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市场的新主题:“哈里斯交易”是什么?

What is the new theme in the market: 'Harris trade'?

wallstreetcn ·  Jul 23 08:59

Harris advocates tax cuts for middle and low-income groups, while increasing taxes on the wealthy, which benefits the consumer sector; she hopes to promote U.S. exports, benefiting large multinational companies; and supports the development of clean energy, which will benefit electric cars and photovoltaic stocks.

With Biden announcing his candidacy for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Vice President Harris has become a 'hot pick' for the Democratic presidential nomination. Although Harris has not formally announced her candidacy, investors have begun to pay attention to the potential economic policy changes she may bring.

According to media reports on Tuesday, some analysts believe that Harris's advocacy may be more progressive than the 'Bidenomics,' such as holding a more aggressive stance on clean energy issues.

Similar to Trump, Harris also advocates tax cuts, but she supports tax cuts for middle and low-income groups. For the wealthy and corporations, she hopes to increase taxes. In terms of exports, Harris opposes trade protectionism and aims to promote U.S. exports.

OCBC Bank's Managing Director of Investment Strategy, Vasu Menon, believes that Harris winning the U.S. presidential election would be beneficial for the market. Under Democratic rule, the Federal Reserve can continue its monetary policy with 'political continuity and less policy uncertainty.'

Advocates tax cuts for middle and low-income groups.

During the campaign, Harris proposed providing a monthly $500 tax credit to individuals earning less than $0.1 million, replacing Trump's tax policy implemented in 2017. This legislative proposal is known as the 'Middle Class Boost Act.'

She also plans to increase the estate tax to fund a $300 billion teacher salary increase plan, known as the 'largest federal investment in teacher salaries in American history.' This differs from Biden's proposal to raise the corporate tax rate.

Analysts indicate that if the middle class benefits, the consumer sector and small cap consumer ETFs may benefit.

2. Strengthening USA exports

Harris has criticized Trump's trade policies, emphasizing the need to strengthen USA exports. She opposes Trump's tariff plans, stating that these plans will increase consumer spending on rbob gasoline and groceries, affecting middle-class households.

During the 2019 Democratic primary debates, Harris stated her support for promoting USA exports and declared, "I am not a protectionist Democrat."

If Harris is elected, large multinational corporations in the USA, large cap ETFs may benefit, as large multinational corporations often have broad global coverage and focus on exports.

3. Supporting eco-friendly concept energy

Similar to Biden, Harris has a clear stance on climate and energy policies.

A key achievement during Biden's tenure was signing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the largest climate spending bill in USA history, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 42% below 2005 levels by 2030.

As Vice President, Harris has consistently supported the Biden administration's climate policies, including the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. She advocates for allocating $20 billion to the Environmental Protection Agency's greenhouse gas reduction fund to support the development of clean energy.

Furthermore, Harris emphasizes enhancing regulations on oil companies and other polluting enterprises. She has filed lawsuits against several fossil fuel companies, sued a pipeline company for an oil spill issue, and initiated an investigation into whether ExxonMobil has misled the public on climate change issues.

Advocates for reducing housing burdens.

Harris is concerned about the burden on American residents. She has proposed the Rent Relief Act, offering tax credits to tenants with incomes below $100,000, which could be bullish for the U.S. real estate industry.

Has no clear stance on digital currency.

Harris currently does not have a clear position on digital currency. Unlike other politicians in Congress, Harris has never taken a stance on digital currency, tokens, blockchain, or NFTs.

However, some analysts believe that Harris is likely to continue Biden's policies, as her political base is connected to Biden and most of Harris's supporters come from the Biden camp.

Holds a cautious attitude towards AI.

From previous statements, it can be seen that Harris holds a cautious attitude towards AI.

Harris has stated that when government institutions use AI tools, they are now required to verify that these tools do not jeopardize the rights and security of the American people.

Harris met with executives of several leading technology companies in the first half of the year to discuss key issues related to artificial intelligence. She mentioned that President Biden 'expects companies like yours to ensure the safety of products before they are provided to the public'.

Editor/Somer

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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