Due to the continued decline in deliveries,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Q2 performance is not ideal and may be a consensus, and the market will focus on non-autos business.

Tesla will report its Q2 2024 results on Tuesday, July 23, after the post-market trading on the US stock market.

Considering Tesla's sales growth is slowing down, the market is currently expecting that its performance this year "won't be very ideal," but the better-than-expected Q2 delivery data and strong energy deployment data may boost Tesla's long-term growth prospects.

According to analysts surveyed by FactSet, Tesla's Q2 sales were $24.3 billion, down 2.4% year-on-year, with adjusted earnings per share of 61 cents, down 33% year-on-year.

Earlier data showed that Tesla's Q2 deliveries of 0.444 million were better than expected, maintaining its position as the world's top electric car seller. The delay in the release of robot taxis caused Tesla's stock price to plummet.

Since the beginning of this year, Tesla's stock price has fallen by a cumulative 3.71%.

Focus on non-auto business.

Despite the challenges of declining delivery and delayed Robotaxi release, investors still value Tesla's growth opportunities in areas such as Robotaxi and FSD technology.

1) The latest release date of Robotaxi.

Considering that Tesla recently announced the postponement of the Robotaxi release, it is expected that Musk will focus on the latest release date of Robotaxi during this earnings call.

Woodstock Investments, which is owned by Cathy Woods, recently mentioned that most of Tesla's commercial value comes from Robotaxi, and believes that the latter will change Tesla's business model: from one-time revenue from current electric vehicle sales to recurring revenue from RoboTaxi.

2) The utilization rate of FSD technology.

Some analysts point out that Tesla's valuation is almost dependent on the success of its FSD technology. If the technology is lost, the company's stock price will drop by at least $100. For this financial report, the market will focus on the adoption level of FSD.

Some believe that the reason why the market is interested in Tesla's progress in AI is because the company has a huge amount of driving data and has significant advantages in AI training, and that the FSD technology with the support of AI "may disrupt the entire autonomous driving market."

The current risk facing this business is that as Trump's chances of winning increase, he may reintroduce anti-electric car legislation after taking office.

3) Energy business and Optimus timetable.

In other AI business areas, the market may focus on the Optimus commercial plan timetable.

In addition, in the second quarter, Tesla set a record for the highest single-quarter deployment of battery energy storage with 9.4 GWh. At present, Tesla Energy has a higher profit margin than its solar energy business and automotive business, and shareholders are likely to expect to hear more details about the energy project.

After the Q2 delivery announcement, Morgan Stanley increased the proportion of the energy business in its Tesla rating and raised its valuation of the business by 40%. Citigroup, Mizuho, and other investment banks also raised Tesla's target price and stated that future growth mainly depends on the execution ability of AI projects, especially Robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robots.

Still confident in the long-term prospects of the automotive business.

Regarding the current core automotive business, the market is particularly concerned about the latest news about the Model 2 budget model during this earnings call.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy and his team believe that Tesla's investment theme has shifted from growth driven by its auto business to growth driven by its AI business, including autonomous driving and Robotaxi, but overall plans still require details:

"While we appreciate the disruptive potential of these businesses, we believe they introduce uncertainty into Tesla's road ahead, making the company's success dependent on binary bets."

Levy said that Tesla is in a significant leading position in both the global electric vehicle transformation and "software-defined vehicles (SDVs)" fields, and its positive sales outlook is expected to keep it in a favorable position for the long term.

Some analysts believe that the entire EV market has a huge size, and penetration growth is just beginning. They remain confident in Tesla's leading advantage in electric vehicles and autonomous driving, and attribute its decline in deliveries in the first two quarters to other brands seizing market share with new EV models.

Editor/ping