Global macro
Before the opening on Tuesday, the futures of the three major indexes of the US stocks fell slightly.
Harris is said to have received enough representative votes to launch his final challenge to Trump.
The presidential candidate of the main party has been confirmed. Unofficial statistics show that Harris has already won the support of 2668 delegates on Monday night, US time, far more than the required 1976 votes, confirming her qualification as a presidential candidate. In addition to enough party delegate votes, Harris has also received support from many important figures in the Democratic Party, including former President Clinton and former Speaker Pelosi. Even donors have poured great enthusiasm for her, donating up to $81 million in funds within 24 hours after announcing her candidacy.
The "Trump trade" in the US bond market has stagnated and investors are refocusing on economic data and the Fed.
With Vice President Harris gaining the support of Democrats, bond traders are reevaluating the so-called "Trump trade," weighing political turmoil against upcoming new economic data and future US interest rate trends. Last weekend's trading in the US Treasury market showed that investors were already preparing for President Biden's decision to abandon his reelection campaign. This means that the US yield curve has slightly flattened, marking a weakening trend of betting on rising bond yields. This bet on the steeper US bond yield curve is one of the so-called "Trump trades," which bets that Trump's loose fiscal policy, increased trade tariffs, and relaxed regulation will push the US bond yield curve steeper.
BlackRock: bullish on technology stocks and sees market corrections as buying opportunities.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$BlackRock released a report stating that despite recent volatility in US stock markets, technology stocks are still bullish and are the driving force behind the market rebound, especially since tech stocks will announce quarterly results at the end of August. Therefore, it regards the market correction as a buying opportunity. BlackRock said it is important to pay attention to how the weak US consumer price index (CPI) is converted to the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index. At the same time, cooling inflation means the Fed may start cutting interest rates in the next few months. However, the outlook is optimistic based on long-term structural changes such as AI, rather than short-term economic data such as CPI.
"The bad months of US stocks in August and October" are coming.
According to a report by BC Capital Markets, July is usually the strongest month for the S&P 500 index, with an average increase of 4.26% in July over the past five years. The problem usually occurs between August and October. During these three months, the historical performance of the S&P 500 index is relatively weak compared to other months. Among them, the five-year average decline of the S&P 500 index in September is the largest, at -4.23%.
Goldman Sachs: The physical gold demand in the Chinese market still dominates, and the gold price is expected to reach $2700 next year.
Goldman Sachs analysts, including Lina Thomas, pointed out in a report that physical gold demand in the Chinese market still dominates. Considering that Chinese consumers are highly sensitive to prices, Goldman Sachs predicts that for every 10% drop in the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold price, physical gold demand in China will increase by 16%. Goldman Sachs maintains its bullish stance on gold prices and predicts that the price of gold will reach $2700 by 2025, about 12.6% higher than the current gold price.
Star tech stocks rose and fell before the market, and Tesla rose more than 1%.
Hot news
CrowdStrike rose more than 1.3% before the market, and fell by a cumulative 23% in the past two days. "Mutojie" bought nearly 0.06 million shares. On the news side, after the global IT failure last week, CrowdStrike fell cumulatively 23% in the past two trading days. At a time when investors were eager to sell, "Mutojie" Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management Company chose to buy on dips. Ark's two funds, ARKF and ARKW, bought a total of 20219 shares of CrowdStrike on Monday (22nd), worth about $5.34 million. After last Friday's system failure, Ark's two ETFs rushed to buy 38595 shares of CrowdStrike stock, worth about $13.24 million.
CrowdStrike rose more than 1.3% before the market opened. In the past two days, the cumulative decline has reached 23%. 'Miss Wood' bought nearly 0.06 million shares on dips.
In light of last week's global IT failure, $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$In the midst of a cumulative two-day decline of 23% and investors eager to sell, Cathie Wood, also known as "Queen of Wood," chose to buy low under Ark Investment Management. Both ARKF and ARKW, two funds under the Ark banner, bought a total of 20,219 shares of CrowdStrike on Monday, worth approximately $5.34 million. It is reported that after the incident occurred on Friday last week, Ark's two ETFs first seized 38,595 shares of CrowdStrike stocks, worth approximately $13.24 million.
India has reduced the import tariff on mobile phones by 5%, and Apple Inc is expected to increase revenue by 50 million US dollars.
India announced on Tuesday that it will reduce the import tariffs on smartphones and some key components from 20% to 15%, benefiting Apple, Samsung and other smartphone manufacturers. Counterpoint Research pointed out that the 5% tax reduction will bring Apple an annual benefit of $35 million to $50 million.$Apple (AAPL.US)$Samsung and other smart phone manufacturers. Counterpoint Research pointed out that a 5% tax cut will benefit Apple by $35 million to $50 million annually.
Citi: observe Nvidia's upward catalyst for 30 days and set a target price of $150.
Citibank has issued a report stating that, in response to the SIGGRAPH computer graphics conference held in Denver, USA on July 29th, ...$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Starting on the 30th, catalyst observations will be conducted on three primary reasons: (1) Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun and Meta CEO Zuckerberg are likely to discuss the future of AI development, with Nvidia expected to announce the long-anticipated Grace CPU chip server based on ARM; (2) Huang Renxun's remarks will provide positive news regarding the profit model and investment return of end customers; (3) an announcement on the need for accelerated AI demand is expected, with recent stock price declines due to geopolitical factors (PE discount of 13% compared to the three-year average level) being viewed as a buying opportunity.
Goldman Sachs: Raises Netflix's 12-Month target price to $659, Q2 performance is stable.
Goldman Sachs released a report stating that $Netflix (NFLX.US)$Q2 performance is stable, with subscription growth exceeding market expectations, although revenue growth prospects may be affected by exchange rates and subscription plan combinations. Management still indicates that there is room for profit margin improvement and promises to feedback shareholders through buybacks of free cash flow. The bank believes that, in the long run, its business model will support revenue growth over the next few years and improve profit margins. The stock is currently balanced in terms of risk and reward, maintaining its "neutral" rating, and raising its 12-month target price from $650 to $659, reflecting a projected PE of approximately 28 times for next year.
The 5-year interest-free purchase promotion for certain models of tesla Model 3/Y has been extended until the end of August.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$According to the Chinese official website, the deadline for the 5-year, 0% interest promotion for some Model 3 and Model Y models has been extended from July 31st to August 31st. It is understood that the promotion only covers rear-wheel drive or long-endurance all-wheel drive versions, excluding high-performance versions.
Google's largest ever transaction falls through! Wiz rejects $23 billion takeover bid and insists on IPO route.
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$Negotiations to acquire cybersecurity company Wiz have ended, and the proposed acquisition, which was set to become Google's largest ever transaction, has fallen through. It is reported that Google was quite sincere in its offer for the acquisition, which was nearly twice Wiz's $12 billion valuation in the latest round of financing. Wiz CEO Asaf Rapaport announced in an email to employees that the goal now is to launch an IPO and to plan for recurring revenue of $1 billion per year before the IPO.
Zuckerberg confirms Meta will launch new AR glasses before the end of the year.
A netizen posted on the Threads platform, showing a photo shared by Mark Zuckerberg earlier this year, with two pairs of glasses magnified.$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Zuckerberg subsequently replied to the netizen, saying, we will share more information later this year. In an interview with YouTube host Kallaway, Zuckerberg confirmed that Meta will release a brand new AR smart glasses by the end of this year, saying that Meta is almost ready to showcase the product prototype.
Spotify soars nearly 14% pre-market, Q2 YoY profitable, Q3 profit guidance far exceeds expectations.
$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$Monthly active users were 0.626 billion in Q2, estimated to be 0.63146 billion; Q3 revenue is expected to be 4 billion euros, with the market estimating 4.01 billion euros; Q3 MAU (monthly active users) is expected to be 0.639 billion, with the market estimating 0.65045 billion. Looking ahead, Spotify expects Q3 operating profit of 0.405 billion euros ($0.44 billion), well above Wall Street's average estimate of 0.2981 billion euros. The company expects Q3 revenue to reach 4 billion euros, up from 3.4 billion euros in the same period last year.
NXP Semiconductors falls more than 8% pre-market, Q2 automotive business drags down revenue below expectations, weak performance guidance.
$NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)$Q2 revenue was $3.13 billion, down 5.2% YoY, with the market expecting $3.4 billion; EPS was $2.54, with the market expecting $2.52, compared to $2.67 in the same period last year. The largest source of revenue during the quarter was automotive business, which generated $1.728 billion, down 7.4% YoY and far more than the 1.3% decline in Q1, reflecting the industry's sluggish situation.
Coca-Cola's Q2 revenue grew 2.9% YoY, exceeding expectations, net income fell 28.8%.
coca-cola (KO.US) Announced financial report shows that the company's Q2 Non-GAAP revenue grew 2.9% YoY to $12.31 billion (GAAP revenue was $12.36 billion), ahead of market expectations of $11.76 billion. EPS grew by 7.7% YoY to $0.84, exceeding market expectations of $0.81. Adjusted net income was $2.41 billion, down 28.8% YoY.
General Motors' Q2 net sales and revenue exceed expectations, up nearly 4% pre-market.
$General Motors (GM.US)$Q2 net sales and revenue were $47.97 billion, estimated at $45.62 billion. Q2 adjusted EPS was $3.06, estimated at $2.71. General Motors expects adjusted EPS of $9.50-$10.50 for the full year, up from a previous estimate of $9-10. General Motors expects full-year adjusted EBIT of $13 billion to $15 billion. General Motors expects full-year net income of $10 billion to $11.4 billion.
UPS Q2 revenue falls short of expectations, down nearly 8% pre-market.
$United Parcel Service (UPS.US)$Q2 revenue was $21.8 billion, expected $22.21 billion. Q2 EPS was $1.65, compared to $2.42 in the same period last year. Adjusted EPS was $1.79, expected $1.98. Share buyback plan has been restarted, with a target of $1 billion per year.
Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.
China concept stocks fell before the market, with XPeng down nearly 4%, Li Auto and NIO down more than 2%, and Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com down more than 1%.
Temu, a subsidiary of pdd holdings, generated a GMV in the first half of the year that exceeded last year's full-year GMV.
According to 36Kr,$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$Temu's sales in the first half of this year surged to about $20 billion, while Temu's sales in 2023 were $18 billion.
The world's first! Ehang's self-driving passenger drone has received the operation certificate for general aviation.
Recently, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has officially accepted$EHang (EH.US)$The wholly-owned subsidiary Guangdong EHang General Aviation Co., Ltd. and its joint venture operating company Hefei Hexie Aviation Co., Ltd. submitted applications for the operation certificate of non-piloted passenger aircraft to carry out the non-piloted passenger aircraft for the two companies, and reached consensus with the applicants on the review process, review subjects, review framework and other aspects.
Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.
Reminder for US Macro Events
(All in Peking Time)
US existing home sales annualized total in June at Beijing time 22:00.
Crude oil inventory changes as of the week ending July 19th in the United States at Beijing time the next day 04:30.
Performance forecast.
After-market on Tuesday:$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$,$Visa (V.US)$,$Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$
Before-market on Wednesday:$Deutsche Bank (DB.US)$,$AT&T (T.US)$
Editor/Emily