Emerging market outlook: Pay attention to the battle of the growth 250 index on the 200-day line and the trend of the bio-related stock that plummeted over the weekend.

Fisco Japan · Jul 20 13:06

■買い優勢の展開も週ベースでは小幅な下落

今週の新興市場は小幅下落。同時期の騰落率は、日経平均が－2.74％だったのに対して、グロース市場指数は－0.10％、グロース市場250指数は－0.21％と新興市場は底堅い展開となった。連休明けは、米国市場で中小型中心に構成されているラッセル2000指数が引き続き上昇したことが刺激材料となり、グロース市場の主力株やバイオ関連銘柄を中心に買い優勢の展開に。東証グロース市場指数、東証グロース250指数ともに200日移動平均線を上回る場面も見られた。ただ、世界的に半導体株が下落したことで、投資家のマインドが低下。上昇していたグロース市場も利益確定が先行し、週ベースでは小幅な下落となった。

時価総額上位銘柄では、週末に6％超下落したJTOWER＜4485＞が上場来安値を更新したほか、買い優勢だったジーエヌアイグループ＜2160＞も週末売りに押された。ispace＜9348＞はほぼ横ばいで動意に欠ける展開。また、上場来高値圏で公募増資を発表したGENDA＜9166＞も希薄化が嫌気されて売られた。一方、円高ドル安を材料にアドベンチャー＜6030＞が買い優勢となったほか、弁護士ドットコム＜6027＞もしっかり。売買が目立った銘柄では、決算発表延期が嫌気されたJフロンティア＜2934＞が急落したほか、ELEMENTS＜5246＞は決算発表を材料に買い優勢となったが、買い一巡後は利益確定売りに押された。一方、シンバイオ製薬＜4582＞、オンコセラピー・サイエンス＜4564＞、ノイルイミューン＜4893＞、コージンバイオ＜177A＞などバイオ関連に短期資金が向かい大幅高が続出した。なお、18日にスタンダード市場に上場したカドス・コーポレーション＜211A＞の初値は、公開価格を10.7％上回る3210円となった。

■急落したバイオ関連に押し目買いが入れば、グロース市場の活況は続くか

来週の新興市場は、トランプ前大統領の言動で揺れるプライム市場よりはしっかりとしそうだが、東証グロース市場指数、東証グロース250指数ともに200日移動平均線水準を維持できるか注目したい。足元の新興市場の刺激材料だったラッセル2000指数は上げ一服だが、NYダウやナスダックなど主要株価指数と比べると、米国市場での中小型株物色は引き続き強いと見る。

物色の中心は引き続きバイオ関連となりそうだが、週末、セルシード＜7776＞、シンバイオ製薬、ノイルイミューン、コージンバイオ、クオリプス＜4894＞など足元買われていたバイオ関連が軒並み急落したことは気がかりだ。バイオ関連内での循環物色が止まれば、バイオ関連以外の受け皿が必要となる。宇宙関連に期待したいところだが、アストロスケールHD＜186A＞は上場来安値圏で推移。QPS研究所＜5595＞もじり安基調で浮上のきっかけが見出せない状況にあることから受け皿としては厳しいか。週明け、急落したバイオ関連に押し目買いが入れば、グロース市場の活況は続くと考えるが、バイオ関連総崩れとなると投資家のマインドも低下しそうだ。

なお、来週は23日にスタンダード市場と名証メインにフィットイージー＜212A＞、26日にグロース市場にタイミー＜215A＞がそれぞれ上場する。知名度が高く規模も大きいタイミーは注目度が非常に高い。換金売りも警戒だが、初値及び初値形成後の値動き次第では、グロース市場の物色の柱となろう。

Despite a buying trend, there was a small decline on a weekly basis.

This week, the emerging market experienced a small decline. During the same period, the Nikkei Average decreased by 2.74%, while the Growth Market Index and Growth Market 250 Index saw a more stable development, with drops of 0.10% and 0.21%, respectively. After the holiday weekend, the Russell 2000 Index, which is composed primarily of small- and mid-cap US stocks, continued to rise, serving as a catalyst for a buying trend in mainline stocks and bio-related stocks in the growth market. At times, both the Tokyo Growth Market Index and the Tokyo Growth 250 Index were seen above their 200-day moving averages. However, the global decline in semiconductor stocks caused investors' confidence to wane. The growth market, which had been rising, also saw profit-taking before experiencing a small weekly decline.

Among the top-ranked stocks by market capitalization, JTOWER <4485>, which fell more than 6% at the end of the week, updated its lowest price since it went public, while GNI Group <2160> also fell due to selling pressure at the end of the week. ispace <9348> showed little movement, and GENDA <9166>, which announced a public offering while trading near its high since its listing, was sold due to fear of dilution. On the other hand, Adventure <6030> became the buyer and Lawyer.com <6027> was firm amid a stronger yen and a weaker dollar. Among the stocks with notable trading: J-FRONTIER <2934>, which saw a sharp decline due to postponed financial reports, and ELEMENTS <5246>, which became the buyer based on its earnings report before facing selling pressure after a round of buying. As for bio-related stocks that saw a significant rise in short-term funds, Shin Nippon Biopharma <4582>, Oncoseera ropy Science <4564>, Noilemmune <4893>, and Coggin Bio <177A> were among the most prominent.

If bio-related stocks that fell sharply see bargain buying, will the growth market continue to remain active?

The emerging market next week is expected to remain sturdy, with a greater degree of stability than the prime market shaken by former President Trump's behavior. Whether the Tokyo Growth Market Index and the Tokyo Growth 250 Index can maintain their 200-day moving average levels will be a key factor to watch. Although the Russell 2000 Index, which served as a catalyst for the stimulus for the current emerging market, has leveled off, the search for small-cap US stocks in the US market is still strong compared to major stock indices such as the NY Dow and the Nasdaq. Despite bio-related stocks remaining the center of attention, there are concerns that several bio-related stocks, including Cell Seed <7776>, Shin Nippon Biopharma, Noilemmune, Coggin Bio, and Qualipse <4894>, which were recently purchased, may have fallen sharply over the weekend. If the circular buying within bio-related stocks stalls, a new receptacle, aside from bio-related stocks, will be required. Although space-related stocks are expected to perform well, Astroscale HD <186A> has remained in the lower-end of its listing, and QPS Research Institute <5595> is difficult to emerge from their current depressed state, which may pose a challenge as an alternative. If there is bargain buying after a sharp drop in bio-related stocks at the beginning of the week, the growth market is likely to remain strong. However, if bio-related stocks completely collapse, investors' sentiments may take a hit.

Although bio-related stocks continue to be the center of attention, it is worrying that bio-related stocks that were recently bought, such as Cell Seed, Shin Nippon Biopharma, Noilemmune, Coggin Bio, and Qualipse, all fell sharply over the weekend. If the circular buying within the bio-related stocks stalls, a new receptacle, aside from bio-related stocks, will need to be identified. Although space-related stocks are expected to perform well, Astroscale HD has remained in the lower-end of its listing, and QPS Research Institute finds it difficult to escape from their current depressed state, which may pose a challenge as an alternative. If there is bargain buying after a sharp drop in bio-related stocks at the beginning of the week, the growth market is likely to remain strong. However, if bio-related stocks completely collapse, investors' sentiments may take a hit.

Next week, Fit Easy <212A> will be listed on the Standard Market and the Mothers Market, while Timey <215A> will be listed on the Growth Market on the 26th. As Timey has a well-known name and a large scale, it is expected to receive a great deal of attention. Although there is a concern of cashing out, depending on the initial price and subsequent price fluctuations, it may become the pillar of the growth market's buying trend.

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新興市場見通し：グロース250指数は200日線の攻防、週末に急落したバイオ関連の動向に注目

Emerging market outlook: Pay attention to the battle of the growth 250 index on the 200-day line and the trend of the bio-related stock that plummeted over the weekend.

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