Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Former US President Trump reiterated his open attitude towards Chinese auto manufacturers producing cars in the United States, as a way to boost the US economy. This indicates that his approach may differ from the Biden administration's aim to keep cars related to China out of the US market.
During his speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Thursday, Trump stated that "as we speak, China is building large factories at the Mexican border" to produce cars for sale in the United States. "Those factories will be built in the United States in the future, and our people will work at these factories," he added, threatening to impose up to 200% tariffs on each car to prevent them from entering the United States if they fail to comply.
This statement is similar to his remarks at a rally in Ohio welcoming Chinese automakers to build factories in the United States in March, but without naming any specific companies. It is reported that China's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, BYD (01211), is seeking to establish one of the largest automobile factories in Mexico.
Both Trump and Biden are trying to prevent Chinese-made cars from entering the United States to protect domestic manufacturers. But when it comes to Chinese companies producing cars in the United States, Trump seems to be taking a more transactional approach.
In contrast, Biden has conducted a wide-ranging review of vehicles with ties to China, including cars that may be produced outside the United States. The Biden administration also launched an investigation into cars equipped with Chinese-made software, saying that such software could jeopardize the data and security of American citizens.
In addition, Trump criticized Biden's electric vehicle policy, pledging to take the opposite action on his first day in office. "I will end the electric car mandate on my first day in office," he said, "which will save the American auto industry from complete destruction and save tens of thousands of dollars on every car for American consumers."
It is understood that the Biden administration has no electric vehicle mandate, but some critics of the new air pollution restrictions issued by the US Environmental Protection Agency in March say that these regulations will illegally force car manufacturers to sell electric cars.
Shortly before making his remarks about electric vehicles, Trump criticized these tens of trillions of dollars in wasteful spending, calling it a "green new scam". He said he would use the money for projects such as roads, bridges, and dams, but it is unclear how he will keep his promise.
Trump makes no secret of his disdain for electric vehicles, claiming that the strategy of developing electric vehicles is not working and will benefit China and Mexico while harming American auto workers. In contrast, Biden has made the shift to electric vehicles one of his top climate and industry policies, setting a goal of 50 percent of new car sales being electric vehicles by 2030.
Editor/Lambor