Leading domestic glass fiber enterprise, integrated layout of the entire industry chain. As of the end of '23, Changhai Co., Ltd. had a production capacity of 0.29 million tons of glass fiber and products, ranking 5th in the country. It had a production capacity of 0.17 million tons of chemical products including unsaturated polyester resins and glass fiber adhesives. The company is one of the few companies in the industry with a full industrial chain from the production of glass fiber raw yarn to the deep processing of glass fiber products to the manufacturing of glass fiber composites.
The invisible champion of glass fiber products, establishing a differentiated competitive advantage. Unlike enterprises with a high share of raw yarn such as China Jushi and Shandong glass fiber, the company has long focused on the glass fiber products market and is a leading enterprise in the domestic short-cut felt and wet thin felt field. As early as 2009, the company's market share of short-cut felt and wet thin felt reached 13% and 21% respectively, ranking 3rd and 2nd in the country respectively. In '23, the company's share of the domestic car roof felt market exceeded 50%. The strategic orientation of focusing on products brings differentiated competitive advantages: 1) Compared with the original yarn, the production of glass fiber products is an asset-light model, and the operating leverage of glass fiber companies with high product revenue is lower; 2) Glass fiber products have many segments and small market segments. At the same time, the company has a high market share in the field of wet thin felt and short cut felt, and the price fluctuation of these two types of products is less than that of thick yarn. At the same time, since glass fiber products are closer to the terminal and have higher added value in the industrial chain, their price per ton is often higher.
The result of the above two differentiated advantages is that the company's glass fiber and products business is leading the industry in terms of price per ton and profit, while profit fluctuations are smaller compared to companies that account for a large share of raw yarn.
Capital expenditure is accelerating, and scale and structure drive future growth. In terms of new production capacity, the company currently has a 0.6 million ton new base and the Tianma cold repair technology improvement project. After all construction is completed, production capacity is expected to increase by a net of 0.65 million tons, and the company's total production capacity is expected to be close to one million tons. According to the feasibility study report, the company plans to build 0.3, 0.1, and 0.2 million tons of joint yarn, thermoplastic short cut, and glass fiber fabric respectively in the 0.6 million ton production expansion. The direction of expansion is focused on middle and high-end products with good downstream demand and high technical barriers. At the same time, after Tianma's cooling technology reform is completed, it is expected to form 0.08 million tons of supply capacity for the NEV and wind power markets. While production capacity is greatly expanded, the product structure will also be optimized.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's 24-26 revenue is expected to be 3.115, 4.123, and 4.86 billion, respectively, +19.48%, +32.38%, and +17.88%, respectively, and net profit to mother is 0.334, 0.455, and 0.622 billion, respectively, +12.73%, +36.77%, and corresponding PE is 11.52, 8.46, and 6.18, respectively. Considering the outstanding competitive advantages of the company's glass fiber business, profit levels and The stability is leading the industry, and the scale and structure drive future growth together. It was covered for the first time, and it was given a “Highly Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Industry supply increased beyond expectations; downstream demand fell short of expectations; the company's production expansion progress was slower than the industry; expansion in high-end fields fell short of expectations; and costs rose above expectations.