According to a research report released by CSC Securities, under the traditional model, the workload of express delivery staff is large and the efficiency of delivery is gradually slowing down. Therefore, it is almost impossible for the express headquarters to continue to reduce costs through the strategy of simply relying on "reducing the delivery cost when the growth rate of the guarantee volume is greater than the decrease rate of the delivery fee → improving the total income of franchisees and couriers". Therefore, at the current point in time, the market must get rid of and update the research and analysis framework of the express delivery industry originally centered on "total volume and price benefits", and re-understand how terminal changes (direct chain + post station + scattered orders + unmanned cars) can catalyze the continuous operation of the express delivery flywheel like a new land on the old map.

1. The four main bodies of the express delivery industry, including headquarters, franchisees, couriers and direct customers, have formed the 'express delivery industry flywheel' based on multiple relationships formed during the business operation process. 2. Direct customers, including enterprises, consumers and governments, are all direct customers of the express delivery industry. Due to different express delivery demands and operating modes, franchisees are still the main players. E-commerce platforms and businesses that rely on platforms are the most important customer partners in the express delivery industry, and e-commerce presents a trend of four divided markets and low prices. 3. The franchisee is both a core customer of the express headquarters and an important link in serving express customers. The overall goal of the headquarters is highly consistent with the individual goals of franchisees, enabling the success of the franchise model. It is only by understanding the franchisee income model beyond the report that we can truly understand the essence of competition. 4. Express delivery staff costs account for the largest proportion in the entire link, which is a key factor affecting efficiency and price wars. The cost of express delivery staff is relatively stable, and the rise or fall is jointly affected by the national per capita income level, supervision and social security policies, and labor supply and demand patterns. 5. The express headquarters plays the role of a platform, providing core national network, settlement and system services. The pricing logic of the headquarters is booming and declining, maintaining the maximum utilization of production capacity through prices; the three core costs are transportation costs, transfer costs and delivery costs.

(1) Direct customers: Enterprises, consumers and governments are all direct customers of the express delivery industry. Due to different express delivery demands and operating modes, franchisees are still the main players. E-commerce platforms and businesses that rely on platforms are the most important customer partners in the express delivery industry, and e-commerce presents a trend of four divided markets and low prices.

(2) Franchisees are both core customers of the express headquarters and an important link in serving express customers. The overall goal of the headquarters is highly consistent with the individual goals of franchisees, enabling the success of the franchise model. It is only by understanding the franchisee income model beyond the report that we can truly understand the essence of competition.

(3) Express delivery staff costs account for the largest proportion in the entire link and are a key factor affecting efficiency and price wars. The cost of express delivery staff is relatively stable, and the rise or fall is jointly affected by the national per capita income level, supervision and social security policies, and labor supply and demand patterns.

(4) The express headquarters plays the role of a platform, providing core national network, settlement and system services. The pricing logic of the headquarters is booming and declining, maintaining the maximum utilization of production capacity through prices; the three core costs are transportation costs, transfer costs and delivery costs.

The four main bodies of the express delivery industry, including the headquarters, franchisees, couriers and direct customers, reinforce the flywheel effect of the express delivery industry through their mutual interactions in the supply and demand cycle.

(1) The express headquarters and franchisees are key players in the continued operation of the express delivery flywheel. The express headquarters can continuously adjust the delivery cost lever and policy rebate to the shipping cost of franchisees, and indirectly determine the terminal price of direct customers, under the smooth and stable realization of capacity growth and corresponding asset utilization improvement. (2) The smooth operation in the initial stage is due to the organizational flexibility brought by the franchise system and the price advantage under extreme cost. The organizational flexibility brought by the franchise system is reflected in both the scalability of the starting network phase and the decision-making mechanism tailored to local conditions (compatible incentives + cost compression) in the expansion phase. The price advantage under extreme cost is mainly reflected in the capital efficiency, with lower costs for franchisee terminal network construction and operation. (3) In the long run, the price war is a 'negative' product derived from the continuous operation of the express delivery flywheel. Although the benefits of the headquarters and franchisees playing games lie in the continuous reduction of costs and prices, they can obtain more business volume and market share. However, looking at the changes in the proportion of overall industry prices and franchise headquarters prices, the headquarters and franchisees are playing a so-called 'zero-sum game' around a period of about three years. The undifferentiated express delivery service forms the pricing power and profit differences of different brand express delivery services.

Total, franchisees and express delivery staff jointly promote terminal changes to create a new express delivery flywheel.

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During the operation of the flywheel, the seven "cannot" hinder the continued operation of the flywheel, including: (1) inability to generate more volume, (2) inability to set lower delivery fees, (3) inability to improve higher efficiency, (4) inability to provide lower prices, (5) inability to have more capacity, (6) inability to provide more rebates, and (7) inability to have lower costs.

(1) Direct customers: Enterprises, consumers and governments are all direct customers of the express delivery industry. Due to different express delivery demands and operating modes, franchisees are still the main players. E-commerce platforms and businesses that rely on platforms are the most important customer partners in the express delivery industry, and e-commerce presents a trend of four divided markets and low prices. (2) Franchisees are both core customers of the express headquarters and an important link in serving express customers. The overall goal of the headquarters is highly consistent with the individual goals of franchisees, enabling the success of the franchise model. It is only by understanding the franchisee income model beyond the report that we can truly understand the essence of competition. (3) Express delivery staff costs account for the largest proportion in the entire link and are a key factor affecting efficiency and price wars. The cost of express delivery staff is relatively stable, and the rise or fall is jointly affected by the national per capita income level, supervision and social security policies, and labor supply and demand patterns.

Under the traditional model, the workload of express delivery staff is large and the efficiency of delivery is gradually slowing down.

The smooth operation in the initial stage is due to the organizational flexibility brought by the franchise system and the price advantage under extreme cost.

In the long run, the price war is a 'negative' product derived from the continuous operation of the express delivery flywheel. Although the benefits of the headquarters and franchisees playing games lie in the continuous reduction of costs and prices, they can obtain more business volume and market share. However, looking at the changes in the proportion of overall industry prices and franchise headquarters prices, the headquarters and franchisees are playing a so-called 'zero-sum game' around a period of about three years. The undifferentiated express delivery service forms the pricing power and profit differences of different brand express delivery services.

New capacity cycles do not guarantee that all companies have sufficient financing and risk resistance capabilities.

The ceiling of the single ticket profit locks the head player, making it difficult for other players to continue to subsidize rebates for competition.

The sorting and transportation links have entered the stage of refined operation, competing in units of 'cubic meter'.

The content has been translated.

Under traditional mode, the workload of deliverymen is heavy and the efficiency of delivery is gradually slowing down. Therefore, it is almost impossible for express headquarters to reduce costs by relying solely on the strategy of "ensuring that the growth rate of guaranteed item volume is greater than the decrease in single ticket delivery fee→increasing the total income of franchisees and deliverymen", if it continues to adopt the previous strategy. Therefore, the premise of the continued effectiveness of the original strategy path is to improve the efficiency of the delivery personnel, reduce the workload of deliverymen through post stations and other means, and compensate for the loss of deliverymen through collection and other individual orders. Terminal operation mode transformation combination: direct chain + post station + individual order + unmanned vehicle.

(1) Direct chain: Franchisees and headquarters promote the direct chain together, reducing transfer times and lowering end costs.

(2) Post station: Layout post stations to release the efficiency of deliverymen and enhance customer touchpoints for home delivery and customer development.

(3) Individual order: Reverse return items have advantages such as high growth, high premium, high profit margins, and high service experience thresholds; relying on economies of scale and optimization of operation models, attack for the time limit and other individual order businesses.

(4) Unmanned vehicle: Using unmanned vehicles to replace electric tricycles, transporting parcels from end network nodes to post stations or terminal customers.