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US stocks lookahead | Deployed to solve Microsoft's outage issue! CrowdStrike's pre-market decline narrowed to 12%; Tesla's pre-market slightly increased, and the US price of high-end Model S/X was raised.

Futu News · 20:36

全球宏观

周五，美股三大股指期货盘前涨跌不一

纳斯达克称，微软的问题对纳斯达克交易系统没有影响，盘前交易不受影响。纳斯达克预计其所有的美国市场将正常开盘。截至发稿，三大期指盘前涨跌不一。

华尔街大佬们力挺科技股：暴跌只是暂时的，这是抄底良机！

不管是与大选相关的进展也好，还是因为美股的大轮动，美国科技股近期经历了巨大的打击。不过，华尔街似乎并不担心。摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）的交易部门预测，这种下跌将是短暂的。该行美国市场信息部门负责人Andrew Tyler表示，这是地缘政治担忧引发的“大规模过度反应”。

重磅！特朗普党代会发表最长提名演讲：“我上任第一天就终结电动车指令”

美国前总统特朗普在共和党全国代表大会上，正式接受总统候选人提名，并发表了一个小时33分钟的演讲；在这场重磅演讲中，特朗普详细复盘了他上周末被枪击的经过。他还承诺，上任第一天就终结电动车指令，还将通过减税和提高关税，来挽回美国就业机会，打压美国通胀，并恢复美国的世界形象。

特朗普2.0如何影响美联储？富国银行：降息幅度或不如预期！

富国银行团队在最新报告中表示，如果特朗普再次当选、实施全面关税计划导致通胀再抬头，那么美联储可能不会像预期的那样大幅降息。目前，分析人士得出的结论是，考虑到提高关税的通胀影响，特朗普的第二个任期可能最终会导致美联储的降息幅度低于预期。根据CME美联储观察工具，目前市场普遍预计美联储将在明年6月前降息5次，这将使政策利率区间降至4%至4.25%。

次贷危机预言家发声！吉姆·罗杰斯预警美股泡沫

美股将要调整了？曾经准确预言过1987年股灾，以及最早预测了美国次贷危机的国际投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯再度发声，警告投资者：市场即将面临调整。近日，罗杰斯在接受采访时表示，当前的美国股市环境显示出牛市衰退而非牛市强盛的迹象，他预计最快年底最晚明年美国股市将迎来调整。”

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前涨跌不一，博通涨超1%

致全球多地Windows系统崩溃？美国网络安全股盘前上涨

美国网络安全股盘前上涨，$SentinelOne (S.US)$涨超5%，$Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$涨近3%，$CyberArk (CYBR.US)$涨超1%。

消息面上，微软的服务问题导致IT故障事件，多家航空公司、银行和超市陷入瘫痪。网络安全软件公司$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$跌幅收窄至跌超12%，其发布消息称，公司已经确定了导致全球 Windows 系统崩溃的更新，并且“已经部署了修复程序”。

再现全球性IT故障！微软盘前跌幅收窄至1.54%

$微软 (MSFT.US)$盘前跌幅收窄至1.54%，报433.6美元。微软表示，导致故障的原因已经得到解决。此前，网络安全软件公司Crowdstrike发布消息称，公司收到大量关于Windows电脑出现蓝屏的报告。因大范围系统故障，19日全球多地的航空、银行和媒体机构等运营受到影响。

特斯拉盘前微涨，上调其高端车型Model S / X美国售价

美东时间7月18日，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$在美国上调其高端车型Model S和Model X售价，涨幅均为2000美元。特斯拉美国网站显示，Model S全轮驱动版售价由72,990美元调整至74,990美元；Plaid版由87,990美元调整至89,990美元；Model X全轮驱动版售价由77,990美元调整至79,990美元；Plaid版由92,990美元调整至94,990美元。

高盛：上调苹果目标价至265美元，预期2024财年iPhone出货量增至2.3亿

高盛发表报告，预计$苹果 (AAPL.US)$6月底止第三财季每股盈利1.36美元，高于市场预期的1.33美元；该行指，在人工智能系统Apple Intelligence以及新产品创新推动换机周期下，预期2024至2026财年各年iPhone出货量增长至2.3亿、2.4亿及2.56亿部；上调苹果2024至26财年各年每股盈测平均1%，目标价由238美元上调至265美元，予“买入”评级。

花旗：OpenAI将成博通第四大客户，新AI芯片预计明年下半年交付

博通盘前涨超1%，报162.78美元，据悉，OpenAI正与博通等芯片设计公司洽谈开发新款AI芯片的事宜。花旗认为，继$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$、Meta和字节跳动之后，OpenAI将成为博通的第四大ASIC（定制芯片）客户，预计博通将在2025年下半年之后向OpenAI交付。

奈飞盘前微涨，Q2业绩超预期，但自由现金流环比缩减

$奈飞 (NFLX.US)$盘前微涨，报645.85美元。消息面上，第二季度营收95.6亿美元，同比增17%，高于市场预期的95.3亿美元；每股收益4.88美元，同比增48%，超出市场预期的4.74美元。期内全球付费用户总数约2.78亿，同比增16.5%，付费用户净增805万，分别超过分析师预期的2.74亿和487万。期内自由现金流环比缩减近50%，至12.13亿美元，为至2022年以来最低水平。

ARM Holdings盘前涨超3%，大摩上调其评级至超配看高至190美元

$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$盘前涨超3%，报163.11美元。摩根士丹利将Arm Holdings评级从等配上调至超配，因为该公司在边缘人工智能领域的增长可能带来收益，将公司目标价从107美元上调至190美元。

“股神”旗下电力公司夏威夷电力盘前涨近40%，拟支付逾40亿美元解决毛伊岛山火诉讼

$夏威夷电力实业 (HE.US)$公司盘前暴涨近40%，报17.52美元。消息面上，知情人士表示，夏威夷电力等公司已初步同意支付逾40亿美元，以解决与去年毛伊岛山火有关的数百起诉讼。40亿美元的总金额将低于去年发布的损害评估中估计的55亿美元的火灾造成的资本成本。

直觉外科盘前涨超5%，第二季度营收同比增长14%超预期

$直觉外科公司 (ISRG.US)$盘前涨超5%，报438美元。消息面上，该公司第二季度营收为20.1亿美元，同比增长14%，市场预期为19.7亿美元；每股收益1.46美元，上年同期为1.18美元，市场预期为1.54美元。期内器械和配件收入同比增长16%至12.4亿美元。达芬奇手术系统安装数达9203台，同比增长14%。

大清洗！扎克伯格元宇宙梦碎，Meta“现实实验室”面临残酷现实

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$昨日上涨3%，今日盘前微涨，据美国科技网站The Information报道，meta正在削减VR、AR和元宇宙部门Reality Labs开支。自2019年以来，Meta在Reality Labs上的累计亏损已超过550亿美元，而年度亏损更是从2019年的45亿美元飙升至2023年的161亿美元。让投资者和公司内部的质疑声此起彼伏，Meta开始重新审视这个“烧钱”的部门。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普跌

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

22:40 FOMC永久票委威廉姆斯就货币政策发表讲话

次日

01:00 2024年FOMC票委博斯蒂克在一场活动上致闭幕词

01:00 美国至7月19日当周石油钻井总数(口)

编辑/ping

Global macro

On Friday, the three major U.S. equity index futures rose and fell before the market opened.

Nasdaq said that Microsoft's issues had no impact on Nasdaq's trading system and pre-trading was not affected. Nasdaq expects all of its U.S. markets to open normally. As of the time of publication, the three major index futures were up and down before the market.

Wall Street giants support tech stocks: the plunge is only temporary, it's a good opportunity to buy low!

Whether it is related to the progress of the general election or the large rotation of U.S. stocks, U.S. tech stocks have experienced a huge setback recently. However, Wall Street doesn't seem to be worried. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s trading department predicts that this decline will be short-lived. Andrew Tyler, head of the bank's U.S. market information department, said that this is a "massive overreaction" caused by geopolitical concerns.

Breaking News! Trump's party convention delivered the longest nomination speech: "I will end the electric car directive on my first day in office".

Former U.S. President Trump was officially nominated for the presidency and delivered a 1 hour and 33 minute speech at the Republican National Convention. In this heavyweight speech, Trump detailed the events of his shooting last weekend. He also promised to end the electric car directive on his first day in office and to restore American jobs, curb U.S. inflation, and restore America's image in the world by lowering taxes and raising tariffs.

How will "Trump 2.0" affect the Fed? Wells Fargo: The rate cut may not be as expected!

The Wells Fargo team stated in its latest report that if Trump is re-elected and the implementation of a comprehensive tariff plan leads to a resurgence of inflation, the Fed may not cut interest rates as much as expected. Currently, analysts have concluded that Trump's second term, considering the inflationary impact of the higher tariffs, may ultimately lead to the Fed's rate cut being lower than expected. According to CME's Fed Watch tool, the market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates 5 times before June next year, which will lower the policy rate range to 4% to 4.25%.

Subprime crisis prophet speaks out! Jim Rogers warns of a bubble in the U.S. stock market.

Is the U.S. stock market about to adjust? Jim Rogers, the international investment master who accurately predicted the 1987 stock market crash and was the first to predict the U.S. subprime crisis, has once again sounded the alarm, warning investors that the market is about to face an adjustment. Recently, Rogers said in an interview that the current U.S. stock market environment shows signs of a bull market decline rather than a bull market strength, and he expects the U.S. stock market to undergo an adjustment by the end of this year or next year at the latest.

Hot news

Growth tech and Broadcom were mixed before the market.

Did Windows systems around the world crash? American cybersecurity stocks rose before the market.

American cybersecurity stocks rose before the market.$SentinelOne (S.US)$rose more than 5%.$Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$They increased nearly 3%, more than 2%, and up by more than 1%, respectively, setting historical highs.$CyberArk (CYBR.US)$rose more than 1%.

On the news front, Microsoft's service issues led to IT failure incidents, which paralyzed several airlines, banks and supermarkets. Cybersecurity software company$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$The decline narrowed to more than 12%, and the company announced that it had identified updates that caused the global Windows system to crash, and "repaired programs have been deployed".

Global IT failure happening again! Microsoft's premarket drop narrowed to 1.54%.

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The premarket drop narrowed to 1.54%, reporting at $433.6. Microsoft stated that the cause of the failure has been resolved. Prior to this, cybersecurity software company, CrowdStrike, announced that it received a large number of reports of blue screens on Windows computers. Due to the widespread system failure, the operations of airlines, banks, media institutions, and other institutions around the world were affected on the 19th.

Tesla's pre-market rose slightly, raising the U.S. price of its high-end Model S and X.

On July 18, Eastern Time in the United States,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$raised the U.S. price of its high-end Model S and X by $2,000 each. Tesla's U.S. website shows that the price of the full-wheel drive version of the Model S has been adjusted from $72,990 to $74,990; the Plaid version has been adjusted from $87,990 to $89,990; the full-wheel drive version of the Model X has been adjusted from $77,990 to $79,990; the Plaid version has been adjusted from $92,990 to $94,990.

Goldman Sachs: Raised Apple's target price to $265, and expected the shipment volume of the iPhone in the fiscal year 2024 to increase to 0.23 billion.

Goldman Sachs released a report that predicts Apple's Q3 earnings per share to be $1.36, higher than the market's expected $1.33. The bank stated that it expects iPhone shipments to increase to 230 million, 240 million, and 256 million units respectively in fiscal years 2024-2026, driven by the Apple Intelligence AI system and new product innovation promoting upgrade cycles. The bank raised Apple's target price from $238 to $265 for fiscal years 2024-2026, and gave a "buy" rating.$Apple (AAPL.US)$Broadcom rose over 1% before market open, to $162.78, as it was reported that OpenAI is in talks with Broadcom and other chip design companies to develop new AI chips. Citigroup believes that after Google, Meta, and ByteDance, OpenAI will become Broadcom's fourth largest ASIC (custom chip) customer, and that Broadcom is expected to deliver to OpenAI after the second half of 2025.

Citigroup: OpenAI will become Broadcom's fourth-largest customer, and the new AI chip is expected to be delivered in the second half of next year.

Netflix rose slightly before market open, to $645.85. In terms of news, Q2 revenue was $9.56 billion, up 17% YoY, and higher than market expectations of $9.53 billion; earnings per share were $4.88, up 48% YoY, and exceeded market expectations of $4.74. The total number of paid users worldwide was about 0.278 billion during the period, up 16.5% YoY, and the net increase in paid users was 8.05 million, both exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.274 billion and 4.87 million. Free cash flow during the period decreased by nearly 50% QoQ to $1.213 billion, the lowest level since 2022.$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Williams, a power company under the "Stock God," rose nearly 40% before market open and is set to pay more than $4 billion to settle hundreds of lawsuits related to last year's Maui wildfire. Insider sources said that Hawaiian Electric and other companies have tentatively agreed to pay more than $4 billion to settle hundreds of lawsuits related to last year's Maui wildfire. The total amount of $4 billion will be lower than the estimated $5.5 billion capital cost of the fire published last year.

Intuitive Surgical rose over 5% before market open, with second-quarter revenue up 14% YoY, exceeding expectations.

$Netflix (NFLX.US)$Morgan Stanley raised its rating on ARM Holdings from Equal Weight to Overweight with a price target of $190, as the company's growth in the field of edge artificial intelligence could bring in revenue.

Before market open, ARM Holdings rose more than 3% as Morgan Stanley raised its rating on it from Equal Weight to Overweight, citing the company's growth potential in the field of edge AI, and raised its target price from $107 to $190.

$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$Meta, which rose 3% yesterday, rose slightly before market open today. According to US tech website The Information, Meta is cutting back on spending at its VR, AR, and metaverse department Reality Labs. Since 2019, Meta's cumulative losses in Reality Labs have exceeded $55 billion, and annual losses have surged from $4.5 billion in 2019 to $16.1 billion in 2023. With growing skepticism from investors and within the company, Meta is beginning to reassess this "burning money" department.

Prior to the opening of the market, Goldman Sachs released a report stating that it expects Apple's Q3 earnings per share to be $1.36, higher than the market's expected $1.33. The bank predicts that iPhone shipments will increase to 230 million, 240 million, and 256 million units respectively in fiscal years 2024-2026, driven by the Apple Intelligence AI system and new product innovation promoting upgrade cycles. The target price for Apple for fiscal years 2024-2026 has been raised from $238 to $265, and the bank has given a "buy" rating.

$Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE.US)$Goldman Sachs released a report predicting that Apple's Q3 earnings per share will be $1.36, surpassing the market's expectations of $1.33. The bank stated that it expects iPhone shipments to increase to 230 million, 240 million, and 256 million units respectively in fiscal years 2024-2026, driven by the Apple Intelligence AI system and new product innovation promoting upgrade cycles. The bank raised Apple's target price from $238 to $265 for fiscal years 2024-2026, and gave a "buy" rating.

Before the market opened, Baidu rose over 3% as Morgan Stanley raised its rating on it from Equal Weight to Overweight, citing the company's growth potential in the field of edge AI, and raised its target price from $107 to $190.

$Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)$Citigroup believes that after Google, Meta, and ByteDance, OpenAI is expected to become Broadcom's fourth largest ASIC (custom chip) customer, and that Broadcom is expected to deliver to OpenAI after the second half of 2025. Prior to the opening of the market, Broadcom rose over 1% to $162.78, as it was reported that OpenAI is in talks with Broadcom and other chip design companies to develop new AI chips.

Big clean-up! Zuckerberg's metaverse dream shattered, Meta's "Real-World Laboratory" faces brutal reality.

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Yesterday it rose by 3% and today it is slightly up before the market opens. According to the American technology website The Information, Meta is cutting spending on VR, AR and metaverse department Reality Labs. Since 2019, Meta's cumulative losses on Reality Labs have exceeded $55 billion, and annual losses have skyrocketed from $4.5 billion in 2019 to $16.1 billion in 2023. Investors and internal doubts are soaring, and Meta is re-examining this "cash-burning" department.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

China concept stocks fell before market.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

22:40 FOMC permanent voter Williams speaks on monetary policy.

Next day

01:00 FOMC voter Boztik delivers closing remarks at an event in 2024.

01:00 U.S. oil drilling total for the week ending July 19 (in barrels).

Editor/ping

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