Hot news

• Market awaits Trump's "new golden age" speech.

On Friday, from 6:45 to 11:30 Beijing time, Republican presidential candidate Trump will be nominated and deliver a keynote speech at the Republican National Convention. The Republican National Committee said the focus of Thursday's convention was "how Trump can open a new golden age for America." Considering the "Trump interview" that caused waves in the market this week, which actually took place at the end of June before his debate with Biden, this will also be Trump's latest complete policy statement since his debate and assassination attempts.

• Fed officials suggest that a rate cut is imminent: Waiting too long to act carries the risk of a recession.

On Thursday, July 28, Fed Chair and FOMC voting member Guolsby said that the actual federal funds rate, the difference between interest rates and inflation rates, was at a multi-decade high. This means that the actual federal funds rate has tightened significantly, but there are no signs of overheating in the economy. He warned that if Fed officials wait too long to relax monetary policy, there is a risk of causing an economic recession. Another FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President, Logan, did not discuss monetary policy, but she also pointed out that the current federal deposit insurance limit may be too low, which could pose risks in due course, given the situation that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered the US banking crisis last year.

• Goldman Sachs' top stock analyst says that AI won't spark an economic revolution, and bubbles will burst sooner or later.

Jim Covello, head of stock research for Goldman Sachs, said that companies spending billions of dollars on AI will not trigger the next economic revolution -- and will not even match the benefits of smartphones and the internet. He believes that AI is replacing low-paying jobs with expensive technology, which is completely opposite to the transformative technology transitions that have taken place in the tech industry over the past thirty years, so all stocks that have risen sharply because of the prospects for AI will eventually fall.

• Biden is gradually accepting the possibility of losing and withdrawing from the election.

According to foreign media reports, several people close to Biden said on Thursday that in response to the growing demands of many anxious members of the party, they believe Biden has begun to accept the idea that he may not win the November presidential election and may have to withdraw from the election. A person close to him warned that the president had not yet made up his mind to withdraw from the race, and three weeks ago he insisted that there was almost nothing that would make him withdraw from the race. Many other Democrats, who are less connected to the White House, say more and more people in the party believe the president will soon soften his stance.

• US mortgage rates fell for the second consecutive week, easing pressure on home buyers.

US mortgage rates fell for the second consecutive week. According to a statement by Realtor.com on Thursday, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.77%, the lowest level since mid-March and below last week's 6.89%. According to RedfinCorp, borrowing costs are falling off their highs, helping to push down monthly housing payments from record highs. Redfin said buyers are also benefiting from an increase in supply, with total housing listings approaching their highest level in about four years. Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu expects the inventory increase to gradually exert downward pressure on price increases, and the decline in mortgage rates will help lower borrowing costs and provide more help to potential home buyers.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

• The three major US indexes fell collectively, and Nvidia and Meta bucked the trend.

As of Thursday's close, the three major US indexes fell collectively, with the S&P 500 down 0.78% to 5544.59, the Nasdaq down 0.7% to 17871.22, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.29% to 40665.02, ending its six-day daily rise.

Most of the major technology stocks fell, with Amazon and Apple down more than 2%, Google down more than 1%, Netflix and Microsoft down slightly; some giants rose, with Meta up more than 3%, Nvidia up more than 2%, and Tesla up slightly.

Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with the Nasdaq China Gold Index down 1.21%. Xpeng Motors and JD.com fell more than 2%, NIO and Li Auto fell more than 1%, while Alibaba, Weibo, Netease and Baidu fell slightly.

• Performance exceeded expectations! TSMC's Q2 sales increased by 40% year-on-year, and the lower limit of annual capital expenditure guidance was raised.

Global chip manufacturing giants$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The latest financial report released before the Thursday market opening showed that the company's Q2 sales increased by 40% year-on-year, and net income and gross margin exceeded expectations. The company expects capital expenditures of 30-32 billion US dollars for the year, and raised its annual sales growth forecast in US dollars to above the mid-point range of 20%. TSMC Chairman and CEO Wei Zhejia said that the main reason for raising the annual capital expenditure guidance was to consider higher growth opportunities. The partial revenue that exceeded the guidance in this quarter mainly benefited from the N3 and N5 process demands. TSMC's US stocks rose more than 4% in early trading, but then fell sharply to a decrease of 4%, and rose slightly at the close.

• Netflix fell nearly 7% after hours, and its third-quarter revenue forecast is lower than expected.

US streaming giant Netflix released its latest financial report after Thursday's market close, with Q2 revenue up nearly 17% year-on-year to $9.56 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of $9.53 billion, and also higher than the company's official guidance of $9.49 billion. At the same time, Netflix's Q2 streaming users growth rate is nearly twice as high as the market expected, and the global number of paid users increased by 16.5% year-on-year to about 0.278 billion. However, the company's guidance for Q3 revenue and full-year free cash flow outlook is lower than market expectations. Influenced by this, Netflix fell 0.68% overnight, and fell nearly 7% after hours, but the decline has since narrowed to less than 1%.

• OpenAI starts price war! Launches "cheap and powerful" GPT-4o mini model

US AI startup OpenAI announced on Thursday that its new generation of entry-level AI "small models" GPT-4o mini with significantly reduced prices has been officially launched. Free/paid users of ChatGPT have been using this new model since Thursday, and enterprise users will receive an update next week. According to statistics, GPT-4o mini has reached the lowest price among mainstream "small models" of American AI companies, requiring $0.15 and $0.60 respectively for each 1 millionTokens input/output. By comparison, the price for each input/output of 1 millionTokens of GPT-4o model is $5/$15.

• Guo Mingchi: Apple may not have increased iPhone 16 orders

Well-known consumer electronics analyst Guo Mingchi wrote on Thursday that despite rumors of increased iPhone 16 orders after the global developers conference, earnings conference calls from Apple's two main suppliers (TSMC and Largan Precision) imply that iPhone 16 orders may not have increased (about 87 million units), and are still slightly lower than the number of iPhone 15 orders in the second half of last year (about 91 million units). He also questioned the underlying logic of Apple Intelligence promoting the demand for phone upgrades in the second half of the year. As of the close, Apple fell more than 2%.$Apple (AAPL.US)$The CoSAI Alliance for secure AI, whose founding members include Google, OpenAI, AI startup Anthropic, Cohere, cybersecurity startup Chainguard, WIZ, and GenLab

• Broadcom is in talks with OpenAI to develop new AI server chips.

American technology giant$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Meta is exploring an investment of billions of euros in European eyewear manufacturer EssilorLuxottica. The two companies collaborated last year to launch the "Ray-Ban I Meta" smart glasses. Insiders revealed that Meta is in talks to acquire about 5% stake of EssilorLuxottica. As of press time, the latter's market value exceeds $95 billion, making it the ninth-largest listed company in France, which means the potential transaction price is slightly below $5 billion. As of the close, Meta rose more than 3%.

• Technology giants such as Google have launched the secure AI alliance.

$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Google has launched the CoSAI Alliance for secure AI, whose founding members include Google, OpenAI, AI startup Anthropic, Cohere, cybersecurity startup Chainguard, WIZ, and GenLab. Google admits that AI needs a security framework and application standards to keep up with its rapid growth, which is why they shared the Security Artificial Intelligence Framework (SAIF) last year. But implementing any industry framework requires close collaboration with others. As of the close, Google Class A shares fell 1.8%.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$,$Intel (INTC.US)$,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$,$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$,$Cisco (CSCO.US)$,$PayPal (PYPL.US)$Broadcom is in talks with OpenAI to develop new AI server chips. According to reports, OpenAI has hired engineers from Google's TPU design department so that they can develop their own AI server chips. This is to reduce their dependence on Nvidia and is also part of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's vision of improving global semiconductor infrastructure.

• Broadcom is discussing with OpenAI to develop new AI server chips.

According to foreign media reports,$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$Weight loss drugs "Shuangxiong" encountered consecutive days of falling stock prices; as of the close of Thursday, Hailan Bio's stock price fell more than 6%, hitting its biggest drop since September 2021; Novo Nordisk fell more than 4%, dropping to the lowest level in nearly two months. The continuous decline in the past three days has resulted in a market value reduction of nearly $86 billion for the world's largest pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly and Co., and a market value reduction of $67.5 billion for Europe's largest listed company Novo Nordisk. The sell-off coincided with rival Roche's early positive test results for its oral weight loss drug.

The report also stated that if the chip is ultimately developed, it will not be produced until 2026 at the earliest due to many details that still need to be finalized. Affected by this news, Broadcom rose 2.91% on Thursday. Representatives of Broadcom and OpenAI have not immediately responded to requests for comment.

• Before the market opening on Thursday, the latest financial report was released, showing that the company's Q2 sales volume was 18,000 kiloliters, an increase of 28.10% year-on-year, which is a significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of 10-30 billion yuan products was 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

TSMC's US stocks rose more than 4% in early trading, but then fell sharply to a decrease of 4%, and rose slightly at the close.$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$Netflix fell nearly 7% after hours, and its third-quarter revenue forecast is lower than expected.$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$Well-known consumer electronics analyst Guo Mingchi wrote on Thursday that despite rumors of increased iPhone 16 orders after the global developers conference, earnings conference calls from Apple's two main suppliers (TSMC and Largan Precision) imply that iPhone 16 orders may not have increased (about 87 million units), and are still slightly lower than the number of iPhone 15 orders in the second half of last year (about 91 million units). He also questioned the underlying logic of Apple Intelligence promoting the demand for phone upgrades in the second half of the year. As of the close, Apple fell more than 2%.

• Shares of Hawaiian Electric Industries, a subsidiary of Buffett's company, rose nearly 50% after hours.

According to sources,$Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE.US)$The company, among others, has reached a settlement agreement of over $4 billion on the Maui wildfire issue, which will help resolve hundreds of fire-related lawsuits.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

• Northbound funds grabbed nearly HKD 1.4 billion in Tencent, and sold nearly HKD 0.3 billion in ICBC.

On Thursday, southbound funds net bought HKD 2.397 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$CNOOC (00883.HK)$Net purchases were HKD 1.399 billion, HKD 0.241 billion, and HKD 0.177 billion respectively;

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$CCB (00939.HK)$,$HKEX (00388.HK)$Net sales were HKD 0.583 billion, HKD 0.278 billion, and HKD 0.13 billion respectively.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Several Fed officials will speak.

On Friday, with regards to economic events, FOMC permanent voter and NY Fed President Williams spoke about monetary policy; FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Kaplan gave the opening speech at an event.

Regarding financial reports,$American Express (AXP.US)$,$Schlumberger (SLB.US)$Earnings will be announced before pre-market trading.

Futubull Morning News:

Investment is not just an action, but also a philosophical thing!

- John Campbell [US]

Editor: Eason