The “Trump risk” cannot be underestimated, said the director of Yiu Chai Securities Research. In one of his interviews, he talked about a round of shocks to financial markets. As the US dollar fell, semiconductor stocks were also shaken by the Biden administration's intention to tighten restrictions on Chinese chip exports. This fall is a little off the mark, but it also reflects the difficulty of avoiding these risks in future investment deployments. As for whether this fall means that the rise of the AI segment has come to an end, the authors do not agree that performance is of course the biggest consideration, but short-term volatility seems to be difficult to avoid!
In terms of Hong Kong and A shares, while investors continue to look for the general meeting news, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have lacked direction, and Hong Kong stocks have continued to fall narrowly, while both Shanghai markets have not fared as well. Economic data released at the beginning of the week did not come as a surprise, especially as retail sales remained weak in June and GDP in the second quarter was lower than expected, making markets more concerned about stimulus measures.
AS U.S. STOCKS ARE HEADING INTO THE HIGHS OF EARNINGS RELEASE, LEADING FINANCIAL STOCKS OUTPERFORMED EXPECTATIONS, LEADING TO CONTINUED HIGHS THIS WEEK, AND TECHNOLOGY STOCKS WILL BE ANNOUNCED LATER TODAY (19TH), WITH TSM.US ON TUESDAY (19TH). Given that TSM had previously released June revenue data and provided guidance on operating metrics for the second quarter after the first quarter results, there were preliminary estimates for the second quarter results. Nevertheless, TSM delivered a satisfactory results statement: revenues for the period were US$20.82 billion, up 10.3% gross year-on-year; interest rate and operating profit The profit margin was 53.2% and 42.5%, and all operating data exceeded the guidance. As for the most-watched Q3 operating guidance, revenue is expected to be between $22.4 billion and $23.2 billion, a ratio of 7.6% to 11.4%; a gross margin of 53.5% to 55.5%, an operating margin of 42.5% to 44.5%, reflecting a continued increase in the share of advanced processes (up from 65% to 67% in Q1, of which 3 Miu rose 9% to 15%), TSM also pointed to strong demand for 3 and 5nm in the second half of the year, plus strong demand for mobile phones or AI chips; plus customers for advanced packaging such as Demand for CoWoS remains strong, even with continued expansion, but supply balance may not be reached until 2026, and TSM therefore raised its full-year revenue target to above 25%.
As for the 2-nanometer (N2) manufacturing progress, TSM is also mentioned. It is expected that next year, the performance of the improved version of N2P will increase by 5% over N2. It is expected that production in the second half of 2026 will continue to establish TSM as the leading supplier.
Of course, geopolitical factors and Trump's subsequent comments on Taiwan are of greater concern, which are bound to be the biggest challenge for TSM stock prices in the near future. However, in addition to the absolute leadership of global wafer brokers (AI chips), the TSM management also points out that tariffs are generally borne by local customers themselves, so buyers remain confident in their prospects and will continue to hold and increase the stock.
(Owner of TSMC) ~