Three points to watch in the afternoon session - steady but weighed down by strong yen.

Fisco Japan · Jul 24 11:29

24日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は6日続落、底堅いが円高推移が重しに

・ドル・円は反落、上値の重さを嫌気

・値下り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位は富士フイルムHD＜4901＞

■日経平均は6日続落、底堅いが円高推移が重しに

日経平均は6日続落。前日比85.55円安（－0.22％）の39508.84円（出来高概算7億8000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

23日の米国株式市場は反落。ダウ平均は57.35ドル安（－0.14％）の40358.09ドル、ナスダックは10.22ポイント安（－0.06％）の17997.35、S&P500は8.67ポイント安（－0.16％）の5555.74で取引を終了した。企業の決算発表を控え様子見気配が強まり、まちまちで寄り付いた。さらに、今週発表が予定されている重要インフレや経済指標待ちの調整も続き、終日売り買いが交錯する中、好決算や利下げ期待を受けた根強い買いが支え底堅く推移したが、終盤にかけ相場は下落に転じ終了。

米国株安や為替の円高推移を受けて、東京市場も売り優勢で取引を開始した。日経平均は前日比300円超下げ幅を拡大した後は切り返すなど底堅い動きは感じられたが、前日比マイナス圏で前引けを迎えた。引き続き月末の日米中銀会合を前に積極的な売買は手控えられ、前場のプライム市場の売買代金は2兆円を割り込んだ。

日経平均採用銘柄では、低調な第1四半期決算が嫌気されて三菱自動車＜7211＞が大幅安となったほか、長期金利の指標となる10年物国債利回りが1.07％まで上昇したことから住友不動産＜8830＞、東急不動産HD＜3289＞など不動産株の一角が弱い。このほか、いすゞ＜7202＞、住友化学＜4005＞、アマダ＜6113＞、日立建機＜6305＞、シャープ＜6753＞がさえない。

一方、第1四半期営業利益が市場予想を上振れたことからニデック＜6594＞が買われたほか、持ち合い株の解消を通じた資本効率の改善期待からトヨタ自＜7203＞も上昇。このほか、中外製薬＜4519＞、スクリーンHD＜7735＞、HOYA＜7741＞、あおぞら銀行＜8304＞、村田製作所＜6981＞、三菱電機＜6503＞が買われた。

業種別では、電気・ガス業、海運業、空運業、陸運業、不動産業などが下落した一方、精密機器、医薬品、輸送用機器、電気機器の4セクターのみ上昇した。

為替は1ドル155円20銭台、1ユーロ168円30銭台と、前日比では主要通貨に対して円は全面高となっていることから、後場の日経平均は前日終値水準をやや下回った水準でのもみ合いとなりそうだ。

日米中銀会合が月末に迫っていることや、11月の米大統領選に対する不透明感の高まりなどを受けて、投機筋が引き続き円売りポジションを解消しているようだ。米商品先物取引委員会（CFTC）が公表した7月16日時点の円売りポジションは、差し引き15万1072枚と、過去2番目（07年6月、ネットで18万8077枚）の円売りポジション（18万4223枚）を記録した7月2日時点よりも3.3万枚減少した。今年1月の円売りポジションが5万枚台だったことから、ポジション調整はまだ続く可能性もある。決算発表のタイミングで円高が進むことで、円安を材料とした決算への期待感は低下するだろう。日経平均の重しとなりそうな状況だ。

■ドル・円は反落、上値の重さを嫌気

24日午前の東京市場でドル・円は反落し、155円17銭まで値を下げた。仲値にかけて国内勢の買いが強まり、一時155円99銭まで上値を伸ばした。ただ、156円の回復に失敗し、上値の重さを嫌気した売りが優勢に。日本株安でやや円買いも膨らんだ。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は155円17銭から155円99銭、ユーロ・円は168円35銭から169円19銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.0842ドルから1.0854ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・Ｃｈｏｒｄｉａ　Ｔｈｅｒａｐｅｕｔｉｃｓ＜190A＞、ＰＲＩＳＭ　ＢｉｏＬａｂ＜206A＞など、4銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値下り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位は富士フイルムHD＜4901＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・米・7月フィラデルフィア連銀非製造業活動：－19.1（6月2.9）

・米・6月中古住宅販売件数：389万戸（予想：399戸、5月：411万戸）

・米・7月リッチモンド連銀製造業指数：-17（予想：-7、6月：-10）

・ユーロ圏・7月消費者信頼感指数速報値：－13.0（予想：-13.5、6月：-14.0）

【要人発言】

・シューマー民主党上院院内総務、ジェフリー下院院内総務

「ハリス副大統領を、党内の大統領候補として支持」

・バイデン米大統領（関係筋）

「米時間24日夜の演説で、再選断念の決断を国民に説明へ」

＜国内＞

・特になし

＜海外＞

・16:30　独・7月製造業PMI速報値（予想：44.0、6月：43.5）

・16:30　独・7月サービス業PMI速報値（予想：53.3、6月：53.1）

In the afternoon trading on the 24th, three points should be noted.

- The Nikkei average fell for the 6th consecutive day, but remains stable, due to the strong yen. - The dollar-yen exchange rate fell as investors are worried about the weight of the upside. - First Retail <9983> was the biggest contributor to the decline in stock prices, followed by Fujifilm HD <4901>. - The Nikkei average fell for the 6th consecutive day, but remains stable, due to the strong yen. - The exchange rate is around 155.20 yen to the dollar and 168.30 yen to the euro. Due to the yen's strength against major currencies compared to the previous day, the Nikkei average is likely to be in a narrow range slightly below the previous day's closing level. - Due to the proximity of the tripartite central bank meeting and the increasing uncertainty about the U.S. presidential election in November, speculators seem to be continuing to unwind their short yen positions. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) data as of July 16, the net yen selling position was 1,072 sheets or a net selling position of 150,000 sheets, which was the second largest (807,700 sheets net selling position online in June 2007) since July 2, when the net selling position of 184,223 sheets was recorded. Given that the net selling position was in the 50,000 sheet range in January of this year, there is still likely to be some position adjustments. If the strong yen trend continues at the time of earnings announcements, the expectation of earnings based on a weaker yen will likely decline. This could weigh down on the Nikkei average.

- The weather is good today - The weather is good today.

- First Retail <9983> was the biggest contributor to the decline in stock prices, followed by Fujifilm HD <4901>.

- The Nikkei Average continued to fall for 6 days, and although it is steady, the appreciation of the yen is a burden.

The Nikkei average fell for the 6th consecutive day. As of the morning session, it ended the morning trading session at 39,508.84 yen (approx. 0.7 billion 80 million shares traded) down 85.55 yen (-0.22%) from the previous day.

The US stock market fell on the 23rd. The Dow Jones average closed down 57.35 points (-0.14%) at 40,358.09, the Nasdaq down 10.22 points (-0.06%) at 17,997.35, and the S&P 500 down 8.67 points (-0.16%) at 5,555.74. With earnings reports from companies impending and cautious wait-and-see sentiment, the market was mixed and opened flat. In addition, adjustments continued as important inflation and economic indicators to be announced this week were awaited, and throughout the day trades were mixed with bullish buying supported by good earnings and expected interest rate cuts, but the market turned downward towards the end and closed lower.

The Tokyo market also opened with a predominance of selling due to the fall in US stocks and the strengthening of the yen. The Nikkei average showed a stable movement, rebounding after expanding its fall of more than 300 yen from the previous day's close, but ended the morning below the previous day's level. Persistent buying supporting good earnings and expected interest rate cuts helped maintain a solid base, but aggressive buying and selling before the end of the month was withheld, and the prime market traded for less than 2 trillion yen.

Among the Nikkei average adopted stocks, Mitsubishi Motors <7211> fell sharply due to weak first-quarter earnings, and Sumitomo Realty <8830>, Tokyu Real Estate HD <3289> and other real estate stocks were weak as the 10-year government bond yield, an indicator of long-term interest rates, rose to 1.07%. Isuzu <7202>, Sumitomo Chemical <4005>, Amada <6113>, Hitachi Construction Machinery <6305>, and Sharp <6753> were sluggish.

Nidec <6594> rose due to first quarter operating profit exceeding market expectations, and Toyota <7203> also rose due to improved capital efficiency expectations through the elimination of holding shares. In addition, Chugai Pharmaceutical <4519>, Screen HD <7735>, HOYA <7741>, Aozora Bank <8304>, Murata Manufacturing <6981>, and Mitsubishi Electric <6503> were bought.

In terms of industry sectors, only four sectors saw an increase: precision instruments, pharmaceuticals, transportation equipment, and electric appliances. Electric and gas, marine transportation, air transport, land transportation, and real estate declined.

- The exchange rate is around 155.20 yen to the dollar and 168.30 yen to the euro. Due to the yen's strength against major currencies compared to the previous day, the Nikkei average is likely to be in a narrow range slightly below the previous day's closing level.

- Due to the proximity of the tripartite central bank meeting and the increasing uncertainty about the U.S. presidential election in November, speculators seem to be continuing to unwind their short yen positions. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) data as of July 16, the net yen selling position was 1,072 sheets or a net selling position of 150,000 sheets, which was the second largest (807,700 sheets net selling position online in June 2007) since July 2, when the net selling position of 184,223 sheets was recorded. Given that the net selling position was in the 50,000 sheet range in January of this year, there is still likely to be some position adjustments. If the strong yen trend continues at the time of earnings announcements, the expectation of earnings based on a weaker yen will likely decline. This could weigh down on the Nikkei average.

- The dollar-yen exchange rate fell as investors are worried about the weight of the upside. - The dollar-yen exchange rate fell as investors are worried about the weight of the upside.

On the morning of the 24th, the dollar-yen exchange rate fell to 155.17 yen. Domestic buyers pushed up the exchange rate to 155.99 yen during the latter half of the session. However, the exchange rate failed to recover to 156 yen, and sellers who were dissatisfied with the weight of the upside took the lead. Slightly more yen buying was seen due to the decline in Japanese stocks.

The trading ranges to this point are 155.17 to 155.99 yen for dollar-yen, 168.35 to 169.19 yen for euro-yen, and 1.0842 to 1.0854 dollars for euro-dollar.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

- Chordia Therapeutics <190A>, PRISM BioLab <206A>, and two other stocks rose by their daily limit.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

- First Retail <9983> was the biggest contributor to the decline in stock prices, followed by Fujifilm HD <4901>.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

- U.S. July non-manufacturing activity index by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve: -19.1 (compared to 2.9 in June)

- U.S. existing home sales in June amounted to 3.89 million units (expected 3.99 million, May 4.11 million).

- U.S. Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index for July: -17 (expected -7, June: -10)

- Eurozone's preliminary consumer confidence index for July: -13.0 (expected -13.5, June: -14.0)

[Important Person's Remarks]

- Shoemaker Democratic Party's Majority Leader in the Upper House, and Jeffrey Majority Leader in the Lower House

"Democratic Senator Schumer, Chief of Staff of the Senate, supports Vice President Harris as a presidential candidate within the party."

"U.S. President Biden (sources) will explain the decision to abandon re-election to the public in a speech on the night of the 24th."

- German manufacturing PMI preliminary value for July at 16:30 (expected 44.0, June 43.5)

Not applicable.

- 16:30 German Manufacturing PMI preliminary figure for July (financial estimates: 44.0, June: 43.5)

- At 16:30, Germany's preliminary Services PMI for July (financial estimates: 53.3, June: 53.1).

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～底堅いが円高推移が重しに

Three points to watch in the afternoon session - steady but weighed down by strong yen.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement