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The global PC market continues to recover and will welcome an AI PC boom in the second half of the year?

Futu News · Jul 19 17:36

据多家第三方机构发布的数据显示，全球PC市场正持续回暖，而AI PC将助力市场加速复苏。市场调查机构Counterpoint的高级分析师William Li认为，随着AI用例和解决方案的不断丰富和应用，AI PC的部署将在未来加速。据此，AI PC相关概念股或迎来新一轮投资机会。

PC市场“复苏”进行时

近日，多家第三方机构发布2024年第二季度全球个人电脑出货量报告，表明该市场正处于回暖阶段。

昨日（7月18日），根据Counterpoint的初步数据，2024年第二季度全球PC出货量同比增长3.1%，达到6250万台，这也是PC市场出货量连续第二个季度实现同比增长。该增长由温和的换机周期和相对较低的基期推动，这凸显了2024年全球PC市场持续复苏的势头。

而在此前的7月10日，Canalys、IDC纷纷发布二季度全球PC市场表现报告。Canalys数据显示，2024年第二季度，全球PC市场连续三个季度增长，台式机和笔记本的出货量达6280万台，同比增长3.4%。在IDC的统计口径下，今年二季度全球PC市场持续正增长，出货量达到6490万台，同比增长3%。

Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani写道，IDC的最新结果表明，市场上一轮新的PC购置在进行中。自2024年以来，PC需求出现明显的复苏趋势，在第二季度实现超过3%的同比出货量增幅之前，今年第一季度，全球PC出货量实现回暖，共计出货量达到5980万台，同比增长1.5%，经过长达两年的下滑阶段后终于转为正增长。

AI PC有望掀起新一轮“升级周期”

AI PC成为刺激PC市场需求的新动能。根据群智预测，随着AI CPU与Windows的更新，2024年将成为AI PC规模性出货的元年，预计2024-2027年全球AI PC整机出货量开启高速增长，期间年复合增速到达126%，2026年AI PC出货量将达到1.1亿台，渗透率到达56%，全球PC产业由此稳步迈入AI时代。

Canalys预测数据显示，2024年堪称“AI PC元年”，预计2024年全球AI PC出货量将达到5100万台，占个人电脑(PC)总出货量的19%。但这仅是市场转型的开始，预计到2028年，AI PC出货量将达到2.08亿台，预计届时占PC总出货量份额有望超过70%，2024年至2028年期间的复合年增长率(CAGR)将达到惊人的42%。

AI PC受益股

富途资讯梳理了部分AI PC受益股，供牛友们参考：

$英特尔 (INTC.US)$：公司全新推出的酷睿Ultra处理器将AI专用的神经处理单元(NPU)与Arc GPU集成至CPU，其中NPU专门用于AI推理任务加速，这一款集成CPU+NPU+GPU的中央处理器被设计为公司“最高效的处理器”，标志着属于AI PC的时代正式到来。

$美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$：公司在近日公布了其第三代Ryzen AI处理器，并将其名为“Strix Point”，计划于7月初步上市。它们是为嵌入AI大模型的笔记本电脑所量身定制，在AMD Zen5 CPU架构的基础上结合了RDNA 3.5 GPU以及XDNA 2 NPU架构，全面集成CPU+GPU+NPU用于加速人工智能任务。在AIPC最核心的NPU性能方面，全新Ryzen AI 300系列处理器一举超越英特尔与高通，成为当今最强NPU。

$微软 (MSFT.US)$：公司最新推出的AI PC——Copilot+ PC，目前主要搭载高通的Snapdragon X Elite和X Plus处理器，高通推出的Snapdragon X系列处理器专为AI任务优化，配备强大的神经处理单元(NPU)，提供显著的能效提升和强大的AI大模型处理能力。

$联想集团 (00992.HK)$：6月25日，联想集团再次发布多款创新性的AI终端产品，包括引发全球高度关注的基于高通骁龙X Elite平台YOGA Air 14s骁龙AI元启，以及YOGA Air 14c AI元启、拯救者 Y9000P AI元启等三款AI PC。

编辑/Jeffy

According to data released by multiple third-party institutions, the global PC market is continuing to recover and AI PCs will help accelerate the market's recovery. William Li, senior analyst at market research firm Counterpoint, believes that AI PC deployment will accelerate in the future as AI use cases and solutions continue to become more abundant and applied. Therefore, AI PC-related concept stocks may usher in a new round of investment opportunities.

PC market recovery is underway.

Recently, multiple third-party institutions have released reports on global PC shipments in the second quarter of 2024, indicating that the market is in a recovery phase.

According to preliminary data from Counterpoint on July 18th, global PC shipments in the second quarter of 2024 increased by 3.1% year-on-year to reach 62.5 million units, marking the second consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth in PC shipments. This growth was driven by a moderate replacement cycle and relatively low base period, highlighting the continued momentum of the global PC market's recovery in 2024.

On July 10th, Canalys and IDC both released reports on the performance of the global PC market in the second quarter. According to Canalys data, the global PC market has grown for three consecutive quarters, with desktop and notebook shipments reaching 62.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in the second quarter of 2024. Under IDC's counting method, the global PC market has continued to grow positively in the second quarter of this year, with shipments reaching 64.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3%.

According to Amit Daryanani, an analyst at Evercore ISI, IDC's latest results indicate that a new round of PC purchases is underway in the market. Since 2024, there has been a clear trend of recovery in PC demand. Before achieving a year-on-year shipment increase of over 3% in the second quarter, global PC shipments rebounded in the first quarter of this year, with a total of 59.8 million units shipped, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, finally transitioning from a two-year decline phase to positive growth.

AI PCs are expected to usher in a new 'upgrade cycle'.

AI PCs have become a new driving force for stimulating demand in the PC market. According to collective intelligence, with the update of AI CPU and Windows, 2024 will be the first year of large-scale AI PC shipments. The global shipments of AI PCs are expected to start high-speed growth from 2024 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 126% during this period. In 2026, the shipments of AI PCs will reach 110 million units and the penetration rate will reach 56%, leading the global PC industry into the AI era.

Canalys predicts that 2024 will be the 'first year of AI PC', and global AI PC shipments are expected to reach 51 million units, accounting for 19% of total PC shipments. But this is just the beginning of market transformation, and by 2028, AI PC shipments are expected to reach 208 million units, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of a staggering 42% during the period from 2024 to 2028.

Beneficiaries of AI PCs

Futu News has compiled some AI PC beneficiary stocks for mooer reference:

$Intel (INTC.US)$Intel: The company's new Core Ultra processor integrates the neural processing unit (NPU) and Arc GPU dedicated to AI reasoning tasks into the CPU. This CPU+NPU+GPU integrated central processor is designed as the 'most efficient processor' for the company, signifying the official arrival of the AI PC era.

$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$AMD: The company recently announced its third-generation Ryzen AI processor, named 'Strix Point', which is planned to be launched in July. They are tailored for notebooks embedded with AI large models, combining RDNA 3.5 GPU along with XDNA 2 NPU architecture based on the AMD Zen5 CPU architecture. In terms of the core performance of the NPU in AIPC, the brand new Ryzen AI 300 series processor surpasses Intel and Qualcomm, becoming the most powerful NPU available today.

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Qualcomm: The company's latest Copilot+PC AI PC is mainly equipped with Snapdragon X Elite and X Plus processors. The Snapdragon X series processors launched by Qualcomm are specially optimized for AI tasks and equipped with powerful neural processing units (NPUs), providing significant energy efficiency improvements and strong AI large model processing capabilities.

$LENOVO GROUP (00992.HK)$On June 25th, Lenovo Group once again unveiled several innovative AI terminal products, including the highly anticipated YOGA Air 14s Snapdragon AI Core based on Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite platform, as well as YOGA Air 14c AI Core and Legion Y9000P AI Core. These three AI PCs.

Editor/Jeffy

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