Zhongjin: Hang Seng Index to conduct mid-term review next month, Innovent Bio, Xiaopeng and others may be added to the list of eligible stocks for HK stock connect program. A total of 25 stocks are likely to be included.

AASTOCKS · Jul 24 12:52

中金發表報告表示，8月16日收市後，恒生指數公司將公布恒生系列指數半年度審議結果，涉及恒生、國企、恒生科技等港股主要旗艦指數，以及與港股通投資範圍密切相關的恒生綜指。潛在調整候選方面，基於恆指調整方法，與通過此前多次實際調整結果對非量化調整標準的理解和驗證，該行估算信達生物(01801.HK)、小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)、京東物流(02618.HK)、中國旺旺(00151.HK)、名創優品(09896.HK)與快手-W(01024.HK)等排在恒生指數順位前列，有可能成為納入的潛在候選者。

該行指，歷史經驗表明實際結果可能與這一基於順位的篩選存在較大出入，例如快手-W與京東物流等在過去幾次的預測中都排在前列，但最終都未能被納入，主要可能是一些作為指數諮詢委員決策依據的因素，如行業和上市地代表性等並無詳細說明或量化依據，也不排除有其他非量化因素的考量影響最終決策。

港股通與恒生綜指調整方面，中金預計25間公司有望納入港股通，33間公司或被移出，由於恒生綜合指數是港股通投資的樣本空間，其變化也將直接影響港股通可投資範圍，因此值得關注，估算此次或共有25隻股票符合納入港股通的標準，包括邁富時(02556.HK)、QUANTUMPH-P(02228.HK)、茶百道(02555.HK)、趣致集團(00917.HK)、汽車街(02443.HK)、天立國際(01773.HK)、陽光保險(06963.HK)、知行汽車(01274.HK)、達勢股份(01405.HK)、Mongol Mining(00975.HK)、順豐同城(09699.HK)、美中嘉和(02453.HK)、中慶股份(01855.HK)、達力普(01921.HK)、昊天國際建投(01341.HK)、老鋪黃金(06181.HK)、升能集團(02459.HK)、中石化煉化工程(02386.HK)、德林控股(01709.HK)、德康農牧(02419.HK)、宜搜科技(02550.HK)、中創新航(03931.HK)、江南布衣(03306.HK)、東陽光長江藥業(01558.HK)及阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)。

值得指出的是，根據阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)於今年5月14日發布財報顯示，公司預計將於今年8月底完成從二次上市到雙重主要上市的轉換。考慮到公司早已滿足納入港股通的其他要求，例如上市滿6個月及20個交易日(2019年11月26日上市)；作為同股不同權公司在考察日前183天日均市值不低於200億港元、成交額不低於60億港元。因此若公司於今年8月底成功完成雙重主要上市轉換，則有望趕上9月5日的港股通考察日，並在本輪9月9日調整附近納入。不過，中金提示如果未能實現雙重主要上市的轉換而無法納入的風險。

On August 16th after market close, Hang Seng Index Company will announce the semi-annual review results of the Hang Seng series of indices, involving major flagship indices of Hong Kong stocks such as the Hang Seng, state-owned enterprises, Hang Seng technology, as well as the Hang Seng Composite Index that is closely related to the scope of investment in Hong Kong stocks. In terms of potential adjustment candidates, based on the adjustment method of the Hang Seng Index and the understanding and verification of non-quantitative adjustment standards through previous actual adjustment results, the bank estimates that Innovent Bio (01801.HK), XPeng-W (09868.HK), JD Logistics (02618.HK), Want Want China (00151.HK), Miniso (09896.HK) and Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) are ranked at the forefront of the Hang Seng Index and may become potential candidates for inclusion.

The bank pointed out that historical experience has shown that the actual results may differ greatly from the position-based screening. For example, Kuaishou-W and JD Logistics have ranked high in several previous predictions but have not been included. Mainly, it may have been due to some factors that serve as the basis for decision-making by the index advisory committees, such as industry and listing venue representativeness, for which there is no detailed explanation or quantitative basis, and there may also be non-quantitative factors that affect the final decision.

Regarding the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks through Hong Kong Connect and the Hang Seng Composite Index, the bank predicts that 25 companies are expected to be included in Hong Kong Connect and 33 companies may be removed. Since the Hang Seng Composite Index is the sample space for Hong Kong stock investment, its changes will directly affect the scope of investment in Hong Kong Connect, so it is worth paying attention to. The bank estimates that there may be 25 stocks that meet the inclusion criteria for Hong Kong Connect, including Mai Fu Holdings (02556.HK), QUANTUMPH-P (02228.HK), Cha Ba Dao (02555.HK), Koolearn Technology (00917.HK), Autohome Road (02443.HK), Teli Bio (01773.HK), Sunshine Insurance (06963.HK), ZH Car Inc (01274.HK), Dah Sing Group (01405.HK), Mongol Mining (00975.HK), SF Real Estate (09699.HK), Meidu Energy (02453.HK), Zonqing Ltd (01855.HK), Dali Foods Group (01921.HK), Hao Tian Intl (01341.HK), Lao Feng Xiang (06181.HK), Shengneng Group (02459.HK), Sinopec SEG (02386.HK), DL Holdings GP (01709.HK), Dekang Agriculture (02419.HK), EasySearch Tech (02550.HK), CEC New Horizon (03931.HK), jnby (03306.HK), HEC CJ Pharm (01558.HK) and Alibaba-SW (09988.HK).

It is worth noting that according to Alibaba-SW's (09988.HK) financial report released on May 14th this year, the company expects to complete the conversion from secondary listing to dual primary listing at the end of August this year. Considering that the company has already met other requirements for inclusion in Hong Kong Connect, such as being listed for six months and having 20 trading days (listed on November 26th, 2019); as a weighted voting right company, the average daily market value prior to the examination day during the 183-day examination period is not less than HKD 20 billion, and the turnover is not less than HKD 6 billion. Therefore, if the company successfully completes the dual primary listing conversion by the end of August this year, it is expected to catch up with the Hong Kong Connect examination day on September 5th and be included in the adjustment near September 9th of this round. However, the bank warns of the risk of not being included if the dual primary listing conversion cannot be achieved.

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《大行》中金：恒指下月中期檢討 料信達生物、小鵬等或「染藍」 25隻股有望納入港股通

Zhongjin: Hang Seng Index to conduct mid-term review next month, Innovent Bio, Xiaopeng and others may be added to the list of eligible stocks for HK stock connect program. A total of 25 stocks are likely to be included.

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《大行》中金：恒指下月中期檢討料信達生物、小鵬等或「染藍」 25隻股有望納入港股通