In recent years, with the changing global energy landscape, a nuclear power renaissance is happening. The trend of clean energy combined with international turmoil has made nuclear power increasingly popular in various countries, with support policies being continuously implemented.

Natural uranium is to nuclear power as coal is to coal-fired power plants. As the main fuel for the operation of nuclear power plants, the spring of uranium mines may come again. After several years of decline, the international uranium price began to show signs of recovery in 2020, and then soared more than three times. Bloomberg recently predicted that by the end of 2025, the asset size of uranium ETFs is expected to exceed 10 billion U.S. dollars, half of which has already been reached.

The frenzy of uranium mining may not have stopped yet. As the nuclear power policies of various countries around the world heat up again, 22 countries including the United States, Japan, and South Korea have promised to double global nuclear energy by 2050. In addition, the global AI boom will drive massive demand for nuclear power, which will also help push up uranium prices. Huatai Securities also pointed out that the intensity of this round of global nuclear power renaissance is comparable to that of the 1970s, and the "ten-year wait" for uranium mines has come. The institution predicts that the global uranium supply-demand gap may widen after 2027, but the intensification of medium- and long-term supply-demand mismatch will provide stronger support for prices, and the uranium price will continue to enter the upward channel. The ceiling price of uranium mines may also be further opened due to the structural price increase of overseas nuclear power brought by recent AI data centers.

Given the continuous growth of global demand for uranium, Zerohedge, a well-known financial media, believes that the price of uranium will double in the next two years and exceed the level of 2007.

"Soaring" uranium prices are more powerful than gold and will double in the next two years?

Since the international uranium price climbed to a historical high in 2007, it has experienced a bear market for 10 years. The uranium price began to show signs of recovery in 2020 and then started a round of "crazy ascent" mode.

Since early 2020, the international uranium price has risen three times. From July 2023 to January 2024, the international uranium price rose by more than twice, with a maximum increase of over 100 US dollars, and then stabilized at around 85 US dollars per pound.

Since mid-2023, the international uranium price has risen by more than 60%. In contrast, the increase in gold price during the same period was 19%, and the increase in silver price was 28%.

In view of the continuous growth of global demand for uranium, Zerohedge believes that the price of uranium will double in the next two years and exceed the level of 2007.

Bloomberg recently predicted that the asset size of uranium ETFs is expected to exceed 10 billion U.S. dollars by the end of 2025, half of which has already been reached. $Global X Uranium ETF (URA.US)$And$Exchange Traded Concepts Trust North Shore Global Uranium Mng Etf (URNM.US)$Leading this growth, the combined scale of the two three years ago was only 0.15 billion U.S. dollars, and now it has grown to 5 billion U.S. dollars.

Nuclear power policies in various countries are heating up again. The United States has enacted several laws to promote the development of the nuclear power industry as nuclear power returns to popularity.

In July 2024, U.S. President Biden signed the "Accelerating Deployment of Multifunctional Advanced Nuclear Energy to Achieve Clean Energy Act." The law will promote the development and deployment of advanced reactors and protect existing nuclear power plants, strengthen nuclear fuel cycle, supply chain, infrastructure construction and talent cultivation, as well as improve nuclear management efficiency. In 2019, the United States also issued the "Nuclear Innovation and Modernization Act."

It is worth noting that on May 13 this year, the White House announced that President Biden officially signed a bipartisan bill that banned the import of Russian-produced unirradiated low-enriched uranium. The market expects that the import ban signed by Biden may further stimulate the continued rise in prices of related products. At the same time, U.S. nuclear power plants are being restarted. The U.S. government is funding the restart of a nuclear power plant in Michigan that was closed two years ago and was scheduled for retirement. The nuclear power plant is expected to resume power generation by the end of 2025.

At the same time, the nuclear power station in the United States is restarting. Recently, the U.S. government is funding the restart of a nuclear power plant in Michigan that was closed two years ago. The nuclear power plant is expected to resume power generation by the end of 2025. On November 2023, at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) held in Dubai, the United States and 21 other countries launched the "2050 three times nuclear energy declaration," including nuclear power countries such as France, the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom signed the declaration. The declaration aims to promote the realization of the target of global nuclear energy installed capacity increasing twice that of 2020 by 2050, and invite the shareholders of international financial institutions to include nuclear energy in energy loan policies.

At the same time, nuclear power stations in the United States are restarting. Recently, the U.S. government is funding the restart of a nuclear power plant in Michigan that was closed two years ago. The nuclear power plant is expected to resume power generation by the end of 2025.

Last year, 22 countries including the United States, Japan, and South Korea also collectively promised to double global nuclear energy by 2050. At the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) held in Dubai in November 2023, the United States and 21 other countries launched the "2050 three times nuclear energy declaration," including nuclear power countries such as France, the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom signed the declaration. The declaration aims to promote the realization of the target of global nuclear energy installed capacity increasing twice that of 2020 by 2050, and invite the shareholders of international financial institutions to include nuclear energy in energy loan policies.

Global nuclear power is in the midst of a new round of revival, and nuclear power installations are expected to return to their peak.

Huatai Securities pointed out that the nuclear power revival cycle is underway. On the one hand, the oil and gas energy security issues caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict are driving the revival of nuclear energy policies in the United States and Europe. On the other hand, the demand for controllable installations, such as nuclear power, is increasing due to the pressure brought by high-volatility new energy penetration on the power system.

Huatai Securities stated that global nuclear power is in the midst of a new round of revival, similar to the 1970s and 1980s, with the prospect of a return to peak nuclear power installations. Global nuclear power reached its peak twice during the two oil crises in the 1970s and 1980s, with an average annual increase of 17 GW of new units and a single-year increase of up to 30 GW in installation capacity. After the 1990s, nuclear power development entered a period of adjustment. With the alleviation of global energy shortages and the occurrence of nuclear safety accidents, the global annual newly installed nuclear power capacity from 1990 to 2020 decreased to an average of 5 GW per year. Since the 2020s, the approval, restart, and construction of nuclear power plants have accelerated globally, and institutions predict that the annual average increase in global nuclear power installations reflected by this will reach or exceed 18 GW from 2024 to 2035, returning to the peak level of the 1970s.

AI is driving the development of nuclear power and driving demand for uranium mines.

The rapid development of AI has also brought huge demand for electricity, and nuclear power has become a key "cure".

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$And is also accelerating the deployment of nuclear power. Microsoft founder Bill Gates revealed that he will continue to invest billions of dollars in the "next generation" of nuclear power plants in Wyoming, USA. He said, "I have invested over a billion dollars and will invest billions more."

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also told CNBC last year that nuclear energy may be the best solution to the increasing demand for energy caused by AI.

Huatai Securities pointed out that the ceiling of uranium prices may further open up with the structural price increase of overseas nuclear power brought by recent AI data centers.

Editor/ping