Zhongtong Financial App learned that Bocom International released a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating on Alibaba-SW (09988), and expects that the EBITA growth rate in the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year may still be under pressure, mainly considering Taotian's continued investment and the positive layout of international business overseas. It maintains the judgment that the profit margin will gradually recover trend in 2026 and the target price is 107 Hong Kong dollars.

The bank estimates that Alibaba's total revenue in the first fiscal quarter will be 251 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7%; the adjusted EBITA profit margin is 17%, a year-on-year decrease of about 2 percentage points, mainly considering increased investment in the e-commerce business to obtain market share. In addition, Bocom expects that Alibaba's e-commerce GMV will increase by 6% year-on-year in the first quarter, consistent with the market performance. Due to the continued implementation of pricing power and user-centric strategies, and the easing of competition margins as the traffic dividends of the live e-commerce platform fade away, the GMV growth rate of Taotian during the 618 promotion exceeded expectations. The bank expects the CMR to increase by 3% year-on-year, and the growth rate is still slower than GMV, mainly because the monetization rate of new merchant supply is still low.