Over the next two weeks, the financial reports of major tech giants, the 'Mag 7' with high weights in the S&P 500 index, will be released one after another, with six of them reporting results. The first to release their performance will be on post-market trading this Tuesday; and the rest will follow next week. In addition, as Trump's trade swept the market, the concept stocks of cryptocurrencies, such as those related to cryptos, will also face the Q2 exam next week. Statistically analyzing the implied volatility of the stock options above reveals that the options of Tesla and Google are currently slightly undervalued. Goldman Sachs had recommended buying straddle options before the implied volatility (IV) rose significantly before the earnings reports. The specific execution strategy is to buy call options and put options with the same expiration date and exercise price separately. As the option price is positively correlated with IV, raising the volatility near the earnings report day is expected to realize option arbitrage. Implied volatility of options is the expected price change of a certain stock on the earnings report day, which market traders can refer to when speculating on the option value. In addition, reviewing the historical stock price performance on the earnings report day can also be used to determine its specific trading pattern or price fluctuations. When the option is overvalued, the rapid decrease of implied volatility (IV crush) after the financial report is released is beneficial to option sellers. After the financial report is released, the uncertainty of the stock price decreases, and people's enthusiasm for purchasing options disappears. IV will fall from its high point overnight, resulting in a sharp drop in option prices. If investors adopt a seller's strategy to sell options, they can buy back the options to close their position at a lower price after the IV crush, in order to gain profits from the time value of the option. Tesla's current implied change is ±9.3%, indicating that the options market is betting on a single-day price change of Tesla's stock on earnings day of up to 9.3%. Compared with the past four quarters, the stock price change after earnings report is about 11%; the current option value is slightly undervalued. In the past 12 earnings days of Tesla, its probability of going up is 58%, and its volatility often exceeds market estimates. Among them, the strategy of using long straddle options has the highest winning rate, about 67%; In addition, in the recent four earnings days, the probability of Tesla dropping is relatively high, with corresponding figures of -9.7%, -9.3%, -12.1%, and +12.1%. 1 set of calculations + 2 strategies, improve the probability of profit! Can Tesla's upward momentum continue? How can one profit from selling option strategies? Apple's current implied change is ±5.1%. Compared with the past four quarters, its stock price change after earnings report is about 3%. It is expected to be more volatile this quarter. Looking back at the past 12 earnings days of Apple, its probability of going up is 58%, but its volatility is often lower than market estimates. Its biggest increase and decrease in volatility were +7.6% and -4.8%, respectively. In the recent four quarters, Apple reported -4.8%, +0.6%, -0.5%, and +6%. The skewness of the volatility indicates that the current option market is slightly bearish on Apple. Meta's current implied change is ±10.3%. Compared with the past 12 earnings days of Meta, its probability of going up is slightly lower, at 42%, and its volatility often exceeds market estimates. Among them, the strategy of using long straddle options has the highest winning rate, approximately 58%; In the recent four earnings days, Meta's volatility has been on the rise, with corresponding close prices of +4.4%, -3.7%, +20.3%, and -10.6%. The skewness of the volatility indicates that the current option market is slightly bullish on Meta. Marathon Digital's current implied change is ±20%. Compared with the past four quarters, its stock price change after earnings report is about 9.6%, indicating that the stock price volatility after this earnings report will rise significantly. Looking at the past 12 earnings days of Marathon Digital, its probability of falling is very high, at 75%, the largest increase and decrease were +8% and -16.5%, respectively. However, the volatility of stock prices on earnings report days usually does not meet market expectations. The skewness of the volatility indicates that the current option market is slightly bullish on Marathon Digital.$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The weather is good today The weather is good today.$Apple (AAPL.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$,$Meta Platforms (META.US)$and $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.
In addition, as Trump's trade swept the market, the concept stocks of cryptocurrencies, such as those related to cryptos, will also face the Q2 exam next week.$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$,$Coinbase (COIN.US)$In addition, stocks related to cryptos, and more, will also face the Q2 exam next week.
Statistically analyzing the implied volatility of the stock options above reveals that the options of Tesla and Google are currently slightly undervalued. Goldman Sachs had recommended buying straddle options before the implied volatility (IV) rose significantly before the earnings reports. The specific execution strategy is to buy call options and put options with the same expiration date and exercise price separately. As the option price is positively correlated with IV, raising the volatility near the earnings report day is expected to realize option arbitrage. Implied volatility of options is the expected price change of a certain stock on the earnings report day, which market traders can refer to when speculating on the option value. In addition, reviewing the historical stock price performance on the earnings report day can also be used to determine its specific trading pattern or price fluctuations. When the option is overvalued, the rapid decrease of implied volatility (IV crush) after the financial report is released is beneficial to option sellers. After the financial report is released, the uncertainty of the stock price decreases, and people's enthusiasm for purchasing options disappears. IV will fall from its high point overnight, resulting in a sharp drop in option prices. If investors adopt a seller's strategy to sell options, they can buy back the options to close their position at a lower price after the IV crush, in order to gain profits from the time value of the option.
Implied volatility of options is the expected price change of a certain stock on the earnings report day, which market traders can refer to when speculating on the option value. In addition, reviewing the historical stock price performance on the earnings report day can also be used to determine its specific trading pattern or price fluctuations.
When the option is overvalued, the rapid decrease of implied volatility (IV crush) after the financial report is released is beneficial to option sellers.
After the financial report is released, the uncertainty of the stock price decreases, and people's enthusiasm for purchasing options disappears. IV will fall from its high point overnight, resulting in a sharp drop in option prices. If investors adopt a seller's strategy to sell options, they can buy back the options to close their position at a lower price after the IV crush, in order to gain profits from the time value of the option.
Tesla's current implied change is ±9.3%, indicating that the options market is betting on a single-day price change of Tesla's stock on earnings day of up to 9.3%. Compared with the past four quarters, the stock price change after earnings report is about 11%; the current option value is slightly undervalued.
In the past 12 earnings days of Tesla, its probability of going up is 58%, and its volatility often exceeds market estimates. Among them, the strategy of using long straddle options has the highest winning rate, about 67%; In addition, in the recent four earnings days, the probability of Tesla dropping is relatively high, with corresponding figures of -9.7%, -9.3%, -12.1%, and +12.1%.
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Apple's current implied change is ±5.1%. Compared with the past four quarters, its stock price change after earnings report is about 3%. It is expected to be more volatile this quarter.
Looking back at the past 12 earnings days of Apple, its probability of going up is 58%, but its volatility is often lower than market estimates. Its biggest increase and decrease in volatility were +7.6% and -4.8%, respectively. In the recent four quarters, Apple reported -4.8%, +0.6%, -0.5%, and +6%. The skewness of the volatility indicates that the current option market is slightly bearish on Apple.
Meta's current implied change is ±10.3%. Compared with the past 12 earnings days of Meta, its probability of going up is slightly lower, at 42%, and its volatility often exceeds market estimates. Among them, the strategy of using long straddle options has the highest winning rate, approximately 58%; In the recent four earnings days, Meta's volatility has been on the rise, with corresponding close prices of +4.4%, -3.7%, +20.3%, and -10.6%. The skewness of the volatility indicates that the current option market is slightly bullish on Meta.
The skewness of the volatility indicates that the current option market is slightly bullish on Meta.
4.$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$
Marathon Digital's current implied change is ±20%. Compared with the past four quarters, its stock price change after earnings report is about 9.6%, indicating that the stock price volatility after this earnings report will rise significantly. Looking at the past 12 earnings days of Marathon Digital, its probability of falling is very high, at 75%, the largest increase and decrease were +8% and -16.5%, respectively. However, the volatility of stock prices on earnings report days usually does not meet market expectations. The skewness of the volatility indicates that the current option market is slightly bullish on Marathon Digital.
Based on the performance of Marathon Digital in the past 12 earnings days, there is a very high probability of gains and losses, at 75%, with the maximum increase of +8% and the maximum decrease of -16.5%. However, the stock price volatility on earnings day is usually less than expected. Skewness of volatility indicates that the current options market is slightly bullish on Marathon Digital.
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Disclaimer
This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments. The loss risk of buying and selling options could be substantial. In certain circumstances, you may suffer losses exceeding the amount initially deposited as margin. Even if you set up backup instructions, such as stop loss or limit instructions, losses may not be avoided. Market conditions may render such orders impossible to execute. You may be required to deposit additional margin in a very short period of time. If the required amount cannot be provided within the specified time, your open contracts may be closed. However, you are still responsible for any shortfalls in your account arising from this. Therefore, before buying or selling, you should research and understand the options, and consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you buy or sell options, you should be familiar with the exercise of options and the procedures at expiration, as well as your rights and obligations when exercising an option or at expiration.
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