首次覆盖，给 予增持评级。我们预计公司2024-2026 年EPS 分别为0.67/0.99/1.31 元，参考可比公司2024 年平均PE 22.73x，考虑公司在MIM 领域客户资源优质，折叠机市场增长迅速，给予公司2024 年25xPE，给予目标价 16.75 元，增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The company is a leading domestic powder metallurgy enterprise. It has now formed three major business segments: P&S, SMC, and MIM, and is expected to usher in rapid development along with the volume of folding machines.
Key points of investment:
Covered for the first time, an increase in holdings rating is given. We expect the company's 2024-2026 EPS to be 0.67/0.99/1.31 yuan, respectively. Referring to the company's 2024 average PE 22.73x, considering the company's high-quality customer resources in the MIM field and the rapid growth in the folding machine market, we will give the company 25xPE in 2024, a target price of 16.75 yuan, and increase the holding rating.
The folding machine industry is gradually maturing, and major manufacturers are intensively releasing new products. With technological progress and continuous costs in the folding machine industry chain, pain points related to folding machines (creases, heavy weight, etc.) are gradually alleviated, while prices have further fallen below 600 US dollars, and the folding machine industry is expected to usher in accelerated development. Since entering 24H2, related products such as Honor Magic V3, Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 and GalaxyZ Flip 6, Xiaomi MIX Fold 4, and Xiaomi's first small folding screen MIX Flip have appeared. We expect more folding machines to enter the market in the second half of the year. At the same time, in addition to common products that fold up and down and left and right, tri-fold phones may also be introduced, and it is hoped that products such as folding tablets will gradually be launched.
The hinge is one of the core components of folding screens, and the company integrates technology, production capacity, and customer resources. The hinge structure design of folding screens is complicated, and the requirements for strength and accuracy are high. According to estimates, the cost of a single folding mobile phone hinge is about 220 yuan. The company entered the MIM market through the acquisition of Shanghai Fuchi and Dongguan Huajing. The company set up a folding screen hinge design and assembly department, built several mobile phone hinge module production lines, and passed related tests and verification, and achieved leapfrog development from folding machine MIM parts to MIM parts+modules. At the same time, the company has high-quality customer resources such as Huawei. Since 23H2 Huawei released the Mate X5, sales of its folding screen phones have risen rapidly. According to Counterpoint, 24Q1 Huawei's folding screen sales were +257% year-on-year, and the global folding phone market share reached 35%. The company is leading the MIM technology industry, already has production capacity for parts+modules, has major customer resources, and is expected to usher in rapid development.
catalysts. The pace of introduction of folding screens is accelerating; the company's capacity utilization rate continues to rise.
Risk warning. Demand in other downstream sectors fell short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuated; R&D progress fell short of expectations.
