招银国际预计美东1H24新车毛利率将降至-3.7%(保时捷：-4%，宝马：-7%，雷克萨斯：-2%)，为历史最低。此外，考虑到可转债的回购，招银国际预计上半年利息费用有所下降，招银国际估算上半年因往香港分派现金导致的预提税约为3,500万元。综上，招银国际预计美东1H24收入或同比下降15%，毛利润同比下降11%，在没有重大减值的情况下，招银国际预计美东上半年净利润将同比增长9%至4,300万元。Zhao Jin International expects the new car gross margin in the first half of 2024 on the East Coast to drop to -3.7% (Porsche: -4%, BMW: -7%, Lexus: -2%), the lowest in history.
According to financial news app JinTongCaiJing, Zhao Jin International published a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating for Meidong Auto (01268) on the East Coast, with a target price lowered to HKD 3.0. The bank predicts that the revenue on the East Coast in the first half of 2024 will decrease by 15% year-on-year and the gross profit will decrease by 11% year-on-year. Without major write-downs, the net income on the East Coast in the first half of the year is expected to increase by 9% year-on-year to 43 million yuan.
1H24 profit forecast: Zhao Jin International predicts that the sales volume of new cars on the East Coast in the first half of 2024 will decrease by 8% year-on-year to 29,200 units (Porsche: 4,500 units, BMW: 11,500 units). Although Porsche's sales volume in the Chinese market in 1H24 may decrease by 39% year-on-year, Zhao Jin International expects the East Coast's share in the Porsche China market to expand from 16% in 2H23 to 17% in 1H24. Zhao Jin International predicts that the average selling price of new cars on the East Coast in the first half of 2024 will decrease by 13% year-on-year, mainly due to increased terminal discounts. Despite the possible reduction in after-sales service frequency in the first half of the year, Zhao Jin International predicts that the after-sales service revenue on the East Coast will increase by 12% year-on-year, mainly due to Porsche's higher proportion in after-sales revenue and the increase in commissions from automobile finance (Meidong Auto records finance commissions as after-sales revenue, while other dealers record them as other revenue).
Zhao Jin International expects the new car gross margin in the first half of 2024 on the East Coast to drop to -3.7% (Porsche: -4%, BMW: -7%, Lexus: -2%), the lowest in history. In addition, considering the repurchase of convertible bonds, Zhao Jin International estimates that interest expenses in the first half of the year will decrease, and Zhao Jin International estimates that the provision for income tax payable due to the distribution of cash to Hong Kong in the first half of the year is about 35 million yuan. Therefore, Zhao Jin International predicts that the revenue on the East Coast in the first half of 2024 will decrease by 15% year-on-year, and the gross profit will decrease by 11% year-on-year. Without major write-downs, Zhao Jin International predicts that the net income on the East Coast in the first half of the year will increase by 9% year-on-year to 43 million yuan.
Prospects for 2H24 and 2025: Although the visibility of the industry and the company is currently low, Zhao Jin International predicts that 2H24 and 2025 will be slightly better than 1H24. Zhao Jin International predicts that Porsche's sales volume in 2H24 may continue to be weak, but due to the lower sales volume target, the new car gross margin of dealers may slightly recover. Considering that foreign-funded auto companies may adjust their sales volume targets, Zhao Jin International predicts that the new car gross margin on the East Coast is expected to increase by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to -2% in 2025. In addition, after the elimination of the impact of convertible bond interest expenses and provision for income tax payable, Zhao Jin International predicts that the company's related expenses will decrease by RMB 0.13 billion year-on-year in 2025. Therefore, Zhao Jin International predicts that the net profit in 2025 is expected to increase by more than 100% year-on-year to RMB 0.36 billion.
