Global macro
Before the market opened on Monday, US stock index futures rose, with Nasdaq futures up more than 1 percent.
Deutsche Bank: Biden's withdrawal may reduce the motivation for the "Trump trade".
Deutsche Bank analysts said in a report that the so-called 'Trump trade' may decrease after the incumbent President Biden withdrew from the election. 'Trump trade' is an investment based on the assumption that Republican candidate Trump may win the US presidential election this year. Trump's election as President is believed to mean more fiscal spending and broader trade tariffs, which could lead to higher inflation and benefit many US stocks and the US dollar, while pushing up long-term US Treasury yields. The big losers in this type of trade include the Mexican peso, while the big winners are the US stocks and the US dollar.$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$They are the big winners.
According to Morgan Stanley, for the stock market, corporate earnings are more important than the US presidential election.
Morgan Stanley strategists, led by Michael Wilson, said that as the market reacts to the possibility of Trump winning the election and its potential impact on policies, "the state of the business cycle will ultimately be more important to the stock market." The strategists said they are watching for earnings revisions, which have recently slowed, but "there are still divergences at the industry level." The late-stage environment of the current cycle continues to support quality stocks, and among cyclical stocks, they are bullish on large-cap industrial stocks due to their high valuations and recent strong performance. While small-cap stocks benefit from light sentiment and positioning, their "fundamental and macro rationales for outperforming the market remain limited." The strategists believe that the relative outperformance of small-cap stocks has reached a technical resistance level.
US stocks could face a bleak autumn? Analysts: The upward trend is approaching the upper limit, and it may fall back by 12% before October.
The hot rise of US stocks may come to an abrupt end this fall. Bill Blain, Founder of Wind Shift Capital and Senior Strategist, expects US stocks to fall between 7% and 12% by October. This pullback may be triggered by a variety of factors: geopolitical tensions, worsening inflation, and unpredictable Black Swan events. Bill Blain predicts that various risks are spreading and that there may be a pullback in October this year.
The tight supply in the crude oil market will ease! Goldman Sachs warns that oil prices will fall next year.
The current tight supply in the crude oil market is not expected to last long. According to Morgan Stanley, there may be an oversupply in the crude oil market next year, and Brent crude prices will have a significant downward space from current levels. Goldman Sachs also predicts that Brent crude prices will fall back to the medium-to-high range of $70-$80 per barrel next year.
Hot news
Most of the growth tech stocks rose before the market opened, with Nvidia up more than 2%, and Apple, Google, and Tesla up more than 1%.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Apple, Google, and Tesla rose more than 1%.
Nvidia rose more than 2% before the market, and it is rumored that a new flagship AI chip will be developed for the Chinese market.
AI chip giant, as cited by Reuters' sources,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$is developing a new flagship AI chip that complies with current US export control regulations for the Chinese market.
ASML Holdings rose more than 3% before the market and is close to reaching an agreement with Taiwan Semiconductor on the next-generation EUV lithography machine.
According to **** media reports,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$visited ASML secretly in May this year to discuss the purchase of the next-generation extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography device. The visit almost finalized the procurement plan for EUV lithography machines in North America. The equipment is expected to be installed in the TSMC R&D center in the fall of this year, which will help the development of A10 technology. This technology represents a significant leap forward in semiconductor technology for the next-generation 1nm process, producing smaller, more powerful, and more efficient chips.$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ASML rose more than 3% before the market.
CEO Elon Musk said on Monday that Tesla will produce a small amount of humanoid robots next year for internal use. A few months ago, he announced plans to launch humanoid robots by the end of 2024. Musk said the company will achieve mass production of robots in 2026 and “hope” to make them available to other companies.
Musk: Tesla will produce a small number of humanoid robots for internal use next year.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$According to US research firm Anderson Economic Group CEO Patrick Anderson, the economic losses from this technical glitch event are likely to exceed 1 billion US dollars.
Microsoft technology malfunction causing global losses of over 1 billion US dollars.
Bank of America fell more than 1% before the market, and Buffett reduced its shareholding and cashed out nearly 1.5 billion US dollars, according to a public document released last Friday.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The economic losses caused by the technical failure incident are likely to exceed 1 billion US dollars.
According to Deutsche Bank analysts,
reveals that Warren Buffett's subsidiary$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$Sold about 34 million shares, cashed out $1.48 billion USD. This is also Buffett's first reduction of Bank of America shares since the third quarter of 2020. Berkshire Hathaway still holds over 999.8 million shares of Bank of America's stock, worth over $42 billion USD, making it one of the largest shareholders.$Bank of America (BAC.US)$Bank of America fell more than 1% in pre-market trading. According to Insider Gaming, in a recent earnings conference call, they announced that over 80 games are currently in development and shared their goals for the gaming business. They have experienced rapid growth in the interactive narrative game market. In addition to interactive narrative games, Netflix will also launch different types of games in the coming quarters and years to keep users engaged between show seasons.
In a recent analysis report, Wells Fargo & Co pointed out that the second quarter performance reports released by large American banks this month indicate that the industry is at a turning point. Judging from the revenue growth, operating leverage and EPS growth, they are all shifting from negative growth to positive growth. Analysts are bullish on some bank stocks, with preferred stocks including
Netflix reveals that over 80 games are currently in development.
According to Insider Gaming,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$In a recent earnings conference call, they announced that over 80 games are currently in development and shared their goals for the gaming business. They have experienced rapid growth in the interactive narrative game market. In addition to interactive narrative games, Netflix will also launch different types of games in the coming quarters and years to keep users engaged between show seasons.
Large banks are ushering in a turning point after years of decline! Futu analysts are bullish on Citigroup, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley.
In a recent analysis report, Wells Fargo & Co pointed out that the second quarter performance reports released by large American banks this month indicate that the industry is at a turning point. Judging from the revenue growth, operating leverage and EPS growth, they are all shifting from negative growth to positive growth. Analysts are bullish on some bank stocks, with preferred stocks including$Citigroup (C.US)$,$Bank of America (BAC.US)$And.$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$followed by$U.S. Bancorp (USB.US)$,$PNC Financial Services (PNC.US)$And.$State Street (STT.US)$.
After being disclosed by Nvidia, Serve Robotics continued to rise more than 49% before the market opened. The stock price soared nearly 240% last Friday, reaching a new high after the company's reverse takeover was listed in mid-April. Nvidia, a shareholder of the company, converted the issuer's convertible bonds into 1.05 million common shares of the issuer at a price of $2.42 on April 22 this year. After this capital increase, Nvidia's equity stake in Serve Robotics rose to exactly 10%, triggering the U.S. securities law's announcement mechanism.
Siasun Robot & Automation, an American robotics company, rose more than 49% before the market opened. The stock price soared nearly 240% last Friday, reaching a new high after the company's reverse takeover was listed in mid-April.$Serve Robotics (SERV.US)$After being disclosed by Nvidia, Serve Robotics continued to rise more than 49% before the market opened. The stock price soared nearly 240% last Friday, reaching a new high after the company's reverse takeover was listed in mid-April. Nvidia, a shareholder of the company, converted the issuer's convertible bonds into 1.05 million common shares of the issuer at a price of $2.42 on April 22 this year. After this capital increase, Nvidia's equity stake in Serve Robotics rose to exactly 10%, triggering the U.S. securities law's announcement mechanism.
Boeing COO: Expecting to increase the production of 737 aircraft in the second half of the year.
$Boeing (BA.US)$Chief Operating Officer Stephanie Pop said the company expects to increase production of its 737 jet in the second half of this year. Pop added that the company is driving 'change' based on feedback from customers, regulators, and employees.
Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.
China concept stocks are mostly up before the market opens, with Alibaba, JD, and Bilibili up more than 2%, and Ideal and NIO up nearly 3%.
Xpeng Motors rose more than 3% before the market opened, signing a technology cooperation agreement with Volkswagen.
$XPeng (XPEV.US)$Announced a strategic cooperation agreement for the development of electronic and electrical architecture technology with Volkswagen Group. The first model equipped with jointly developed electronic and electrical architecture is expected to be put into production in about 24 months. Under this cooperative development agreement, Xpeng Motors and Volkswagen Group will actively explore opportunities for further cooperation to expand the application scope of jointly developed electronic and electrical architecture. Both parties have reached a consensus on promoting the cooperation of electronic and electrical architecture technology and hope to further strengthen the strategic partnership.
Ctrip rose more than 2% before the market opened, with Citigroup stating that its stock price has been oversold and reiterating a 'buy' rating.
Citigroup issued a report stating that due to weak performance in the domestic hotel industry at the beginning of the summer vacation, the stock price has fallen 10% in the past week, but it believes that this is an excessive adjustment. The bank believes that there is no significant downside risk to the third-quarter revenue forecast for Ctrip, and still expects the market to have upside potential for Ctrip's full-year profit forecast, which may provide support to the stock price. The bank sees the growth of fourth-quarter revenue or faster, and the rating is expected to be revaluated, reiterating a 'buy' rating and a target price of $66.$Trip.com (TCOM.US)$The stock price has dropped by 10% in the past week, but it is believed that this is an excessive adjustment. The bank stated that there is no significant downside risk to Ctrip's Q3 revenue forecast in the market, and still expects the market to have upward potential for Ctrip's full-year profit forecast, which may support the stock price. The bank sees the possibility of a renewed acceleration in Q4 revenue growth, and expects to receive a re-evaluation of its 'buy' rating with a target price of $66.
Miniso rose more than 4% before the market opened, with Bank of America raising its target price to $30.2 USD.
Bank of America Securities released a report predicting that in the second quarter, the company's revenue will increase by 23% YoY, and the core non-GAAP net profit after tax will increase by more than 20%, of which the growth rate in the Chinese and overseas markets is expected to be 17% and 35%, respectively. The bank maintains a 'buy' rating on Miniso and raises its target price to $30.2 USD.$MINISO (MNSO.US)$The second quarter performance was solid, with revenue expected to grow by more than 23% annually, and the core non-IFRS post-tax net profit expected to grow by more than 20% annually, with an increase of 17% and 35% in China and overseas markets, respectively. The bank maintains a 'buy' rating on Miniso and has raised its target price to $30.2.
Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.
Editor/Emily