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哈里斯或将在11月对战特朗普!胜率几何?

Will Harris battle Trump in November? What are the chances of winning?

Golden10 Data ·  Jul 23 23:44

Data from forecasting markets, opinion polls, and approval ratings suggest that Harris's chances of winning seem...

Vice President Harris has now gained enough support to become the Democratic Party candidate, becoming a key figure in this year's U.S. presidential election against Trump. Biden and some politicians who were once considered potential Democratic candidates, including Michigan Governor Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, have expressed their support for Harris.But it is Biden who expressed his support in the first place. In terms of product structure, the operating income of 100-300 billion yuan products was RMB 401/1288/60 million respectively.

According to "incomplete and unofficial statistics" compiled by delegates to the Democratic National Convention by the Associated Press, as of Monday noon, Harris had received the vast majority of support, with a small number yet to decide.

As for Harris's chances of winning against Trump in the November election, data from prediction markets, polls and approval ratings suggest that Harris's chances of winning are similar to Biden's before the disastrous June 27 debate.

Predictors on the political prediction market PredictIt believe that Trump will return to the White House, but not without some doubt.As of Monday noon local time, Trump's chances of winning were about 60%, while Harris's were 40%, slightly lower than Biden's before the debate. These traders also believe that Harris has an 87% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

The market still favors Trump's return to the White House.
The market still favors Trump's return to the White House.

The gap between Harris and Trump is also reflected in polling data. The average result of a poll conducted by the Financial Times in the UK shows that Harris trails Trump by about three percentage points, a gap that has narrowed in recent weeks and is similar to the gap between Biden and Trump before last Sunday.

But it should be noted that these polls have very small sample sizes and involve many assumptions, rather than the controversial campaign currently underway.

Biden and Harris have very similar approval ratings and have been synchronously changing throughout Biden's tenure. Harris's approval rating is usually slightly lower than Biden's, but this has changed in recent days. According to the average data from FiveThirtyEight, Biden's approval rating has hit a historic low.

There are over 100 days left before the U.S. November 5th election, and these data are sure to change, even drastically, if recent history is any guide. As Harris herself said, Monday "is the first day of our campaign".

At present, Harris's campaign seems to be going well. The U.S. vice president quickly raised $81 million within the first 24 hours of launching her campaign. Harris's campaign team said she had received donations from 0.888 million ordinary people as well as from Wall Street donors.

By contrast, Biden's campaign team raised $63.8 million throughout June. Kevin Munoz, a spokesman for Harris, said in a statement, "We have seen a broad and diverse coalition supporting our key work of engaging with voters, which will determine this election."

Editor/Lambor

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