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Sudden change in the election! Biden withdrew, Trump vs. Harris, how will the market bet?

Futu News · Jul 22 19:47

正值美股财报周拉开帷幕，拜登突发宣布退出连任竞选，美国大选格局骤变，金融市场再添新的不确定性。

据央视新闻周一报道，现任总统拜登宣布退出2024年总统大选，并推荐副总统Kamala Harris（卡玛拉·黛维·哈里斯）作为民主党候选人，与特朗普展开角逐。

这一消息出街后，Polymarket上预测特朗普赢得2024年美国总统选举的概率下降至64%，Kamala Harris 赢得2024年美国总统选举的概率上升至29%。

因此，本周伊始，投资者又多了个新问题，即拜登的这一决定对特朗普的胜算有什么影响？是会增加还是减少？是否还要坚持“特朗普交易”？

“特朗普交易”将何去何从？

从今日金融市场的反应来看，作为“特朗普交易”的主线之一——$比特币 (BTC.CC)$价格在拜登宣布退选后先是下挫，盘中最低价到达65833美元，随后一路上涨，最高触及68200美元上方。

有分析师指出，比特币上涨代表市场认为，在接下来可能的特朗普 vs Kamala Harris中，特朗普仍将是最后的获胜者。

值得注意的是，比特币在特朗普遇刺之后，即自7月14日以来已累计升超13%，$以太坊 (ETH.CC)$则累计升超8%。

另外，美股加密货币概念股在近期市场一片“哀鸿遍野”之际，也是在悄悄反弹，其中，持币股$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$自7月14日以来累计升幅高达27%，挖矿股$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$、$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$、$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$分别涨超22%、19%、12%，加密货币交易所巨头$Coinbase (COIN.US)$累升超18%。

此外，港股加密$货币ETF (159001.SZ)$也对此做出了反应，$嘉实比特币 (03439.HK)$、$博时比特币 (03008.HK)$、$FA南方比特币 (03066.HK)$均涨超5%，$华夏比特币 (03042.HK)$涨近5%，$嘉实以太币 (03179.HK)$、$博时以太币 (03009.HK)$、$FA南方以太币 (03068.HK)$涨超2%，$华夏以太币 (03046.HK)$涨超1%。

另外，作为特朗普概念股$特朗普媒体科技集团 (DJT.US)$今日美股盘前也是小幅上涨，现涨超4%。

华尔街怎么看？

“特朗普交易”的支持者认为，市场对拜登退出早有预期并进行计价，公开宣布的影响不大，预计“特朗普交易”会持续。

B. Riley Wealth的首席市场策略师Art Hogan表示，在目前围绕特朗普的交易中，最引人注目的现象是比特币和其他加密货币的价格上涨，这反映出市场认为特朗普对这些资产类别持有更积极的态度。

IG Australia Pty. Ltd.市场分析师Tony Sycamore表示，比特币价格上涨表明市场认为，哈里斯领导的民主党无法在大选中打败特朗普领导的$共和 (6570.JP)$党。在一位支持加密货币发展的总统（即特朗普）的领导下，比特币正迎来新的曙光。

此外，在本月27日，特朗普将在一场大型比特币会议上发表讲话，这也进一步强化了他的加密世界推动者身份。此外，特朗普还预计在比特币大会后举办一场筹款活动。

BTC Markets首席执行官Caroline Bowler表示，目前市场并不清楚哈里斯的政策倾向，而加密货币这一话题可能会成为两党候选人成败的关键，希望可以在接下来几周内听到更多哈里斯对于加密货币的意见。

但也有人认为哈里斯的胜选不大，加密市场只需要期待特朗普的获胜即可。加密投资公司Satori Research的首席执行官Teong Hng指出，场外期权市场的活动表明比特币可能很快重回历史高位。

Pepperstone Group的研究主管Chris Weston在一份报告中写道：，此外，近期比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）资金流入背后的潜在势头表明，我们可能会看到比特币再次向70000美元靠拢。

不过，也有市场观点认为，“特朗普交易”会退潮。

BMO财富管理首席投资官Yung-Yu Ma预计，特朗普的交易可能会暂时停顿，直到民主党候选人的身份更加明确。他警告称，这一事件给市场带来了更多的政治不确定性，可能会导致短期内的波动。

Miller Tabak + Co.的首席市场策略师Matt Maley：

比特币、能源等特朗普交易将开始平仓，太阳能股票或电动汽车等一些受到冲击的交易也会反弹。但现在仍有很多不确定性，市场不喜欢这样。从现在到劳动节，再到9月份，我们将看到波动率大幅飙升。

市场聚光灯给到哈里斯？

Roundhill Financial首席执行官Dave Mazza表示，投资者应该预料到波动性会大幅上升。

如果副总统Kamala Harris能够迅速动员起来，给特朗普带来实质性的冲击，那么我们可以预期，波动性将持续下去。然而，如果特朗普继续在民意调查中领先，投资者认为他的胜利是不可避免的，那么“特朗普交易”将接管，波动性将下降。
因而，被寄予厚望的哈里斯能否给特朗普带来实质性的冲击，是当下市场最关注的焦点。

据民生证券研报，拜登退出选举后，民主党在国会选举中的形势有望好转，有可能从“两院皆输”，变成“赢得一院”。

复盘历史，参众两院归属，各类资产将如何演绎？民生证券对此作了统计：

参、众议院归属同一党派时：各类资产普涨，美股、美债、黄金、原油、铜等资产在任期内的平均回报均为正收益：共和党拿下两院的场景下，美股平均回报最高，其次是原油、铜；民主党拿下两院的场景下，原油平均回报最高，其次是黄金、铜。
美股各行业回报差异较大，共和党拿下两院的场景下，信息技术、金融、医疗保健表现较好，房地产、材料、日常消费表现较差；民主党拿下两院的场景下，房地产、能源、材料表现较好，通讯服务、公用事业、医疗保健表现较差。
参、众议院归属不同党派时：美股、美债、黄金资产在任期内的平均回报均为正收益，原油、铜的表现不佳，基本都是负收益。
美股行业表现一致性较强，无论是共和党拿下参议院还是众议院，信息技术、可选消费表现均较好，能源、公用事业表现较差。

编辑/Somer

As the US stock earnings season gets underway, Biden's sudden announcement to withdraw from reelection campaign has drastically changed the US presidential election landscape, adding new uncertainties to the financial market.

According to CCTV News on Monday, current President Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election and recommended Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate to compete with Trump.

After this news came out, the probability of Polymarket predicting Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election dropped to 64%, while the probability of Kamala Harris winning the 2024 US presidential election increased to 29%.

Therefore, at the beginning of this week, investors have a new question, whether Biden's decision will have any impact on Trump's chances of winning? Will it increase or decrease? Should we still stick to "Trump Trading"?

"Trump Trading" will go where?

From today's financial market reaction, as one of the main lines of the "Trump trade"-$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$the price first fell after Biden announced his withdrawal, with the lowest price reaching $65,833 during the day, and then rising all the way to above $68,200.

Some analysts pointed out that the rise in Bitcoin represents the market's belief that Trump will still be the ultimate winner in the possible Trump vs Kamala Harris,.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin has risen over 13% since Trump was shot on July 14,$Ethereum (ETH.CC)$and it has risen more than 8% overall.

In addition, the concept of American cryptocurrency stocks in the recent market, although many were in a slump, have quietly rebounded, among which, holding stocks rose as much as 27% since July 14, mining stocks rose more than 22%, 19%, 12% respectively, and the major cryptocurrency exchanges rose more than 18%.$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$In addition, the concept of American cryptocurrency stocks in the recent market, although many were in a slump, have quietly rebounded, among which, holding stocks rose as much as 27% since July 14, mining stocks rose more than 22%, 19%, 12% respectively, and the major cryptocurrency exchanges rose more than 18%.$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$,$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$,$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$In addition, the concept of American cryptocurrency stocks in the recent market, although many were in a slump, have quietly rebounded, among which, holding stocks rose as much as 27% since July 14, mining stocks rose more than 22%, 19%, 12% respectively, and the major cryptocurrency exchanges rose more than 18%.$Coinbase (COIN.US)$In addition, the concept of American cryptocurrency stocks in the recent market, although many were in a slump, have quietly rebounded, among which, holding stocks rose as much as 27% since July 14, mining stocks rose more than 22%, 19%, 12% respectively, and the major cryptocurrency exchanges rose more than 18%.

In addition, Hong Kong stocks cryptocurrency$E Fund Deposit Income Money Market Fund-A (159001.SZ)$also responded to this.$Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF (03439.HK)$,$Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF (03008.HK)$,$CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF (03066.HK)$In addition, the Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETF has also reacted to this, with an increase of more than 5%.$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$rose nearly 5%,$Harvest Ether Spot ETF (03179.HK)$,$Bosera HashKey Ether ETF (03009.HK)$,$CSOP Ether Futures ETF (03068.HK)$up more than 2%,$ChinaAMC Ether ETF (03046.HK)$rose more than 1%.

In addition, as a Trump concept stock, pre-market trading in US stocks also rose slightly today, now up more than 4%.$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$"Trump Trading" supporters believe that the market has long anticipated and priced Biden's withdrawal, and the impact of the official announcement is not significant, so it is expected that "Trump Trading" will continue.

How does Wall Street look at this?

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said that the most noticeable phenomenon in the trading around Trump now is the rise in the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which reflects the market's belief that Trump has a more positive attitude towards these asset classes.

In addition, on the 27th of this month, Trump will speak at a major Bitcoin conference, which further reinforces his identity as a promoter of the crypto world. In addition, Trump is expected to hold a fundraising event after the Bitcoin conference.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia Pty. Ltd., said that the rise in the price of Bitcoin shows that the market believes that the Democratic Party led by Harris cannot defeat the Trump-led$Kyowa (6570.JP)$party in the election. Under the leadership of a president who supports the development of cryptocurrencies (Trump), Bitcoin is ushering in a new dawn.

Chris Weston, research director of Pepperstone Group, wrote in a report that the recent potential behind the inflow into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) suggests that we may see Bitcoin again approach $70,000.

Caroline Bowler, CEO of BTC Markets, said that the market is currently unclear about Harris's policy stance, and that the topic of cryptocurrencies may become key to the success or failure of the two candidates, and that she hopes to hear more of Harris's views on cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks.

However, some believe that Harris's victory is unlikely, and that the cryptocurrency market only needs to expect Trump to win. Teong Hng, CEO of cryptocurrency investment company Satori Research, said that the activity in the off-exchange options market suggests that Bitcoin could soon return to its historical high.

However, some market views believe that "Trump Trading" will ebb.

However, there is also a market view that the 'Trump trade' will ebb away.

Yung-Yu Ma, Chief Investment Officer at BMO Wealth Management, expects Trump's trading to stall temporarily until the identity of the Democratic candidate becomes clearer. He warned that this event has brought more political uncertainty to the market, which may cause short-term volatility.

Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.:

Trump's trades on bitcoin and energy will begin to close, and some impacted trades such as solar energy stocks or electric cars will rebound. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty, and the market does not like this. From now until Labor Day and September, we will see a sharp rise in volatility.

Is the market spotlight on Harris?

Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Financial, said that investors should expect a significant increase in volatility.

If Vice President Kamala Harris can quickly mobilize and provide a substantial blow to Trump, then we can expect the volatility to continue. However, if Trump continues to lead in the polls and investors believe his victory is inevitable, then the 'Trump trade' will take over, and volatility will decrease.
Therefore, whether Harris, who is expected to perform well, can provide Trump with substantial impact is the focal point of the current market.

According to Minsheng Securities' research report, after Biden withdrew from the election, the situation of the Democratic Party in congressional elections is expected to improve, possibly changing from 'losing both houses' to 'winning one house.'

Looking back at history, how will various assets perform with the control of both houses of Congress? Minsheng Securities has compiled some statistics on this:

When both houses of Congress belong to the same party: various assets generally rise, and the average returns of assets such as US stocks, US bonds, gold, crude oil, and copper are positive during the term. In the scenario where the Republicans win both houses, the average return of US stocks is the highest, followed by crude oil and copper. In the scenario where the Democrats win both houses, the average return of crude oil is the highest, followed by gold and copper.
US stocks have significant differences in returns across different industries. In the scenario where the Republicans control both houses, the information technology, finance, and medical care industries perform well, while the real estate, materials, and daily consumer industries perform poorly. In the scenario where the Democrats control both houses, the real estate, energy, and materials industries perform well, while the communication services, utilities, and medical care industries perform poorly.
When both houses of Congress belong to different parties: the average returns on assets such as US stocks, US bonds, and gold are positive during the term, and crude oil and copper perform poorly, both of which are negative.
The performance of US stock industries is relatively consistent, and both information technology and optional consumer industries perform well regardless of whether the Republicans win the Senate or the House of Representatives, while the energy and utility industries perform poorly.

Editor/Somer

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