Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

After Morgan Stanley strategists advised investors to profit from the AI fever, Asian tech stocks are expected to see their most severe sell-off since the early days of the pandemic.

Last week, investors began to worry about the sustainability of the hot AI trading and the possibility of the US tightening restrictions. Bloomberg's Asia-Pacific semiconductor index fell 3%, marking the largest four-day decline since March 2020.

Morgan Stanley is inclined to turn to essential consumer goods before the Fed's first interest rate cut. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut rates in September. The company lowered its rating on Asian and emerging market tech stocks to equal weight while removing key AI chip stocks from the watchlist.$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Morgan Stanley removed other key AI chip stocks from its important recommended list besides Taiwan Semiconductor, including South Korean memory manufacturer SK Hynix and chip equipment manufacturer.

Strategists led by Jonathan Garner wrote in a report, "It's time to exit now," tech stocks look overbought and expensive. "We note that historically, the change in leadership in Asian markets has occurred prior to the first Fed rate cut."

This is the first time since Morgan Stanley upgraded tech stock ratings to shareholdings in October 2022 that tech stock ratings have been downgraded. Strategists said that compared to expectations that essential consumer goods will be less stringent by 2026, they have "typical defensive characteristics" during global economic slowdowns. This is the first time in at least five years that the bank has upgraded essential consumer goods stock ratings to "shareholding".

Just last week,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The led global AI stock frenzy shook, and investors reassessed the potential for further gains as the Fed policy shift and the US presidential election loomed. This resulted in rotation of market laggards including consumer and small-cap stocks.

In addition to Taiwan Semiconductor, other stocks that Morgan Stanley removed from its important recommended list include South Korean memory manufacturer SK Hynix and chip equipment manufacturer. The three stocks all fell by more than 2% on Monday.$Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$This does not mean that the bank has completely given up tech stocks. Morgan Stanley strategists said that although chip stocks look particularly overheated, the upcoming AI smart phone cycle is a key point worth watching, and they have included Samsung Electronics and iPhone assembler Hon Hai Precision in their watchlist.

Analysts, including Shawn Kim and Charlie Chan, wrote in another report, "We're not calling for the 'end of the cycle' - but as everyone focuses on shortages and talks about new AI paradigms, it's important not to ignore the normal cyclicality of the semiconductor market."

Editor / jayden