FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning Post | "Trump Trade" cools down! Traders are betting again on the concept of the US presidential election; Tesla's performance surged by more than 5% before the announcement, and Musk revealed the progress of humanoid robots.

热点要闻

拜登退选，“特朗普交易”降温！交易员重新押宝美国大选概念股

美国总统拜登退选并支持卡玛拉·哈里斯的决定促使交易员评估和调整对各个板块的押注。预计在民主党人获胜后表现更佳的股票走高，而将受益于共和党获胜的“特朗普交易”受到冲击。可再生能源和光伏公司、电动汽车制造商、大麻类股上涨，石油和天然气、金融和医疗保健类股下跌。分析师指出，“我们认为这一决定将重置选举，降低了特朗普获胜的确定性。”

以太坊现货ETF周二将至，美国SEC批准贝莱德等多家公司申请

美东时间7月22日周一，据监管文件和相关公司的公告，美国证监会（SEC）正式批准了多家公司的以太坊现货ETF上市交易申请。以太坊ETF定于美东时间周二上午上市交易。贝莱德、富达等七家发行人设定费率在0.19%至0.25%，Grayscale将由信托转换为ETF的基金费率仍为2.5%。机构预测ETF上市第一年可能吸引150亿到200亿美元资金流入。

比特币ETF连续四周资金流入，市场等待本周特朗普在重磅加密货币大会上讲话

比特币ETF四周累计流入31亿美元以上。哈里斯并没有公开谈论过她对加密货币的看法，不过如果她的立场与拜登相似，交易员们可能会继续认为，特朗普对该行业更为有利。媒体报道称，特朗普可能会在本周的比特币大会上提议将比特币列为战略性储备资产。

对冲基金上周对美国股票的减持速度创2021年1月以来最快

对冲基金希望在美国11月总统大选之前“现金为王”。高盛经纪业务部门表示，总体而言，这一周充满了痛苦的平仓，半导体、超大盘股、人工智能概念股等前期赢家，都剧烈下跌。高盛经纪业务部门表示，截至7月19日的一周，对冲基金在其多头和空头仓位中汹涌平仓，对冲基金抛售的速度为2021年1月以来最快。

富国银行：料美联储本月将为降息打开大门

尽管美国政治动荡加剧，投资者仍坚持认为美国利率今年将下降。芝商所的数据显示，美联储下周按兵不动和在9月18日降息的可能性都在90%以上，今年总共降息三次的可能性接近50%。这与拜登退出竞选之前几乎没有变化。富国银行经济学家在一份报告中说，他们预计美联储在本月维持政策不变，将为降息打开大门。他们补充说，美联储的过往记录表明，在选举前的最后一次会议上，它不会回避降息。

美股复盘

周一，三大股指集体收涨，中概指数大涨2.77%，特斯拉涨超5%

纳指涨1.58%，标普500指数涨1.08%，道指涨0.32%。

大型科技股多数上涨，特斯拉涨超5%，英伟达涨超4%，谷歌、Meta涨逾2%，微软涨超1%，苹果、亚马逊小幅下跌。CrowdStrike跌超13%，创下历史最大两日跌幅，创1月中旬以来收盘新低。

热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨2.77%。小鹏汽车涨超6%，蔚来涨超5%，腾讯音乐、理想汽车涨超4%，网易、京东、百度、哔哩哔哩涨超2%。

特斯拉大涨超5%，马斯克称明年公司将少量生产人形机器人

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$收涨超5%。马斯克周一表示，明年特斯拉将少量生产人形机器人，供公司内部使用。几个月前，他宣布将在2024年底推出人形机器人。马斯克说，该公司将在2026年实现机器人的量产，“希望”能供其他公司使用。

本周，谷歌和特斯拉将主宰美国科技股的命运

本周，全球金融市场的目光将聚焦在特斯拉和谷歌身上，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$和$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$，两家公司都将于7月23日也就是本周二公布财报。生成式AI加持下，谷歌有望延续Q1的强势增长，Q2云收入预计同比大增25%。特斯拉Q2毛利率或不及预期，投资者将聚焦FSD、Robotaxi和储能等方面的最新消息。

英伟达欲“抓牢”中国市场：据称正准备推一款“合规旗舰版”AI芯片

知情人士对媒体透露称，“AI总龙头”$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$正在为中国市场开发一款新的旗舰AI芯片，该芯片将符合美国目前的出口管制相关规定。根据他们的说法，英伟达将与其在中国的经销商之一——浪潮集团合作，分销这款暂定名为“B20”的芯片。不过，报道并未提及该AI芯片的性能表现或参数信息。

全球IT宕机余震持续，CrowdStrike连日跌超10%，股票被降级

网络安全公司$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$再跌超13%，触及六个多月来的低点。CrowdStrike此次造成的系统宕机是近年来最严重的一次，尽管CrowdStrike已经修复了相关配置错误，但要全面解决问题仍需要数天时间。多家投行下调了CrowdStrike目标价。将CrowdStrike评级从买入下调至中性的Guggenheim分析师认为，该司需要一些时间修复自身形象，可能影响签约。

微软技术故障造成全球损失或超10亿美元

据美国研究机构安德森经济集团首席执行官帕特里克·安德森估计，此次$微软 (MSFT.US)$技术故障事件造成的经济损失很可能超过10亿美元。不过报道称，“众击”公司是否会为相关损失买单尚不好说。“众击”公司虽已道歉，但没有回应美国媒体就是否会给予受影响客户赔偿的问询。有分析人士指出，“众击”公司与客户签订的合同中或许有免责条款，可使其躲过赔偿。

恩智浦半导体第三财季营收指引令人失望，盘后跌近8%

$恩智浦 (NXPI.US)$第二财季调整后每股收益为3.20美元，符合分析师预期；第二财季营收31.3亿美元，符合分析师预期；预计第三财季调整后每股收益为3.21-3.63美元，分析师预期3.56美元；预计第三财季营收31.5亿-33.5亿美元，分析师预期33.5亿美元；预计第三财季调整后运营利润10.8亿-12.1亿美元，分析师预期11.7亿美元；预计第三财季调整后毛利润率为58%-59%，分析师预期58.5%。业绩公布后，恩智浦盘后跌近8%。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

南水大幅加仓腾讯超10亿港元，卖出美团超3亿港元

7月22日周一，南向资金净买入36.92亿元。

其中$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$南方恒生科技 (03033.HK)$净买入额位列前三，分别获净买入12.86亿港元、10.11亿港元、2.77亿港元。

净卖出方面，$美团-W (03690.HK)$、$小米集团-W (01810.HK)$、$中国海洋石油 (00883.HK)$分别遭净卖出3.23亿港元、0.76亿港元、0.3亿港元。

伯克希尔继续减持比亚迪，持股比例跌破5%

时隔一个月，巴菲特再度出手减持比亚迪。港交所周一文件显示，7月16日，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦以平均每股246.96港元的价格，减持139.55万股$比亚迪股份 (01211.HK)$，持仓比例由5.06%降至4.94%。有分析指出，一旦持股比例降至5%，巴菲特会加快减持步伐，因为持股5%以下股东的减持不需要进行披露。

今日关注

关键词：特斯拉、谷歌、可口可乐、Visa财报

周二，经济数据方面，美国将公布成屋销售总数年化数据。

财经事件方面，土耳其央行公布利率决议，欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩发表讲话。

财报方面，$可口可乐 (KO.US)$、$GE航天航空 (GE.US)$、$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$将于美股盘前公布财报，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$、$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$、$Visa (V.US)$将于盘后公布财报。

牛牛晨读：

投资必须是理性的。如果你不能理解它，就不要做。
——巴菲特

编辑/new

Hot news

Biden's withdrawal and support for Kamala Harris have prompted traders to evaluate and adjust their bets on various sectors of the US election concept stocks. Stocks expected to perform better after Democrats win rose, while "Trump trades" benefiting from Republican victories were impacted. Renewable energy and photovoltaic companies, electric vehicle manufacturers, and cannabis stocks rose, while oil and gas, financial, and medical care stocks fell. Analysts pointed out, "We believe that this decision will reset the election and reduce the certainty of Trump's victory."

On Monday, July 22, Eastern Time, according to regulatory documents and announcements from related companies, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved the listing of several companies' Ethereum spot ETFs for trading. The Ethereum ETF is scheduled to begin trading on Tuesday morning Eastern Time. The seven issuers such as Blackrock and Fidelity set rates ranging from 0.19% to 0.25%, while the fund rate for Grayscale, which will convert from a trust to an ETF, remains at 2.5%. Institutions predict that ETFs may attract capital inflows of $15 billion to $20 billion in the first year of listing.

The Biden withdrawal has cooled the 'Trump trade'! Traders are once again betting on US election concept stocks.

The speed at which hedge funds reduced their holdings of US stocks last week was the fastest since January 2021. Hedge funds hope that 'cash is king' before the US November presidential election. Overall, last week was full of painful closing transactions. Semiconductor, mega-cap stocks, and AI concept stocks, which were winners in the early stage, all experienced sharp declines. As of the week ending on July 19, hedge funds were eagerly closing their long and short positions. The speed at which hedge funds sold was the fastest since January 2021.

Bitcoin ETF has seen inflow of funds for four consecutive weeks, and the market is waiting for Trump's speech at the heavyweight cryptos conference this week.

Cumulative inflows of over $3.1 billion in Bitcoin ETFs in four weeks. Harris has not openly discussed her views on cryptocurrencies, but if her position is similar to Biden's, traders may continue to believe that Trump is more favorable to the industry. Media reports stated that Trump may propose to list Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset at this week's Bitcoin conference.

This week, global financial markets will focus on Tesla and Google.

On Monday, the three major stock indexes collectively rose. The China concept stocks index rose significantly by 2.77%, and Tesla rose by more than 5%. The Nasdaq rose by 1.58%, the S&P 500 rose by 1.08%, and the Dow rose by 0.32%. Most large technology stocks rose, with Tesla up more than 5%, Nvidia up more than 4%, Google and Meta up more than 2%, Microsoft up more than 1%, Apple and Amazon slightly down. CrowdStrike fell more than 13%, setting a record for the largest two-day decline and a new closing low since mid-January.

Wells Fargo & Co: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will open the door to interest rate cuts this month.

Despite the escalating political turmoil in the USA, investors still believe that the country's interest rates will drop this year. The data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that there is a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain status quo next week, but will reduce interest rates on September 18th. The possibility of three interest rate cuts this year is close to 50%, which has hardly changed since Biden withdrew from the election. Economists at Wells Fargo & Co. said in a report that they expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its policy this month, which will open the door for interest rate cuts. They added that the Fed's past record shows that it will not avoid interest rate cuts at the last meeting before the election.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

The popular China concept stocks rose across the board, and the Nasdaq China Dragon Index rose by 2.77%. Xpeng rose more than 6%, Nio rose more than 5%, Tencent Music and Li Auto rose more than 4%, and Netease, JD, Baidu, and Bilibili rose more than 2%.

Tesla rose more than 5%, closing up by more than 5%. Musk said on Monday that Tesla will produce humanoid robots in small quantities next year for internal use. A few months ago, he announced that humanoid robots will be launched by the end of 2024. Musk said that the company will achieve mass production of robots in 2026 and "hopes" to make them available to other companies.

In 2023, the company's overall sales volume of 18,000 kiloliters, +28.10% year-on-year, significant growth. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

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Tesla surged more than 5%, with Musk stating that the company will produce humanoid robots in small quantities next year.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$It closed up more than 5%. On Monday, Musk said Tesla will produce humanoid robots in small quantities next year for internal use, months after he announced that the company would launch humanoid robots by the end of 2024. Musk said the company will begin mass production of robots in 2026 and hopes they can be used by other companies.

This week, major hedge funds are cutting their positions, focusing on the US election, and analyzing and adjusting various mainstream stock sectors such as semiconductors and mega-cap stocks.

Goldman Sachs brokerage department stated that this week was filled with painful closing transactions. The previous winners, such as semiconductor stocks, mega-cap stocks, and AI concept stocks, all experienced sharp declines.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$And.$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Both companies will release their financial reports on July 23, this Tuesday. With the support of generative AI, Google is expected to continue its strong growth in Q1, and Q2 cloud revenue is expected to increase by 25% YoY. Tesla's Q2 gross margin may not meet expectations, and investors will focus on the latest news on FSD, Robotaxi, and energy storage.

Nvidia intends to "secure" the Chinese market and is reportedly preparing to launch a "compliant flagship version" AI chip.

According to insiders, the "AI leader" is$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$developing a new flagship AI chip for the Chinese market that complies with current U.S. export control regulations. According to their statement, NVIDIA will work with one of its distributors in China - Inspur Group to distribute the chip, tentatively named "B20". However, the report did not mention the performance or parameter information of the AI chip.

The global IT outage continued to affect CrowdStrike, which fell more than 10% for several consecutive days and was downgraded by analysts. The stock fell more than 13%, hitting a low point in over six months. The system outage caused by CrowdStrike this time is the most serious in recent years. Although CrowdStrike has fixed the relevant configuration errors, it will still take several days to fully resolve the issue. Several investment banks have lowered CrowdStrike's target price. Guggenheim analyst who lowered CrowdStrike's rating from buy to neutral believes that the company needs some time to fix its image, which may affect its signing.

Cybersecurity company CrowdStrike rose 7.29%, and officially joined the S&P 500 index on Monday. Some foreign analysts believe that CrowdStrike's valuation is out of sync with the industry average. At present, perhaps CrowdStrike's momentum will not be as strong as before.$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$According to Patrick Anderson, CEO of the American research firm Anderson Economic Group, the economic losses caused by this technology outage incident are likely to exceed $1 billion. However, the report stated that it is not yet clear whether CrowdStrike will pay for these losses. Although CrowdStrike has apologized, it has not responded to inquiries from the American media about whether it will compensate affected customers. Some analysts pointed out that there may be exemption clauses in the contract signed between CrowdStrike and its customers, which may allow it to evade compensation.

Microsoft technology malfunction causing global losses of over 1 billion US dollars.

NXP Semiconductors' third-quarter revenue guidance disappointed investors, and the stock fell nearly 8% after hours. EPS for the second quarter was $3.20, meeting analysts' expectations. Q2 revenue was $3.13 billion, also matching analysts' expectations. It is expected that the adjusted EPS for Q3 will be $3.21-3.63, with analysts expecting $3.56. It is expected that the Q3 revenue will be $3.15-3.35 billion, with analysts expecting $3.35 billion. The adjusted operating profit for Q3 is expected to be $1.08-1.21 billion, with analysts expecting $1.17 billion. The adjusted gross margin for Q3 is expected to be 58%-59%, with analysts expecting 58.5%. After the performance announcement, NXP Semiconductors fell nearly 8% after hours.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Berkshire Hathaway continued to reduce its holdings in BYD, and its shareholding ratio fell below 5%. After a month, Buffett once again reduced his holdings in BYD. According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange filing on Monday, on July 16, Berkshire Hathaway reduced its holdings by 1.3955 million shares at an average price of HK$246.96 per share, and the shareholding ratio dropped from 5.06% to 4.94%. Some analysts pointed out that once the shareholding ratio drops below 5%, Buffett will accelerate the pace of reduction, because the reduction of shareholders below 5% does not require disclosure.

"AI leader"

$NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)$is developing a new flagship AI chip for the Chinese market that complies with current U.S. export control regulations. According to their statement, NVIDIA will work with one of its distributors in China - Inspur Group to distribute the chip, tentatively named "B20". However, the report did not mention the performance or parameter information of the AI chip.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Nanshui significantly increased its holdings in Tencent by over 1 billion Hong Kong dollars, and sold more than 0.3 billion Hong Kong dollars of Meituan.

On Monday, July 22, southbound funds net bought 3.692 billion yuan.

6 cases of squamous cell carcinoma and 1 case of lung adenocarcinoma achieved PR, with ORR of 100% and 33.3%, and DCR of 100%.$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$Net purchase amount ranked top three, with net purchases of 1.286 billion Hong Kong dollars, 1.011 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.277 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively.

On the net selling side,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$CNOOC (00883.HK)$Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology(600733.SH) received a net purchase of 0.502 billion yuan, 0.384 billion yuan, and 0.263 billion yuan respectively. Citic sec(600030.SH) had the highest net selling amount, with a total of 0.479 billion yuan.

The entire company's sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, a significant increase of 28.10% YoY. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products with revenues of 10-30 billion yuan was 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

The weather is good today The weather is good today.$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: Tesla, Google, Coca-Cola, Visa's financial reports

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the annualized data on existing home sales.

In terms of financial events, the Central Bank of Turkey will announce its interest rate decision, and the chief economist of the European Central Bank will deliver a speech.

Regarding financial reports,coca-cola (KO.US) ,$GE Aerospace (GE.US)$,$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$Will release financial report before the US stock market opens.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$,$Visa (V.US)$Will release financial report after market close.

Futubull Morning News:

Investment must be rational. If you can't understand, don't do it.
- Buffett

Editor/new

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