Source: Wall Street See News Author: Bu Shuqing.
According to a survey by Daiwa Securities, 68% of investors consider AI as the main driving force for Tesla's stock price in the next year, with only 33% leaning towards electric vehicles. Daiwa Securities has set a target price of $310, which is 26% higher than the current price.
Elon Musk has repeatedly mentioned that Tesla is an AI+robotics company, not just an auto company. Nowadays, as the decline in electric vehicle business becomes a consensus, investors will pay more attention to Tesla's "AI narrative".
Last weekend, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas released a Tesla investor survey report. The results showed that 68% of investors see AI as the main driving force for Tesla's stock price in the next year, with only 33% leaning towards electric vehicles.
The report also pointed out that investors' views on Tesla's stock performance in the next 12 months are almost "evenly distributed", highlighting the market's uncertainty about the company's future.
This survey was conducted on July 17th and collected 137 responses within 24 hours. Although the sample size is limited, it still reflects a significant change in investor sentiment.
It is worth noting that Morgan Stanley also pointed out that it is time to consider Tesla's "grand plan Chapter 4".
Last month, Morgan Stanley released a report predicting that Chapter 4 will be supported by AI, robotics, and hybrid computing technologies, linking Tesla with Musk's other businesses (including SpaceX, Starlink, X and xAI), and investors should be prepared for this.
They believe that the significance of this new plan may change due to the results of the US election. It was previously widely expected that after Trump returned to the White House, the US government would introduce a series of economic stimulus policies, which would be bullish for Tesla and other domestic US companies. However, with Biden dropping out, the direction of the election has begun to change.
Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley still maintains an optimistic attitude towards Tesla and gives a target price of $310, which is 26% higher than the current price. This valuation takes into account Tesla's auto business, mobility services and other sectors. Specifically:
Core auto business: $56/share
Tesla mobility service: $61/share
Third-party supplier business: $40/share
Energy business: $50/share
Insurance business: $5/share
Network services: $97/share
This report also implies that investors' valuation logic for Tesla is undergoing a transformation - moving from a traditional electric vehicle manufacturer to a technology company. However, Morgan Stanley cautions that this transformation also brings new uncertainties, especially if the market does not fully appreciate the potential of Tesla's AI-related business.
Tesla will release its Q2 financial report after the US market close on Tuesday, July 23. Wall Street expects Tesla's Q2 revenue to decline slightly year-on-year, and EPS to decrease by about 30% year-on-year. Considering Tesla's sales growth is leveling off, the market expects its performance this year to be "not very good". At that time, the market will focus on the latest news of the affordable Model 2, Robotaxi release time, FSD technology adoption rate, etc.
Editor/Lambor