This week's big schedule at a glance

• The Q2 earnings season for US stocks ushered in a climax, with Tesla and Google making financial reports

The US technology stock earnings season has begun. Tesla and Google's parent company Alphabet will take the lead in announcing financial reports on Tuesday, July 23, local time. According to consistent market expectations, Tesla's Q2 revenue is expected to reach 24.695 billion US dollars, down 0.93% year on year; earnings per share are 0.49 US dollars, down 37.46% year on year. Looking ahead to the second quarter results, the current market's focus on Tesla is mainly on the following aspects: automobile business revenue, energy storage business, Robotaxi, and Model 2 are the focus of attention, and free cash flow is expected to return to positive values.

Since this year, the stock price of Google, which has made major inroads into AI, has been growing steadily, rising by nearly 30% during the year. After releasing the Q1 results at the end of April, it has also closed sharply by nearly 10%, which has attracted much attention. With Google's Q2 results, the market will once again focus on the company's advertising and search business growth, cloud business growth, capital expenditure plans, and shareholder returns empowered by AI. According to analysts' unanimous estimates, Google will achieve revenue of 84.288 billion US dollars in 2024, an increase of 12.98% over the previous year; earnings per share are expected to be 1.84 US dollars, an increase of 27.71% year on year.

Additionally, Coca Cola, GM, Spotify, Ford, IBM, American Airlines, etc. will also release financial reports this week.

• The US will welcome a number of economic data, and the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator will join hands to hit GDP in the second quarter!

This week's market focus will focus on second-quarter GDP and June PCE. On Thursday July 25, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release preliminary GDP estimates for the second quarter. Wall Street predicts that the annualized initial quarterly value of US GDP for the second quarter was 1.8%, a significant increase from the previous value of 1.4%.

The agency predicts that the June core PCE price index announced on Friday July 26 rose 0.1% month-on-month (unchanged from the previous value), which will reduce the three-month annualized core inflation rate to the lowest level this year, and lower than the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

In addition to this, existing home sales in June, the monthly rate of durable goods orders, and the July manufacturing and service sector PMI the University of Michigan Consumer Survey Index for July are also critical. This will provide the Federal Reserve with a reference for the performance of the US economy at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter.

• Global central bank events: Federal Reserve officials have entered a “period of silence”, and the Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates again

At 04:05 Beijing time on Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan delivered opening remarks at an event. Federal Reserve officials will begin a period of silence this weekend and are not expected to make comments on monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold an interest rate meeting from July 30 to 31. According to a survey of 75 economists conducted by foreign media from July 12 to 17, economists lowered their expectations for US inflation in the first half of 2025 and expect the unemployment rate to rise slightly. They expect these factors to prompt the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates.

Also, at 9:45 on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada announced interest rate decisions and monetary policy reports. UBS believes that the Bank of Canada will stay on hold next week because wage growth has accelerated slightly and inflation data is mixed.

• China's July LPR is about to be announced

On Monday July 22, the Central Bank of China announced the July LPR quotation. Since February of this year, LPR has remained unchanged for four consecutive months. The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that with reference to overseas experience and recent policy statements, the LPR quotation mechanism may be improved, thereby improving policy efficiency and the degree of marketization. LPR quotes are also expected to be lowered in the short term, creating more suitable policy conditions for credit recovery.

According to Shen Wan Hongyuan's latest report, the LPR mechanism reform and reduction expectations are strong: on the one hand, the focus is on whether LPR will decouple MLF from OMO to complete policy interest rate reforms and focus more on short-term policy interest rates; on the other hand, considering the obvious weakness in current credit demand, July-August also coincides with a steady growth window in the middle of the year. Although the central bank continues to pay attention to long-term debt risks, the need to lower LPR is still strong.

• Trump will attend$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$General Assembly

Trump's attendance at the Bitcoin conference will be a key point for cryptocurrency assets. Bitcoin surpassed $67,000 for the first time in more than a month, leading people to speculate once again that the largest cryptocurrency may soon hit a new all-time high, as people are optimistic that Trump's second presidency will benefit the rise in digital assets.

Trump will be speaking on stage on Saturday (July 27), which is why the virtual currency market is so excited recently. Meanwhile, on the other side, the “withdrawal storm” surrounding US President Joe Biden is still at a standstill. Considering that the Democratic Party's National Convention will be held until at least August, it is impossible to rule out the possibility that this situation will continue (and worsen) for a week now.

• The Paris Olympics are about to kick off, and related concept stocks are expected to boost

The Paris Olympics will officially kick off on Friday local time. The capital market will also pay close attention to the impact of the Olympics on the consumer goods sector. According to NBC Global's estimates, IOC sponsors spent 18% more money for the Paris Olympics than the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. Consumer stocks that were heavily invested in the Olympics are expected to be boosted during the Olympics.

This week's key performance calendar

Monday July 22nd

Keywords：China 1-year/5-year loan market quotation interest rate

On Monday, in terms of economic data, China will announce the quoted interest rate for the one-year loan market and the quoted interest rate for the five-year loan market.

In terms of financial events, the State Information Office held a press conference on the theme of “Promoting High-Quality Development” series. Liu Liehong, director of the National Data Administration, attended the briefing and answered questions from reporters.

In terms of financial reports,$Verizon (VZ.US)$,$NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)$Financial reports will be published.

Tuesday, July 23

Keywords: Tesla, Google, Coca Cola, Visa financial report

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the US will release annual data on total existing home sales.

In terms of financial events, the Turkish central bank announced the interest rate decision, and the ECB's chief economist Lien delivered a speech.

In terms of financial reports,$Coca-Cola (KO.US)$,$GE Aerospace (GE.US)$,$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$Financial reports will be announced in advance of the US stock market.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$,$Visa (V.US)$Earnings will be announced after the market.

Wednesday July 24

Keywords: US new home sales data, preliminary PMI value, Ford Motor Company earnings report

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the US will release annual data on total new home sales, and$S&P Global (SPGI.US)$Preliminary PMI values for manufacturing and service industries.

In terms of financial events, the Bank of Canada announced interest rate decisions and monetary policy reports.

In terms of financial reports,$Ford Motor (F.US)$Results will be announced after the US stock market.

Thursday July 25th

Keywords: US GDP for the second quarter, number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, American Airlines earnings report

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the US will release a series of major data such as the number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week, the initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index, the initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP, and the monthly rate of durable goods orders.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan delivered opening speeches at an event.

In terms of financial reports,$Hermes International SA (HESAY.US)$,$British American Tobacco (BTI.US)$,$American Airlines (AAL.US)$Results will be announced later.

In terms of IPOs, US cold chain logistics giants$Lineage (LINE.US)$Five other companies will go public today.

Friday July 26th

Keywords: US Core PCE, Consumer Confidence Index, Colgate Financial Report

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the US will release data such as the annual rate of the core PCE price index, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, the expected final value of the one-year inflation rate, and the monthly rate of personal expenditure.

In terms of financial events, the Bank of Russia announced interest rate decisions.

In terms of financial reports,$Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US)$,$Colgate-Palmolive (CL.US)$Financial reports will be announced in advance of the US stock market.

In terms of new shares,$NIP Group (NIPG.US)$Launched today.

Also, from July 26th to August 11th, the 2024 Paris Olympics will be held in Paris, France.

Sunday July 28th

Keywords：Trump attends Bitcoin conference

At 3:00 a.m. on Sunday (July 28) Beijing time, Trump gave a 30-minute speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

edit/emily