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Futu Morning Post | Traders are betting again on concept stocks in the US election; Tesla surged more than 5% before the results

Futu News · Jul 24 08:18

热点要闻

美国总统拜登将就退选发表全国讲话

据外媒报道，美国总统拜登将于当地时间7月24日晚将就其退出2024年总统竞选的决定发表全国讲话。报道称，拜登将于当地时间24日晚上8时左右发表全国讲话。当记者向他问询演讲内容时，他并未透露，并称“为什么不等着听我说些什么呢”。

此前报道，7月23日，拜登的医生在一份声明中表示，总统的新冠检测结果呈阴性。17日，拜登在拉斯维加斯参加完竞选活动后新冠病毒检测呈阳性，随后中断后续的竞选活动，乘机前往特拉华的家中隔离。

哈里斯获党内领袖官宣成为总统候选人，“哈里斯交易”受市场关注

当地时间7月23日，美国参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默和众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯召开新闻发布会，宣布支持副总统哈里斯成为美国民主党总统候选人。有分析认为，哈里斯主张为中低收入群体减税、给富人加税，有利于消费板块；希望促进美国出口，大型跨国公司将受益；支持清洁能源发展，电动汽车和光伏股等将受益。

最新民调：哈里斯支持率45% 比特朗普仅落后两个百分点

美国民主党临阵换将效果显著，最新一项全国性民调显示，哈里斯的支持率45%，比特朗普的47%仅落后两个百分点。

市场坚信美联储年内降息，两年期美债标售需求井喷，海外买盘创纪录

当地时间周二，美国财政部拍卖690亿美元两年期国债，拍卖结果强劲，市场需求大，海外买盘创纪录。本次2年期美债拍卖的得标利率为4.434%，大幅低于6月25日的4.706%，二者相差27.2个基点。本次的2年期美债得标利率也创下今年1月以来的最低水平。本次得标利率比预发行利率4.457%低2.3个基点，这是二者有记录以来的第二大差距，差距仅小于2023年3月，凸显市场需求强劲。

美国银行客户上周抛售70亿美元美国股票，创2020年11月以来最大

以Jill Carey Hall领衔的美国银行(BofA)策略师团队周二在一份研究报告中表示，上周，美国银行的客户净卖出了70亿美元的美国股票，这是自2020年11月以来最大的一次卖出。其中，机构客户连续第二周领跌，对冲基金三周来首次出现资金流出。从行业层面来看，金融行业连续第二周出现最大规模的资金流出，尽管整个行业的收益都好于预期。科技股出现大规模资金外流，这是自5月份以来首次出现资金外流。通信服务继续出现资金流入，上周在所有行业中规模最大。

美国6月成屋销售下滑：房价中位数创历史新高

当地时间周二，全美房地产经纪人协会最新数据显示，美国6约房屋销售经季节性因素调整后折合成年率为389万套，下降5.4%，为去年12月以来的最低水平，逊于市场预期。成屋价格中值较上年同期飙升4.1%，至426900美元的历史高点，这是该价格连续第二个月创出历史新高，四大地区的房价都有所上涨。

以太坊现货ETF受追捧，首秀成交量超5亿美元

当地时间7约23日周二，以太坊现货ETF在美国公开上市交易。亮相首日，投资者表现踊跃，媒体估算，首批九只以太坊ETF在开盘后几小时的合计成交量就超过5亿美元。截至美东时间周二下午12点30分，贝莱德发行的$iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$成交量已达1.19亿美元，在美国ETF首日成交排行榜中名列第38位，相当于半日成交量已超过1亿美元；Grayscale旗下由以太坊信托转为ETF的$Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE.US)$成交量约2.2亿美元。

美股复盘

美股三大指数均小幅收跌，小盘股指仍涨1%，特斯拉盘后跌超8%

周三（7月23日），标普500指数跌0.16%，道指跌0.14%，纳指跌0.06%。

大型科技股涨跌不一，亚马逊涨超2%，Meta、谷歌、苹果、微软小幅上涨；特斯拉跌超2%，英特尔跌超1%，英伟达、奈飞小幅下跌。联合包裹跌约12%，单日跌幅创纪录。Spotify大涨近12%，该公司二季度净利润同比扭亏为盈，三季度利润指引远超预期。

热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.84%。小鹏汽车、爱奇艺跌超6%，蔚来跌超4%，理想汽车、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，唯品会、京东、微博、百度跌超2%，拼多多、阿里巴巴、网易小幅下跌。

特斯拉Q2利润两位数剧减远逊预期，Robotaxi推迟问世，盘后跌超8%

二季度$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$总营收不降反增2%，能源业务营收翻倍增长，齐创新高，汽车业务营收下降7%，EPS和净利润降超40%，“卖碳”收入环比翻倍至新纪录8.9亿美元。特斯拉仍预计Cybertruck今年底盈利，预计三季度汽车产量环比增长转正，平价车等新车仍有望明年上半年投产；称重点仍是全公司削减成本，加速开发AI产品和服务，Robotaxi部署时机取决于技术和监管。马斯克确认Robotaxi推迟两月至10月问世的媒体消息，称平价车明年上半年交付。

谷歌母公司Q2营收盈利双超预期，季度云收入首超百亿美元，但广告放缓，盘后转跌

7月23日周二美股盘后，$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$发布了2024年二季度财报，当季公司的营收和EPS盈利均超预期，备受关注的增长引擎云业务斩获首个季度收入超100亿美元和季度营业利润超10亿美元，但YouTube广告收入在来自TikTok的竞争减弱后仍不及预期，押注AI投资的资本支出为131.86亿美元，超过一季度的120亿美元，令人担心积压利润率。截至发稿，该公司盘后转跌超2%。

Meta发布最强开源AI模型Llama 3.1，隔夜收涨0.26%

美东时间周二，美国科技巨头$Meta Platforms (META.US)$发布了其最强开源人工智能(AI)模型Llama 3.1，拥有三个不同的版本。扎克伯格称其为“业内顶尖水准的”AI模型，并表示能够与OpenAI和谷歌等竞争对手的类似产品相抗衡。Meta的公告显示，Llama 3.1在Llama 3的基础上进行了重大更新，Llama 3.1主要用于驱动聊天机器人，可以进行八种语言的对话，编写更高质量的计算机代码，并可以解决更复杂的数学问题。

Spotify二季度毛利润同比增长45%，Q3盈测超预期

消息面上，$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$Q2营收同比增长20.2%至38.1亿欧元，与分析师预期基本一致；毛利润11.1亿欧元，同比增长45%，略高于分析师预期的10.7亿欧元；每股收益为1.33欧元，高于分析师预期的1.04欧元。展望未来，Spotify预计第三季度营业利润为4.05亿欧元，远高于分析师平均预期的2.98亿欧元。截至收盘，Spotify大涨近12%。

恩智浦绩后跌近8%，拖累部分美股半导体股走低

消息面上，$恩智浦 (NXPI.US)$发布的二季度业绩显示，营收同比下降5.2%至31.3亿美元，低于市场预期；其中，汽车业务收入同比下降7.4%。恩智浦第三季度non-GAAP营收及每股盈利指引均低于分析师预期。恩智浦绩后跌近8%，拖累部分美股半导体股走低，其中，$安森美半导体 (ON.US)$跌超5%、$意法半导体 (STM.US)$、$GlobalFoundries (GFS.US)$跌超4%，$德州仪器 (TXN.US)$、$微芯科技 (MCHP.US)$均跌超3%，$英特尔 (INTC.US)$跌超1%。

苹果可折叠iPhone可能会在2026年发布

据知情人士透露，$苹果 (AAPL.US)$正在研究生产可折叠iPhone，最早可能2026年推出。最近几个月苹果已经在联络亚洲供应商，讨论制作相关配件事宜。据悉这款手机外观将与三星2020年发布的Galaxy Z Flip相似。不过苹果取消研发阶段的项目也是常有之事，目前还无法确定是否一定会推出折叠式手机，但如果真的推出，将是iPhone历史上最大的硬件设计改革之一。截至收盘，苹果涨0.47%。

GE航天航空涨近6%创新高，Q2总订单量同比增长18%，上调全年业绩指引

消息面上，$GE航天航空 (GE.US)$Q2营收为91亿美元，同比增长4%；调整后每股收益为1.2美元，超出分析师一致预期的0.98美元。受益于夏季旅游旺季的强劲需求，总订单量达112亿美元，同比增长18%。该公司上调全年业绩指引，预计每股收益将达到3.95美元-4.20美元每股，此前预期为3.80美元-4.05美元每股；预计自由现金流将达到53亿-56亿美元，此前预期为超50亿美元。

Q2业绩超预期并上调全年收益指引，可口可乐一度涨近2%创新高

消息面上，$可口可乐 (KO.US)$第二季度Non-GAAP营收同比增长2.9%至123.1亿美元，高于市场预期的117.6亿美元；可比每股收益0.84美元，预估0.81美元；毛利率为61.1%，较去年同期的59.0%高2.1个百分点。可口可乐上调全年指引，预计全年可比每股收益增长6%，此前预期增长5%。截至收盘，可口可乐微涨0.29%。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水继续加仓腾讯超4亿港元，买入小米近2亿港元

7月23日（周二），南下资金净买入港股9,440万港元。

$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$工商银行 (01398.HK)$、$小米集团-W (01810.HK)$分别获净买入4.3亿港元、2.34亿港元、1.97亿港元；

$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$紫金矿业 (02899.HK)$、$美团-W (03690.HK)$分别遭净卖出16.6亿港元、9,533万港元、7,200万港元。

雷军：小米汽车SU7 Ultra量产版明年上市

雷军在其2024年年度演讲返场直播中表示，小米汽车SU7 Ultra量产版将于明年正式上市。

今日关注

关键词：美国新屋销售数据、PMI初值、福特汽车财报

周三，经济数据方面，美国将公布新屋销售总数年化数据，及$标普全球 (SPGI.US)$制造业、服务业PMI初值。

财经事件方面，加拿大央行公布利率决议和货币政策报告。

财报方面，$福特汽车 (F.US)$将于美股盘后公布业绩。

牛牛晨读：

如果你没有持有一种股票10年的准备，那么连10分钟都不要持有这种股票。
——巴菲特

编辑/eason

Hot news

Biden withdraws, “Trump deal” cools down! Traders are betting again on US election concept stocks

US President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the election and support Kamala Harris prompted traders to evaluate and adjust their bets on various sectors. Stocks that performed better are expected to rise after the Democrats win, and the “Trump deal,” which will benefit from the Republican Party's victory, will be impacted. Renewable energy and photovoltaic companies, electric vehicle manufacturers, and cannabis stocks rose, while stocks in oil and gas, finance and healthcare declined. Analysts pointed out, “We think this decision will reset the election and reduce the certainty that Trump will win.”

The Ethereum Spot ETF is coming on Tuesday, and the US SEC approves applications from BlackRock and many other companies

On Monday, July 22, EST, according to regulatory documents and announcements from relevant companies, the US Securities Regulatory Commission (SEC) officially approved several companies' Ethereum spot ETF listing and trading applications. The Ethereum ETF is scheduled to be listed and traded on Tuesday morning EST. Seven issuers, including BlackRock and Fidelity, set rates of 0.19% to 0.25%, while Grayscale's fund rate for converting trusts to ETFs is still 2.5%. The agency predicts that the first year of ETF listing may attract 15 billion to 20 billion US dollars in capital inflows.

Bitcoin ETF funds have been flowing in for four consecutive weeks, and the market awaits Trump's speech at a major cryptocurrency conference this week

Bitcoin ETF has accumulated inflows of more than 3.1 billion dollars over four weeks. Harris has not publicly discussed her views on cryptocurrencies, but if her position is similar to Biden, traders may continue to believe that Trump is more beneficial to the industry. According to media reports, Trump may propose to list Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset at this week's Bitcoin conference.

Hedge funds cut their holdings of US stocks last week at the fastest rate since January 2021

Hedge funds want “cash to be king” before the US presidential election in November. Goldman Sachs's brokerage business said that overall, this week was full of painful liquidation, and early winners such as semiconductors, oversized stocks, and artificial intelligence concept stocks all fell sharply. Goldman Sachs's brokerage division said that in the week ending July 19, hedge funds were rapidly closing their long and short positions, and the speed of hedge fund sell-off was the fastest since January 2021.

Wells Fargo: The Federal Reserve is expected to open the door to interest rate cuts this month

Despite the growing political turmoil in the US, investors insist that US interest rates will fall this year. According to CME data, the possibility that the Fed will stay on hold next week and cut interest rates on September 18 is over 90%, and the possibility of cutting interest rates three times this year is close to 50%. This has hardly changed from before Biden withdrew from the election campaign. Wells Fargo economists said in a report that they expect the Federal Reserve to keep its policy unchanged this month, which will open the door to interest rate cuts. They added that the Federal Reserve's past record shows that it will not shy away from cutting interest rates during the last meeting before the election.

Resumption of US stock trading

On Monday, the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. The China General Index surged 2.77%, and Tesla rose more than 5%

The NASDAQ rose 1.58%, the S&P 500 rose 1.08%, and the Dow rose 0.32%.

Most of the big tech stocks rose; Tesla rose more than 5%, Nvidia rose more than 4%, Google and Meta rose more than 2%, Microsoft rose more than 1%, and Apple and Amazon fell slightly. CrowdStrike fell more than 13%, the biggest two-day decline in history, and a new low since mid-January.

Popular Chinese securities generally rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 2.77%. Xiaopeng Motors rose more than 6%, NIO rose more than 5%, Tencent Music and Ideal Auto rose more than 4%, and NetEase, JD, Baidu, and Bilibili rose more than 2%.

Tesla surged more than 5%. Musk says the company will produce humanoid robots in small quantities next year

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The closing was up more than 5%. Musk said on Monday that next year Tesla will produce humanoid robots in small quantities for internal use within the company. A few months ago, he announced that he would launch a humanoid robot by the end of 2024. Musk said the company will mass produce robots in 2026 and “hopes” they can be used by other companies.

This week, Google and Tesla will dominate the fate of US tech stocks

This week, the eyes of the global financial market will be on Tesla and Google.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$und$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Both companies will release financial reports on July 23, or this Tuesday. With the support of generative AI, Google is expected to continue its strong growth in Q1, and Q2 cloud revenue is expected to increase 25% year over year. Tesla's Q2 gross margin falls short of expectations, and investors will focus on the latest news on FSD, Robotaxi, and energy storage.

Nvidia wants to “seize” the Chinese market: it is allegedly preparing to launch a “compliant flagship” AI chip

People familiar with the matter revealed to the media that it is the “general leader in AI”$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$A new flagship AI chip is being developed for the Chinese market. The chip will comply with current US export control regulations. According to them, Nvidia will partner with Inspur Group, one of its distributors in China, to distribute this chip, tentatively named “B20.” However, the report did not mention the performance or parameter information of the AI chip.

Global IT downtime aftershocks continue, CrowdStrike has fallen more than 10% over the past few days, and stocks have been downgraded

cybersecurity company$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$It fell more than 13%, hitting a low of more than six months. The system outage caused by CrowdStrike is the most serious in recent years. Although CrowdStrike has fixed related configuration errors, it will still take several days to fully resolve the issue. A number of investment banks have lowered their target prices for CrowdStrike. Analysts Guggenheim, who downgraded the CrowdStrike rating from buy to neutral, believe that the division will take some time to repair its image, which may affect the signing of the contract.

Microsoft's technical failure caused global losses or more than 1 billion dollars

According to estimates by Patrick Anderson, CEO of the American research institute Anderson Economic Group, this time$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The economic loss caused by the technical failure event is likely to exceed $1 billion. However, according to the report, it is unclear whether the “crowdstrike” company will pay for the related losses. Although the “crowdstrike” company has apologized, it has not responded to US media inquiries about whether it will pay compensation to affected customers. Some analysts pointed out that there may be exemptions in the contracts signed between “crowdstrike” companies and customers, which could allow them to avoid compensation.

NXP Semiconductors' revenue guidance for the third fiscal quarter was disappointing, falling nearly 8% after the market

$NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)$Adjusted earnings per share for the second fiscal quarter were $3.20, in line with analysts' expectations; revenue for the second quarter was $3.13 billion, in line with analysts' expectations; projected earnings per share for the third quarter were $3.21-3.63, and analysts expected $3.56 billion; projected revenue for the third quarter was 3.15 billion dollars, and analysts expected $3.35 billion; and the adjusted operating profit for the third fiscal quarter was $1.08 billion - $1.21 billion Analysts expect $1.17 billion; the adjusted gross profit margin for the third fiscal quarter is 58%-59%, and analysts expect 58.5%. After the results were announced, NXP dropped nearly 8% after the market.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

Nanshui significantly increased Tencent's holdings by more than HK$1 billion and sold Meituan by more than HK$0.3 billion

On Monday July 22, Southbound Capital made a net purchase of 3.692 billion yuan.

which$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$Net purchases ranked in the top three, receiving net purchases of HK$1.286 billion, HK$1.011 billion, and HK$0.277 billion respectively.

In terms of net sales,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$CNOOC (00883.HK)$Net sales were HK$0.323 billion, HK$0.076 billion, and HK$0.03 billion respectively.

Berkshire continues to reduce its holdings in BYD, and its shareholding ratio falls below 5%

After a month, Buffett once again took steps to reduce his holdings at BYD. Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents on Monday show that on July 16, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reduced its holdings by 1.3955 million shares at an average price of HK$246.96 per share$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$, the holding ratio fell from 5.06% to 4.94%. Some analysts point out that once the shareholding ratio falls to 5%, Buffett will speed up the pace of reducing holdings because shareholders holding 5% or less of their holdings do not need to be disclosed.

Today's attention

Keywords: Tesla, Google, Coca Cola, Visa financial report

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the US will release annual data on total existing home sales.

In terms of financial events, the Turkish central bank announced the interest rate decision, and the ECB's chief economist Lien delivered a speech.

In terms of financial reports,$Coca-Cola (KO.US)$,$GE Aerospace (GE.US)$,$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$Financial reports will be announced in advance of the US stock market.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$,$Visa (V.US)$Earnings will be announced after the market.

Futubull Chen read:

Investments must be rational. If you can't understand it, don't do it.
—Buffett

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