On July 19th, financial news website Cailian Press reported that renowned consumer electronics analyst Guo Mingji stated in an article on Thursday that while rumors of increased iPhone 16 orders have periodically circulated since the June WWDC, recent statements from suppliers raise questions about the matter. He also questioned the underlying logic of "Apple Intelligence" boosting demand for phone upgrades in the second half of the year.$Apple (AAPL.US)$According to Guo Mingji's interpretation, while there are indeed specific suppliers that have seen increased iPhone 16 orders for the second half of this year, orders for the phone as a whole remain at about 87 million, unchanged from previous estimates, from the perspective of EMS factory/assembly. This is lower than the 91 million orders of the iPhone 15 series in the same period last year, so the trends observed by key suppliers, such as Taiwan Semiconductor and Largan, reflect this and are quite informative. He also said that the order volume increases seen by some suppliers may be attributed to specific industries or components.

Just last week, media reports citing insiders claimed that Apple expects to increase iPhone shipments by 10% this year, making for a potentially exciting series of subsequent disclosures.

Has there been no major change in iPhone 16 orders for the second half of the year?

Guo Mingji stated that despite periodic rumors of Apple adding orders, at recent explanation meetings by key suppliers such as Taiwan Semiconductor and Largan, these companies both implied that there has been no increase in iPhone 16 orders. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor said "we have not seen sudden increases in shipments", while optics and optoelectronics equipment manufacturer Largan explicitly stated that "orders for high-end models are about the same as last year".

Guo Mingji interpreted this to mean that while there are indeed specific suppliers that have seen increased iPhone 16 orders for the second half of this year, orders for the phone as a whole remain at about 87 million, unchanged from previous estimates, from the perspective of EMS factory/assembly. This is lower than the 91 million orders of the iPhone 15 series in the same period last year, so the trends observed by key suppliers, such as Taiwan Semiconductor and Largan, reflect this and are quite informative.

He also said that the order volume increases seen by some suppliers may be attributed to specific industries or components.

Guo Mingji stated that some supplier order volume increases could be related to specific industries or components.

"Apple Intelligence" driving phone upgrades?

What may be even more discouraging for many analysts is Guo Mingji's questioning of the idea that "Apple Intelligence" will drive phone upgrades in the second half of the year. This underlying logic has been a popular talking point for many analysts recently.

He noted that when Apple Intelligence, which will be released with iPhone 16 later this year, is only a beta version for testing by US users and only supports English, and it remains to be seen whether it alone could increase demand for phone upgrades. Whether it is too optimistic to expect consumers to buy new iPhones this year just to test the Apple Intelligence beta version is another matter altogether.

Recap: expected iPhone shipments of 90 million in 2H23.

In leaks from last Wednesday, media outlets cited sources from the supply chain as saying that Apple had told suppliers and partners that the company's goal was to increase iPhone shipments by 10% over the previous generation. In the second half of 2023, a total of 81 million iPhone 15 series phones were shipped.

This leak indicates that Apple is anticipating that shipments of the iPhone 16 series in the second half of this year will exceed 90 million. Insiders also said that Apple now believes that some of the "Apple Intelligence" functions added to iPhone 16 will help increase consumer demand when it goes on sale later this year.

Editor/Somer