Key points of investment

The company has been deeply involved in 3D printing for more than ten years, and the entire industry chain layout is growing at an accelerated pace.

As a leader in the 3D printing industry, covering the entire material, equipment and printing industry chain, the company maintained rapid growth. Revenue increased from 0.2 billion yuan to 1.2 billion yuan in 2016-2023. During this period, the CAGR reached 33%, and net profit to mother increased from 31.33 million yuan to 0.14 billion yuan in 2016-2023, and the CAGR reached 26%. Since 3D printing has advantages over traditional processes in fields such as complexity and weight reduction, and the cost of superposition scale continues to decline, the industry is still growing at an accelerated pace, and it is expected that the company's future performance will continue to grow rapidly.

3D printing penetrates downstream aerospace rapidly, the civilian scene continues to expand, and there is plenty of potential for growth.

Looking at the value of the industrial chain, upstream raw materials account for 24%, midstream equipment accounts for 45%, and downstream services account for 31%. Looking at China: According to a report by China Research Network, China's 3D printing market is expected to reach 40 billion yuan in 2023, and the CAGR can reach 27% during this period. Looking at the breakdown, equipment is expected to grow from 18 billion yuan in 2023 to 45 billion yuan in 2027, and printing services are expected to grow from 12.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 31 billion yuan in 2027. From a global perspective: According to Fortune statistics, the global 3D printing market will reach 22.4 billion US dollars in 2023. The market is expected to grow from 27.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 1502 US dollars in 2032, and the CAGR can reach 24% during the 2024-2032 period. Looking at the breakdown, equipment is expected to grow from 10.1 billion US dollars in 2023 to 67.6 billion US dollars in 2032, and printing services are expected to grow from 2023 $6.9 billion grew to $46.6 billion in 2032.

As an industry leader, the company lays out the entire industry chain and establishes industry barriers. In 2023, the company's 3D printing services account for 51%, 3D printing equipment accounts for 43%, and 3D printing raw materials account for 5%. Printing services: The company's printing service revenue increased from 0.07 billion in 2016 to 0.63 billion in 2023. The CAGR reached 38% during this period. Since military projects require long-term follow-up and a stable competitive landscape, the company has sufficient preliminary research projects, and it is expected that in the future it will be transformed into batch production orders to contribute to performance. The estimated revenue for customized 3D printing products will be 0.85 billion yuan, 1.11 billion yuan, and 1.53 billion yuan in 2024-2026. The 2023 to 2026 CAGR is approximately 34%. Printing equipment: The company's printing equipment revenue increased from 0.04 billion in 2016 to 0.53 billion in 2023. The CAGR reached 43% during this period. Since the company can cultivate customer stickiness through printing services, continue to improve equipment through printing experience, maintain technical advantages, and superposition the layout of large-format equipment, future performance is expected to continue to grow. The estimated 2024-2026 3D printing equipment revenue is 0.71 billion yuan, 0.96 billion yuan, and 1.28 billion yuan.

The 2023 to 2026 CAGR is approximately 34%.

Profit forecasting and valuation

We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 17.1, 22.6, and 3.03 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 33% and 34% respectively; the company's net profit to mother for 2024-2026 will be 2.6, 3.8, and 520 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 84%, 45% and 37%, respectively, corresponding to the current stock price of 56/38/28 times PE, respectively. If the impact of incentive fees is excluded, the PE value corresponding to the current stock price is 45/35/26 times, and a “gain” rating is given.

Risk warning

Aerospace demand falls short of expectations; 3D printing competition deteriorates; risk of rapid iteration of 3D printing technology