According to data from the National Financial Bureau, the commercial vehicle export market has experienced explosive growth in recent years, while the domestic commercial vehicle market has experienced strong growth before 2021 and has recently entered a slow growth phase. Due to the complex impact of the Spring Festival, domestic sales of commercial vehicles in January and February of this year have been relatively low, but they have increased significantly from March to June. From January to June of this year, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 1.43 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. Domestic sales of commercial vehicles in June reached 0.22 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a month-on-month decrease of 11% compared to May. By June 2024, new energy commercial vehicles will reach a penetration rate of 16% in the commercial vehicle market, and the penetration rate of new energy in June will reach 21%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared to June last year. Market performance of new energy light vehicles and other models is relatively strong.

1. Analysis of national compulsory insurance data for the commercial vehicle market.

In recent years, the domestic commercial vehicle market has shown a rapid decline in demand. From the high sales volume in 2020 to the policy entry period in 2021. It will be in a low period from 2022 to 2023. From January to June of this year, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 1.43 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. Domestic sales of commercial vehicles in June reached 0.22 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a month-on-month decrease of 11% compared to May. It has grown year-on-year by factors such as market recovery from January to June this year.

The commercial vehicle market this year shows an overall stable trend, with monthly trends similar to those in 2021, and relatively large fluctuations from January to June. Due to the Spring Festival error, commercial vehicle sales in June this year were 0.22 million units, a month-on-month decrease for three consecutive months, and demand recovery after May this year was not significant.

The comprehensive inventory growth for January to December 2023 should reach 0.42 million units, reaching a historical high. The remaining inventory of factory sales-insurance-export for the first half of 2024 was 0.244 million units, relatively large. The inventory in June 2024 increased significantly by 0.0412 million units, and the inventory was abundant.

2. Analysis of national new energy commercial vehicle market sales.

From January to June 2024, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles will reach 0.228 million units, a year-on-year increase of 119%. The sales in June 2024 reached 0.046 million units, an increase of 88% year-on-year, and the performance was relatively strong, showing a good growth trend in the market after continuous subsidies.

In 2023, new energy commercial vehicles as a whole have a feature of forming a low range due to the impact of subsidy withdrawal from January to April, and then strong growth from May to December. From January to February 2024, it will return to normal monthly trends, and from the beginning of 3-6 months after the holiday, it will also show a good growth trend of rapid recovery.

3. Penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles.

From 2019 to 2021, the overall penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles was around 3%. It reached 9% in 2022 and 11% in 2023. From January to June of this year, it reached a good level of 16%, reflecting the strong growth trend of new energy commercial vehicles. In June 2024, the penetration rate of new energy will reach 21%, which is 10 percentage points higher than that of June last year, and the performance is relatively strong.

From 2019 to 2021, the penetration rate of the entire new energy commercial vehicle was at the level of around 3%, which reached 9% in 2022 and 11% in 2023. From January to June of this year, it reached the good level of 16%, reflecting the strong growth trend of new energy commercial vehicles.

In 2024, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles for trucks will be 12%, and that of buses will be 56%, both of which will have a small increase compared to the same period. The penetration rate of electric vehicles in light trucks and light buses has increased significantly.

4. Analysis of changes in the commercial vehicle market.

The truck and bus structures of commercial vehicles are relatively stable. Light trucks perform better in trucks, while heavy trucks have strong trends after deep adjustments last year. Light buses perform better in buses, while large and medium-sized buses continue to shrink and perform poorly.

The overall penetration rate of new energy in commercial vehicles is low, and plug-in hybrids have basically no market, while pure electric vehicles perform well. This year, the demand for fuel vehicles in large and medium-sized buses has clearly rebounded and has taken a turn to the return of the fuel vehicle demand after subsidies. The commercial vehicle hydrogen energy relies on subsidies to drive sales. Only the subsidy for large buses is high, but the overall performance of hydrogen energy is average, and the electrification of commercial vehicles performs relatively well.

5. Analysis of commercial vehicle energy structure.

Commercial vehicle companies are mainly supported by light truck companies. Foton and Wuling are the main force in the light truck and micro-car markets, respectively.

6. Analysis of changes in the commercial vehicle competitive structure.

The commercial vehicle enterprise is mainly supported by light truck enterprises, Foton and Wuling are the main force in the light truck and micro-car market sales, respectively.

Overall, medium and heavy-duty trucks have a higher market share in the central and northwestern regions of the Yellow River area. New energy heavy trucks have performed well in the south and northwest regions, with the penetration rate particularly high in the south, though it has improved somewhat more slowly in the east.

FAW Jiefang, Sinotruk, Dongfeng Automobile, and other companies have shown the best performance in the domestic medium and heavy-duty truck market overall. The performance of heavy-duty trucks overall has been relatively stable, while some second-tier heavy-duty vehicle companies such as XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, and Yutong have improved their penetration rates for electric vehicles.

8. Regional Market Structure of Light Trucks

Light trucks are mainly performing strongly in eastern and northern China, as well as southwestern China. The main market for new energy light trucks is still relatively strong in the eastern and southern China markets, while the overall market of Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai has seen a relative decline this year.

The main manufacturers of domestic light trucks are still Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Jianghuai Automobile, Sinotruk, and Dongfeng Automobile and other companies. Especially in recent years, small and micro trucks such as Wuling and Changan have progressively performed better in the small and light truck markets. The main companies for new energy light trucks are Geely Auto and Xinyuan Auto, with Geely Auto performing particularly well in new energy light trucks in the past two years.

9. Regional Market Structure of Light-duty Buses

The sales of domestic light buses are mainly in the economically developed region of southern China. Due to the impact of the road rights policy, the sales of fuel light buses in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai have declined, especially in the southern market, where the market for fuel light buses has declined rapidly. New energy light buses are mainly in high demand in developed regions, and the south China market has performed relatively well for new energy.

The main manufacturers of light buses are mainly Jiangling Motors Corporation, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Geely Commercial Vehicle, SAIC Maxus, Beiqi Foton, Changan Autos, and other companies, with Jiangling Motors Corporation maintaining an absolute dominant position, but the new energy light buses of emerging companies such as Geely Commercial Vehicle have performed well. Recently, Wuling's electric light bus has finally launched, and it should be effective.

10. Regional Market Structure of Large Bus

The market for large and medium-sized buses has shown relatively strong performance recently, and overall has performed well. The high-penetration market for new energy large and medium-sized buses is mainly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, South China, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Other regions have exhibited average performance.

The main manufacturers of large and medium-sized buses are still Yutong, King Long, and other companies that have performed relatively well, especially in traditional fuel vehicles. Companies like Golden Dragon have also performed relatively well. The businesses with high new energy large and medium-sized bus penetration rates are mainly second-tier companies, and the main companies are developing new energy comprehensively while performing well in the traditional fuel vehicle market.