basically stable, and the revenue of cloud computing was especially strong. The quarterly operating profit exceeded $1 billion for the first time, but YouTube advertising revenue still fell short of expectations after the competition from TikTok weakened. The capital expenditure invested in AI was $13.186 billion, exceeding the first quarter's $12 billion, which raised concerns about the backlog of profit margins.

Texas Instruments rose nearly 2% before the market, Q2 revenue declined but exceeded expectations, and Q3 outlook is clear.

$Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$The company's second-quarter revenue was $3.822 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%, surpassing the market's expected $3.68 billion. This implies that there are signs of recovery in simulated chip amid continued demand sluggishness. The diluted earnings per share for Q2 were $1.22, higher than analysts' general expectation of $1.16. The company expects total revenue in the third quarter to be between 3.94 billion and 4.26 billion US dollars, while analysts expect it to be 4.14 billion US dollars.

Deutsche Bank fell more than 8% before the market, recording a loss for the first time in four years.

$Deutsche Bank (DB.US)$Q2 net loss attributable to shareholders was 0.143 billion euros, ending 15 consecutive quarters of profit, and analysts expected a loss of 0.145 billion euros. The reason for the first loss in four years is the slowing down of trades, and the bank has included costs related to the legacy issues of the retail department of Deutsche Postbank. Net revenue increased by 2% during the period, reaching 7.6 billion euros; before taxes and reserves of Deutsche Postbank, the profit was 1.7 billion euros, higher than the 1.4 billion euros in the same period last year.

LVMH's first-half profit dropped 14%, lower than expected, and Q2's endogenous sales in the Asian market fell sharply.

French luxury brand LV's parent company announced that its net profit for the first half of the year was 7.267 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%, and lower than the market's expected 7.45 billion euros. In the first half of the year, overall revenue fell by 1% to 41.677 billion euros. During the period, the core fashion and leather department's revenue fell by 2% to 20.771 billion euros. In Asia (excluding Japan), sales in the second quarter fell by 14% year-on-year and fell by 6% in the first quarter.$LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY.US)$Ideal falls more than 3% amid general decline in China concept stocks, while Netease rises nearly 3%.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

Netease rises nearly 3% pre-market as 'Undying' will start public testing tomorrow.

The flagship martial arts and battle royale game 'Undying' will start public testing on July 25th, and the number of players who have participated in the reservation has exceeded 40 million. Morgan Stanley has issued a research report stating that Netease will launch three highly anticipated games in July 2024: 'Seven Days World' (released globally on July 10th), 'Undying' mobile game (July 25th), and 'Yanyun Shiliu Sheng' PC version (July 26th). The release of these new games will accelerate the growth rate of game revenue in the second half of 2024 and push the stock price upward from its current level.

$NetEase (NTES.US)$According to 21st Century Business Herald, JD.com is going to issue a stablecoin pegged to HKD at a 1:1 ratio in Hong Kong. According to the official website of JD Coinlink Technology (Hong Kong), a subsidiary of JD.com, JD Coin is a stablecoin based on the public blockchain and pegged to HKD at a 1:1 ratio, and will be issued on a public blockchain. On July 18, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority released a list of sandbox participants in stablecoin issuance, including JD Coinlink.

JD.com: Will issue a stablecoin based on public blockchain in Hong Kong that is pegged to the Hong Kong dollar 1:1.

According to 21 Finance,$JD.com (JD.US)$Jefferies Financial thinks Baidu's Robotaxi business may stand out in the competition and maintains a buy rating.

Jefferies' latest research report states that Baidu's Robotaxi business may stand out in the competition due to its wide geographical coverage, technology, and resources. They believe that the potential market size of Robotaxi may reach RMB 1 trillion in the next few years, and Baidu has a leading position in 11 cities with a total ride of over 6 million times.

Jefferies Financial's latest research report pointed out,$Baidu (BIDU.US)$In 2024, the company's overall sales volume of 18,000 kiloliters, +28.10% year-on-year, significant growth. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

This week's key performance calendar

Editor/Emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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