IEA predicts that global electricity demand will increase by 4% in 2024, the highest level since 2007. In the next two years, solar power alone is expected to meet about half of the global electricity demand growth. Although renewable energy is growing rapidly, global coal-fired power generation is unlikely to decline this year.
According to the "Electricity Mid-Year Update" report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday, global electricity demand is growing at the fastest rate in nearly 20 years, but solar energy is expected to meet half of the demand growth.
IEA predicts that global electricity demand will increase by 4% in 2024, the highest level since 2007 (excluding the abnormal rebound after the 2010 global financial crisis and the demand collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021). The strong growth in global electricity demand will continue until 2025, with a growth rate of about 4%.
The report pointed out that the reasons for the surge in global electricity demand include hot weather and strong economic growth, especially in China, India, and the United States.
Due to strong economic activity and intense heat, India's electricity demand is expected to surge by 8% this year; due to strong activities in various industrial sectors including the service industry and clean energy manufacturing, China's electricity demand growth rate will also exceed 6% this year; American electricity demand is expected to rebound by 3% this year due to stable economic growth, rising cooling demand and the expansion of the data center industry.
In many parts of the world, the increase in air conditioner usage will continue to be an important driver of electricity demand. The IEA report found that in the first half of 2024, many regions around the world are facing intense heat waves, which increases electricity demand and puts pressure on the power system.
In addition, with the rise of artificial intelligence, the power demand of data centers is receiving more and more attention. IEA said that in the next few years, artificial intelligence will continue to play an important role in driving electricity demand.
However, IEA also pointed out that due to a lack of reliable historical data on data center power consumption and "very widespread uncertainty related to deployment speed," future forecasts will become tricky.
Rapid expansion of renewable energy
IEA pointed out that renewable energy will expand rapidly in the next two years, and its share in global electricity supply is expected to increase from 30% in 2023 to 35% in 2025. By 2025, global renewable energy generation is expected to exceed coal-fired generation for the first time.
In the next two years, solar power alone is expected to meet about half of the global electricity demand growth, and wind power will meet nearly 75% of the increment.
IEA also predicts that although renewable energy is growing rapidly, global coal-fired power generation is unlikely to decline this year. Therefore, global electricity industry CO2 emissions will tend to be stable, with a slight increase in 2024 and a decrease in 2025.