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大行评级|高盛:料香港全年零售租金将跌5% 偏好九龙仓置业及长和等

Bank Rating | Goldman Sachs: Expects Hong Kong's annual retail rents to fall by 5%, favors Wharf Reic and CKH Holdings.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jul 22 14:29

On July 22, Guolianhui reported that after the Hong Kong SAR cancelled the spicy measures in the property market and coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts at the beginning of the year, Hong Kong's comprehensive enterprise shares covered by the bank has performed well briefly from the Q2 of last year's cumulative decline of 20% to 30% to May of this year. However, since mid-May, data has not shown much improvement, with high office vacancy rates, deterioration in some cases, weak retail sales and bank loan growth, coupled with delayed rate cut expectations, causing most of the stock's gains to be returned, with stock prices falling by 10% to 20% since the beginning of the year, except for Swire Pacific A (due to continued share buybacks), CKH Holdings and CKI Holdings (CKI is planning a secondary listing in the United Kingdom, and expecting strong recovery in profits from Cheung Kong's ports and European telecom business), and Henderson Land (benefiting from the conversion of agricultural land). The bank has adjusted its annual industry outlook, with retail rents expected to fall by 5% (previously expected to rise by 3%), mainly due to the greater-than-expected impact of Hong Kong locals outbound tourism and mainland tourists diverting to Japan or South Korea; and a put for an office rental rate drop of 7% (previously expected to drop by 3%), as weak demand from the financial industry and insufficient recruitment by the government or public institutions to make up for the rise in vacancy rates. The bank continues to favor companies with high visibility of rebounding profitability from low base, such as Wharf REIC and CKH Holdings; companies with sustainable dividends, such as the Swire Group and MTR; and SHK PPT, which is more directly benefiting from the property market's loose measures.

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